Tom is the vice president of strategy marketing for Edison Research, a company that has conducted
exiting polling for some of the most controversial U.S. presidential elections in recent history.
Since there are
no exit polls for the referendum, unlike the general election, this is our best gauge of voter sentiment until results start trickling in from local counting areas around 1 a.m. BST.
Edison is the behind
exit polling for all U.S. presidential elections including the most recent Donald Trump - Hillary Clinton face off.
On today's episode, I talk to Tom Webster, Vice President of Strategy and Marketing for Edison Research, the organization behind
exit polling for national elections in the U.S.. For more than two decades, Tom has conducted political polling for some of the most contentious elections in U.S. history, as well as market research for some of the top companies across the nation.
There was
no exit poll for Buchanan's strong showing in the 1996 Iowa caucuses, but by eyeballing his numbers in New Hampshire and making adjustments for the more evangelical and conservative turnout model for the caucuses, we can guess that Buchanan's Iowa support came largely from religious conservatives and pro-lifers.
There was
no exit poll for the 1996 Iowa Caucuses (where Buchanan finished a very close second to Midwesterner and party - establishment favorite Bob Dole), but one would expect Buchanan to have shown similar strength there among religious and social conservatives.
I just saw
some exit polls for U.S. Senate races.
Not exact matches
According to
exit polls, the center - right Prime Minister Mark Rutte is on course
for a clear victory.
The euro reached a five - and - a-half month high against the dollar when markets opened Sunday evening as
exit polls in the French presidential election indicated a victory
for centrist Macron.
Overall, the economy was the top issue
for 60 % of voters, according to the
exit polls.
Bad news (
for markets, at least) is that ND's lead is razor thin — just 0.5 percent ahead of SYRIZA in the
exit polls.
Also of interest, the groups that were the most negative on the new economic policies were those with college degrees and people living in the Northeast, both demographics that
exit polls show voted more
for Hillary Clinton.
An earlier
exit poll indicated that the center - right alliance would gain between 248 to 268 seats in the lower house of parliament, short of the 316 needed
for a majority.
His method
for studying the validity of elections is to compare
exit poll results with official election outcomes.
For this week's Trader
Poll, tell us what's the best outcome from the June 23 referendum on a British
exit from the European Union.
It was faulty
exit polling,
for instance, that helped cause the media to incorrectly call Florida
for Al Gore in 2000.
Cohn argues that it's difficult
for exit polls to be accurate because pollers don't typically ask a respondent's race, age or income — though they do estimate the former two — making it difficult to control
for these factors when using such surveys to predict a result.
Exit polls in 2008 showed young Christians actually cast their ballots
for John McCain — and overwhelmingly so.
According to CNN's
exit polls, Romney took 43 % of Ohio Catholics on Super Tuesday, compared to 31 %
for Rick Santorum, and Romney beat Santorum overall by 38 % to 37 %.
For example, a recent Think Progress article cites a Fox News
exit poll indicating that 59 percent of Americans think abortion should be legal in all or most cases.
According to the
exit polls Romney won white voters by 59 % to 39 %
for Obama.
Meanwhile, NBC News took a «deep dive» through its
exit polls and found that «white evangelicals lacked a distinctive leader
for their cause
for the first time in three election cycles.»
As a wave of disappointed voters announced on Twitter that Trump's election has led them to drop the label evangelical, den Dulk speculated that evangelical believers who voted
for Clinton may have been less likely to identify that way in
exit polls, widening the born - again gap between the two candidates.
More
exit polling (especially in larger states) may help us see which set of self - identified evangelicals are voting
for which candidate.
According to Pew Research's
exit polls, the Catholic vote went up four percentage points
for Trump, while white evangelicals rose three points and «Other faiths» jumped six points.
The answer is closer to the latter:
Exit polls say 26 percent of American voters called themselves evangelical or born - again Christians, and of these, 74 percent voted
for McCain, with 25 percent voting
for Obama.
For example, when looking at Super Tuesday
exit polls in the southern states several things are striking.
A voter -
exit poll conducted by The New York Times and CBS showed that white «born - again» Protestants voted 61 percent
for Reagan and 34 percent
for Carter, a split which closely parallels that of other sectors of society.
As a consequence (so say the
exit polls), something like two - thirds of those voting
for Le Pen did so because they enthusiastically support her views on these subjects.
As a side note,
exit polls even made a candidate president
for a day (the final count changed the winner).
As one minister put it to me «Until the
exit poll we assumed we would be in power
for the next fifteen years.
This could be a huge problem
for the Tories - if the Tories are underperforming in Wales and are losing ground, then they start to fall short of even their awful
exit poll position.
[Clinton beat Trump in the ground game
for the presidency, according to an early
exit poll conducted by Politico / Morning Consult.]
That
exit poll will be seared in my brain
for ever.»
«
For the
exit poll seat projections to be right, Labour had to be wiped out in Scotland, the Liberal Democrats would have to be wiped out in their Tory marginals and we would have to done really badly in the English marginals,» the campaign aide recalled.
While upstate New York waits
for the Gaming Commission to approve up to four casinos, anti-casino group Save East Greenbush has released the results of an Election Day
exit poll that asked voters how they felt about a gaming hall going up on Thompson Hill Road.
Exit poll experiments have shown that voters tend to vote more sincerely
for candidates they perceive have no chance of winning.
However, as has been the case since 1992, the
exit polls were right, and election night was catastrophic
for the Conservative party and May.
For a variety of reasons (including the impact of high levels of undecided voters in a specific
poll), the actual result of an election contest may vary from the figures suggested by an opinion
poll, even if the
poll is carried out relatively close to election day, or on election day itself as in the case of
exit polls, but the likelihood of such variation is not something that can be factored into this model.
One woman
exiting a
polling place on Mt. Morris Park said that she «voted
for Joyce Johnson because she's a woman and we need change.»
A loss would heap further angst on what
exit polls have suggested will be painful night
for the Liberal Democrats right across Britain.
Labour activists put in a frantic last push to get out the vote in hundreds of make - or - break constituencies in a bid to get Jeremy Corbyn into No10 - and it seems to have had an effect, with the
exit poll predicting no overall majority
for the Conservatives.
Pointing to
exit poll data, the group argues that Clinton helped carry Virginia
for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Terry McAuliffe in Tuesday's close election.
To make matters worse, on
polling day, Galloway was reported to police
for contravening section 66 of the Representation of the People's Act by re-tweeting the results of an
exit poll while voting was still open.
A key factor in eroding the Conservatives»
poll lead in the 1992 was Black Wednesday, when the pound's disastrous
exit from the European exchange rate mechanism ruined the Tories» reputation
for economic competence.
Exit polls showed 66 percent approval among voters
for...
Writing
for The Spectator, he opened his article: «Nobody inside CCHQ was prepared
for election night's 10 pm
exit poll.
22:41 - The discrepancy between the
exit poll and the previous
polling is so severe, we start looking to «shy» voters
for an explanation.
22:56 - That being said, Prof John Curtice, who is basically the oracle
for this stuff, is saying the four per cent swing to Labour in that part of the country was about what that
exit poll predicted.
04:02 - And now the returning officer has reported George Galloway to the police,
for tweeting an
exit poll saying he would win.