Sentences with phrase «existing model estimates»

Not exact matches

Considering that existing climate models typically do not consider northeast Greenland with future sea - level projections, the findings suggest that sea - level rise estimates may err on the high side, close to 3 feet or higher, said Khan.

That's when genomic models estimate the last common ancestor of Homo sapiens, Neanderthals and Denisovans existed.

Matz and his colleagues developed a model to estimate the ability of the common coral species Acropora millepora to evolve by redistributing existing heat - tolerance genes, taking into account the coral's present - day genetic diversity and how far its larvae migrate before settling down.

Here we link previous advances in phyloclimatic modeling to develop a framework that overcomes existing methodological gaps by predicting potential ecological and geographic overlap directly from estimated ancestral trait distributions.

One approach is to develop empirical regional models that enable aragonite saturation state to be estimated from existing hydrographic measurements, for which greater spatial coverage and longer time series exist in addition to higher spatial and temporal resolution.

We have discussed what is already known about how estimates from these models agree with each other and which teachers are affected by any differences that exist.

Butler Philbrick Gordillo and Associates» argue in Valuation Based Equity Market Forecasts — Q1 2013 Update that «there is substantial value in applying simple statistical models to discover average estimates of what the future may hold over meaningful investment horizons (10 + years), while acknowledging the wide range of possibilities that exist around these averages.»

Only one of the parties involved has (1) had their claims fail scientific peer - review, (2) produced a reconstruction that is completely at odds with all other existing estimates (note that there is no sign of the anomalous 15th century warmth claimed by MM in any of the roughly dozen other model and proxy - based estimates shown here), and (3) been established to have made egregious elementary errors in other published work that render the work thoroughly invalid.

Each spreadsheet lists the model estimates of capacity additions (what electric generating capacity the model and what the states tell the model to include because of regulations); generation (how much the existing and projected units will produce); prices (including firm power prices, energy prices, capacity prices, allowance prices, natural gas prices, and renewable energy credit prices); total CO2 emissions; fuel consumption for different fuel types; and transmission flows into and out of the RGGI power grids.

Most fundamentally, the inference revolves around assuming that there exists a linear relationship, and estimating parameters in the linear relationship from climate models.

It applies a particular model to an existing dataset of climate experts and generates novel estimates from that data.

More complex models exist, and they effects other than the change in the dry bulb temperature when estimating the rate of change in the internal energy of the planet.

Existing estimates are based not on testable (let alone tested) economic models of how changes in climate generate economic costs, but on conjecture, guesswork, and sometimes simply by asking «experts» — the people who construct SCC estimates — what they think the damages from climate change might be.»

How can the characterization of damages used to estimate the SCC be improved over the next 1 - 3 years through incorporation of existing evidence or changes to modeling approaches?

They are basically calling for abandoning the existing IAMs and SCC estimates and starting from scratch, with «integrated» modules for each modeling step.

«Epistemology is here applied to problems of statistical inference during testing, the relationship between the underlying physics and the models, the epistemic meaning of ensemble statistics, problems of spatial and temporal scale, the existence or not of an unforced null for climate fluctuations, the meaning of existing uncertainty estimates, and other issues.

General Introduction Two Main Goals Identifying Patterns in Time Series Data Systematic pattern and random noise Two general aspects of time series patterns Trend Analysis Analysis of Seasonality ARIMA (Box & Jenkins) and Autocorrelations General Introduction Two Common Processes ARIMA Methodology Identification Phase Parameter Estimation Evaluation of the Model Interrupted Time Series Exponential Smoothing General Introduction Simple Exponential Smoothing Choosing the Best Value for Parameter a (alpha) Indices of Lack of Fit (Error) Seasonal and Non-seasonal Models With or Without Trend Seasonal Decomposition (Census I) General Introduction Computations X-11 Census method II seasonal adjustment Seasonal Adjustment: Basic Ideas and Terms The Census II Method Results Tables Computed by the X-11 Method Specific Description of all Results Tables Computed by the X-11 Method Distributed Lags Analysis General Purpose General Model Almon Distributed Lag Single Spectrum (Fourier) Analysis Cross-spectrum Analysis General Introduction Basic Notation and Principles Results for Each Variable The Cross-periodogram, Cross-density, Quadrature - density, and Cross-amplitude Squared Coherency, Gain, and Phase Shift How the Example Data were Created Spectrum Analysis — Basic Notations and Principles Frequency and Period The General Structural Model A Simple Example Periodogram The Problem of Leakage Padding the Time Series Tapering Data Windows and Spectral Density Estimates Preparing the Data for Analysis Results when no Periodicity in the Series Exists Fast Fourier Transformations General Introduction Computation of FFT in Time Series

If long - term persistence exists within climatic processes, and the 4AR draft says that it does (page 3 - 116, lines 53 - 54), then a more complex model, such as that used by Cohn and Lins (2005) MUST be used to estimate statistical significance.

These have been applied to existing and new models for a range of climate - sensitive diseases in order to estimate the effect of global climate change on current disease burdens and likely proportional changes in the future.

Though his model is, by his own admission, somewhat simplistic, Nordhaus says his conclusions reflect an estimated impact from global warming that is «larger than most existing estimates of market damages.»

For example, the existing global circulation models do not adequately describe the water cycle in the Amazon, with the modeled moisture convergence being half the actual amounts estimated from the observed runoff values.

Using a novel dataset of California RNG supply estimates, I construct a static, multi-market, partial equilibrium model of the California fuels markets to evaluate the supply response of RNG to existing California fuel policy, the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS).

Wild et al. (2001) proposed that 344 W m − 2 is a best estimate from models but noted that considerable uncertainties exist and especially that there were problems in accurate simulation of thermal emission from a cold, dry, cloud - free atmosphere, and a dependence on water vapor content.

That more consideration be given to modelling as a method to estimate economic outcomes for existing effectiveness trial results, and to generalise existing quality economic evaluation results to other jurisdictions.