They were very close to what we would
expect at their valuations.
Not exact matches
The deal values Uber
at $ 48 billion, a 30 percent drop from its most recent
valuation of $ 68 billion in 2016, and is
expected to close this month.
At $ 17 per share, above its
expected range of $ 14 to $ 16, Snap has a market
valuation of around $ 24 billion.
The company priced its IPO higher than
expected at $ 12.50 per share, a $ 1 billion
valuation.
The survey found 39 % of respondents predicted the market would value Aramco
at between $ 1 trillion and $ 1.5 trillion, with 36 %
expecting a
valuation below $ 1 trillion.
It said it
expected to price its shares
at around $ 13 to $ 14 a share, raising questions about whether the company would be valued
at less than its private company
valuation of nearly $ 2 billion.
Remember, plenty of other experienced investors are buying in
at this
valuation expecting asset - light Uber to be worth
at least $ 100 billion
at IPO — and many pundits called Fidelity nuts to invest
at a $ 17 billion pre-money just six months ago (similar accusations were hurled
at TPG and Google Ventures for giving it a $ 2 billion + mark in the summer of 2013).
Miller
expects such growth to continue, making the company a good buy even
at its relatively high
valuation of 26 times fiscal 2017 earnings.
Kostin also outlined three strategies: Secular growth, or companies where sales growth is
expected to rise
at least 10 percent for multiple years without high
valuations; firms that are investing in capital expenditures and research and development; and companies with a strong chance to be acquired.
Its initial
valuation was
expected to be
at least 30 % lower than the $ 2.4 billion it commanded from private investors like TPG Capital last summer.
As a result, he argues, we should
expect to see plenty more acquisitions like Walmart's purchase of Jet.com, as the incumbents wake up to the threat that smaller startups are posing and attempt to «hedge their own public
valuations by buying the very same unicorns that keep them awake
at night.»
The new funding is
expected to value Warby
at more than $ 1.2 billion, which was its last
valuation back in 2015.
Domestic - facing stocks have faster
expected sales and earnings growth but trade
at a nearly two point P / E multiple
valuation discount relative to stocks with high international sales.
At its current
valuation of ~ $ 67 / share, HLF has a price to economic book value ratio (price - to - EBV) of 1.2 That ratio means that the market
expects only 20 % growth in NOPAT for the remainder of HLF's existence.
«Absent material equity
valuation improvements for Ares and KKR, we
expect further conversions of Fitch - rated alternative investment managers to be decreasingly likely, given that the remaining managers generally have more incentive income which would not benefit from the lower tax rate,» said Meghan Neenan, head of North American Non-Bank Financial Institutions
at Fitch.
«
At 15x and 11x NTM EPS and FCF, the stock is trading near the upper - end of its recent
valuation range and we believe it is tough to
expect the multiple to expand,» wrote Lamba of Apple.
It's
expected to raise about $ 10 billion
at a market
valuation of $ 80 billion or more, according Cate Cadell and Julie Zhu of Reuters, who say it's China's biggest tech I.P.O. since Alibaba — a huge win for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
At its current
valuation of ~ $ 7 / share, OCLR has a price to economic book value (PEBV) of just 0.7, which implies that the market
expects OCLR's after - tax operating profit (NOPAT) to permanently decline by 30 %.
In any event, I'm pleased with the overall behavior of our stock holdings, and I
expect that we'll have plenty of opportunity to increase our exposure to market fluctuations
at more appropriate
valuations.
Equities are essentially 50 - year duration investments
at current
valuations, and even if investors are passive and don't hold any view about future market returns
at all, one of the basic principles of financial planning is to align the duration of ones assets with the
expected horizon over which the funds are
expected to be spent.
We
expect this to continue with the Apple Watch, the television, and the car, and the world will look back on today's undervaluation as a fascinating example of market inefficiency (and likewise on our
valuation at 18x earnings per share as conservative).
Valuation wise they are now
at a level where I would
expect to earn around 16 - 17 % p.a. long term which looks atractive to me despite potential short term head winds.
One way to assess broad market value and
expected returns is to look
at a relative
valuation measure and track subsequent market returns.
This isn't to say that stocks can't deliver adequate returns between now and some narrow set of future dates, but to
expect that stocks purchased
at these levels will deliver attractive long - term returns in general requires the assumption that current
valuations will remain elevated into the indefinite future.
In other words, if a very long - term investor is willing to rely on the notion that
valuations when they sell will match or exceed the unusually high
valuations of the present, that investor can reasonably
expect stocks purchased
at current levels to deliver long - term returns somewhere the range of 8 - 10 %.
