This is why we do not
expect equity valuation multiples to revert to historical means.
Not exact matches
When you purchase a broad swath of
equities, say an S&P 500 index fund, the returns you can
expect over the next decade or so comprise four building blocks: the starting dividend yield, projected growth in real earnings per share,
expected inflation, and the
expected change in «
valuation» — that is, the expansion or contraction in the price / earnings (P / E) multiple.
You can
expect both groups to require a
valuation — usually to be performed by appraisers of their choice — whenever a company seeks either a significant increase in credit or a new infusion of
equity capital.
This helps explain our preference for European, Japanese and emerging market (EM
equities), where
valuations look more reasonable and gains have been driven more by
expected earnings growth.
«Absent material
equity valuation improvements for Ares and KKR, we
expect further conversions of Fitch - rated alternative investment managers to be decreasingly likely, given that the remaining managers generally have more incentive income which would not benefit from the lower tax rate,» said Meghan Neenan, head of North American Non-Bank Financial Institutions at Fitch.
Equities are essentially 50 - year duration investments at current
valuations, and even if investors are passive and don't hold any view about future market returns at all, one of the basic principles of financial planning is to align the duration of ones assets with the
expected horizon over which the funds are
expected to be spent.
Stock markets are tumbling int he wake of the decision but given the recent strength in
equities, in the face of the rising interest rate expectations, we don't
expect a serious move lower after the decision, despite the
valuation concerns.
Until the developed stock markets retreat from record levels of
valuation, we
expect to have less portfolio exposure to
equities going forward and more exposure to event driven situations such as liquidations and reorganizations that are not so dependent on the vicissitudes of the stock market for their investment return.
What will the subordination of the
equity class mean for the range of
valuations that can be
expected over the next couple of years?
This helps explain our preference for European, Japanese and emerging market (EM
equities), where
valuations look more reasonable and gains have been driven more by
expected earnings growth.
We wouldn't
expect repeat performances in 2014, as our winners and their rivals will wrestle with lofty
equity valuations, policy - related volatility, a still - recovering economy, and the specter of rising rates.
Also given the low growth, low inflation and low interest rate environment and the somewhat above average
valuation numbers, one has to
expect lower nominal returns from
equities as compared to the past.
This is logical: given the same
expected cash flows, it would not be reasonable for the
equity's value to depend on the
valuation method.
Low Quality's Round Trip Bad News Bulls Stock Performance Following the Recognition of Recession The Beginning of the Middle Experimenting with the Market's Median
Valuation Anchored Inflation Expectations and the
Expected Misery Index Consumer Spending Break - Down Recessions and the Duration of Bad News Price - to - Sales Ratio May Prove Valuable International Markets Show Important Divergences Fixed Investment and the Technology Rally Global Yield Curves, Earnings Growth, and Sector Returns Recessions and Stock Prices Adjusting P / E Ratios for the Market Cycle Private
Equity and Market
Valuation Must Stocks Rise Following a Cut in the Fed Funds Rate?
In the context of your series on
valuation metrics and
equity expected returns, I'd be interested in your thoughts on our meta - study of market
expected returns using various smoothed PE ratios, the Q ratio, mkt cap / GNP and regression to trend measures.
The amount of return you can
expect from a diversified
equity portfolio is inversely correlated to the market
valuation at the start of the holding period.
However, based on current
valuations (using the Shiller CAPE ratio as of May),
expected returns on U.S. stocks are now only about 6.1 %, while those for international
equities are 7.9 %.