In the last two months the overwhelming weight of the evidence supports this view, as the following indicators have either come in below expectations or suffered an actual downturn: core durable goods orders, the Chicago Fed National Activities Index, new home sales,
existing home sales, payroll employment, the NFIB Small
Business Index, construction spending, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, the Kansas City Fed Index, the Philadelphia Fed Survey, industrial production, the
Empire State Manufacturing Index, the NAHB Housing Index, the ADP payrolls, auto sales, real disposable income and the GDP.