I
expect we'll see
valuations at least touch historically normal levels
at some point in the next decade, and of course, our 10 - year prospective return estimates imply this.
At present, investors rely on the emergence of yet another
valuation bubble in order to perform better than the
expected return of zero that is now priced into stocks for the coming 5 - year period.
For example, if a «normal» level of short - term interest rates is 4 % and investors
expect 3 - 4 more years of zero interest rate policy, it's reasonable for stock prices to be valued today
at levels that are about 12 - 16 % above historically normal
valuations (3 - 4 years x 4 %).
In contrast, Fund returns during the advance that began in 2003 have been as intended, given the level of
valuations at which the advance began, but have been lower than I would
expect during typical bull markets.
At the market's actual 2000 peak,
valuations were so high that even a future price / peak earnings ratio of 20 could have been
expected to result in a nearly zero annualized returns over the following 10 years.
So, if ROIC is 50 % and growth comes in
at 4 % a year over the next 10 years instead of 8 % a year as you
expected - your ending
valuation will be off by quite a bit.
Based on their
valuations, Utilities are
expected to grow
at the same rate as the rest of the S&P 500, which seems unrealistic.
As the report notes, it comes
at a time when Walker is
expected to seal his # 50m move to Manchester City, after Tottenham's Premier League rivals finally agreed to match their hefty
valuation of the England international.
Coutinho only inked a fresh five - and - a-half year deal back in January, and Liverpool are
expected to play hardball over negotiations unless Barcelona pay up
at least half of Neymar's
valuation.
In intrinsic
valuation, the value of an asset is the
expected cash flows on that asset, discounted back
at a risk adjusted discount rate.
Barclays Capital's Jay Gelb the deal's
valuation appeared high
at 19 times Heinz's
expected 2014 earnings per share, but that it would enhance Berkshire's consumer portfolio.
But unless one
expects a reprise of that bubble, or
at least a reprise of the sort of enthusiasm we saw during the housing bubble (when
valuations ascended high enough to drive 10 - year prospective returns below 3 % annually), the odds of sustained durable gains from present levels are weak.
At today's
valuations, we can
expect the Total Return to be dragged down as multiples contract.
Still,
at present, there are enough headwinds from
valuations, fiscal strains, unsustainable monetary policy, sovereign default risks, and other factors that we
expect to maintain a «line» of downside protection with index put options even if we shift to a more constructive stance.
Its
valuation at over 60x earnings indicates investors
expect rapid EPS growth over the next five years.
But given today's low interest rates (recently about 2.3 % for 10 - year Treasuries) and relatively rich stock
valuations (Yale finance professor Robert Shiller's cyclically adjusted P / E ratio for the stock market recently stood
at 29.2 vs. an average of 16.7 since 1900), it would seem to strain credulity to
expect anything close to the annualized returns of close to the annualized return of 10 % for stocks and 5 % for bonds over the past 90 years or so, let alone the dizzying gains the market has generated from its post-financial crisis lows.
However, if you add that into the near - term 10 % compound annual growth for the company's EPS that is
expected by
at least one professional analysis firm, you've got a case for double - digit total return very quickly (assuming the
valuation doesn't compress).
We ARE
at insane
valuations, and I
expect a «mean reversion» in the next 2 years.
This
valuation looks inexpensive on an absolute basis, and especially when we factor in the high earnings growth expectations: With a PE multiple of 15.6 and an
expected EPS growth rate of 21 % Lowe's trades
at a PEG ratio of just 0.74.
With charts like this, looking
at relative
valuation, you can
expect some «mean reversion» over time and you have to make a judgement about what you think is an appropriate level of premium / discount, and in turn, what you think is an attractive level.
use as the intercept the structural alpha for the factor or strategy (P); by definition structural alpha is
expected return
at a neutral
valuation.
That being said, even
at today's historically attractive
valuation multiples, investors should likely only
expect to earn a potential total annual return of about 5.9 % to 6.9 % (1.9 % yield plus 4 % to 5 % annual earnings growth) over the next decade, far below the company's historical return rate and the returns offered by most other dividend aristocrats.
I
expect to publish a performance - related post or two, but timeliness dictates I first take a closer look
at what's hot or not in The Great Irish Share
Valuation Project.
I'm merely stating that after funding the pension (in line with mgmt comments) and paying the
expected dividend (while not an obligation to shareholders, mgmt knows the company's relative
valuation is
at least partially based on its yield relative to peers and will not likely cut it) there is no capital left for growth, share repurchaes or to raise the dividend.
I update my
valuation regularly, anyway, so I
expect to incorporate any actual share dilution
at least once a quarter.