As power demand growth slows from a historical average of 10 % to 3 % or less per year, the coal capacity in the pipeline, as well as
some existing coal capacity, risks becoming stranded due to low carbon capacity targets, ongoing reforms in the power sector and carbon pricing.
As of July 2016, China has 895 GW of
existing coal capacity being used less than half of the time — and perversely has 205 GW under construction and another 405 GW of capacity planned, with a total overnight capital cost of half a trillion US dollars.
Much of
the existing coal capacity in the United States was built from 1950 to 1990 during a time when electricity sales were growing much faster than population and gross domestic product.
Consequently, our proposed CES would include a percentage of natural gas when replacing
existing coal capacity, 25 coal with carbon capture and sequestration, waste - to - energy, biomass, energy efficiency and nuclear power.
Not exact matches
For example, there should be substantial new
capacity, with limited declines in
existing capacity, for several major export commodities, including
coal, iron ore, alumina and especially LNG, with growth in the latter significantly boosting exports in the December quarter 2004.
Beyond the reasonably favourable outlook for the next few years, growth in productive
capacity and exports in the resources sector over the longer term will depend on future mineral discoveries (though
existing reserves could support production and exports of some commodities, such as
coal, for a considerable time).
Transport infrastructure constraints are primarily an issue for bulk commodities such as
coal and metal ores; the volume of these commodities transported is large compared with processed minerals, and strong growth in recent years has stretched
existing transport
capacity.
Some analysts expect that
existing grid
capacity may be enough to power U.S. electric cars in the near future, yet they do not rule out the possibility of new
coal or nuclear plants coming on line if renewable energy sources are not developed
«The leadership shown by Alberta's government to replace two - thirds of
existing coal - fired electricity generation
capacity with renewable energy will greatly help the province in achieving its ambitious climate change objectives,» adds Hornung.
• New
coal - fired power plants would only be permitted when they replace
existing coal - fired
capacity (so they would not increase the total
capacity) unless they were completely clean, i.e., unless they had a way of removing carbon dioxide from emissions.
Increasing use of
existing natural gas - fired
capacity and lower use of
existing coal - fired generators
Coal plants will have to meet these standards by 2021, which will require 70 % of
existing capacity to install expensive new technologies.
British
capacity market rules allow
existing coal plants to bid for
capacity payments, alongside less carbon emitting gas.
The Department of Energy's Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on ways to compensate baseload generation, now under consideration at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, may provide some relief to
existing coal plants, but the report notes that the PJM Interconnection compensates plants for reliability through its
capacity market and that «has not yet translated into significant revenues for
coal - fired generation.»
An IER study shows that the levelized cost [vii] of new wind
capacity is 2.7 times more expensive than the levelized cost of
existing coal - fired
capacity and the levelized cost of new solar photovoltaic
capacity is 3.5 times as expensive as the levelized cost of
existing coal - fired
capacity.
[1] The Clean Energy Standard Act of 2012 defines «clean» electricity as «electricity generated at a facility placed in service after 1991 using renewable energy, qualified renewable biomass, natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power, or qualified waste - to - energy; and electricity generated at a facility placed in service after enactment that uses qualified combined heat and power (CHP), [which] generates electricity with a carbon - intensity lower than 0.82 metric tons per megawatt - hour (the equivalent of new supercritical
coal), or [electricity generated] as a result of qualified efficiency improvements or
capacity additions at
existing nuclear or hydropower facilities -LSB-; or] electricity generated at a facility that captures and stores its carbon dioxide emissions.»
* For the comparison to
existing or new NGCC, UCS assumes that the NGCC unit would run at the same
capacity factor as the
coal unit under consideration.
High - income countries should commit now to end the building of new unabated
coal - fired power generation and accelerate early retirement of
existing unabated
capacity, while middle - income countries should aim to limit new construction now and halt new builds by 2025.»
However,
existing pipelines do not have enough
capacity to meet growing demand, particularly when
coal - fired and nuclear power plants are being prematurely retired.
Nonetheless, as these problems get solved, China's (and Asia's)
existing coal - fired power
capacity can be progressively relegated to contingency use.
IEEFA finds India's wind and solar energy costs have fallen 50 % to as low as $ 38 per megawatt hour (MWh) over the past two years, with renewable energy bids in new auctions costing 20 % less than the cost of wholesale electricity from
existing Indian
coal generation, and 30 - 50 % less than the required cost to justify new imported
coal or liquefied natural gas
capacity.
Their primary concern is that a great deal of new gas
capacity will be built: 8GW are already under way and their modelling suggests another 17GW will be built as
existing plants age and
coal plants look more likely to be shut down early.
The report's authors point out that recent increases in emissions from the EU's
coal - fired power sector are not due to more
coal - fuelled facilities coming on stream, but rather because
existing plants are running at full
capacity.
[3] Each state has interim targets it must meet beginning in 2020, and the EPA proposed that states use a combination of four «building blocks» to achieve the emissions reductions: (1) improving the efficiency (heat rate) of
existing coal - fired power plants; (2) switching from
coal - fired power by increasing the use and
capacity factor, or efficiency, of natural - gas combined - cycle power plants; (3) using less carbon - intensive generating power, such as renewable energy or nuclear power; and (4) increasing demand - side energy - efficiency measures.
The chart shows needed & unneeded
coal capacity (GW) in 2020 based on
existing plants as of 2016 and under construction under different
coal plant
capacity factors and power generation growth rates.
For example, additional
capacity beyond
existing plants is only required by 2020 if power generation growth exceeds 4 % year and
coal plants are run at utilisation rate of 45 % or less.
«It is clear that China is coming to terms with the fact it does not need any more
coal capacity in a market where
existing plants are not even running half the time.
If tomorrow we suddenly replaced 30GW of
existing coal fired power -LRB-(20GWav) with 60GW wind (20GWav) but retained the present 15GW NG and 8GW hydro (1,5 GW av) how much additional pumped storage
capacity and how large total storage would be required?
Müller believes polycarbonates could serve as effective carbon sinks for the millions of tons of emissions spewed by
coal - fired plants; assuming the price tag for any such technology is within limits - and that the
capacity for economies of scale
exists - it could, as he states, be a «significant contribution» towards global efforts to slash carbon emissions.
States with low
existing renewable energy
capacities, respectively, with low potentials for adding more renewable energy
capacity, and which have a high projected
coal power dependency, are going to be in a world of economic hurt, come a carbon «Cap & Trade» law.
Returning to the point, and as noted in a previous comment, we're now seeing renewable projects being built in order to replace
existing coal plants, not because of emissions concerns per se, but because it's cheaper to build new solar or wind
capacity than it is to continue to operate the
coal plant.