Interest rates change in response to a number of things including revised
expectations about inflation, and such changes in the prevailing level of interest rates affects the value of all outstanding bonds.
The bond markets are extremely active, with interest rates constantly changing in response to a number of factors including changes in the supply and demand of credit, Federal Reserve policy, fiscal policy, exchange rates, economic conditions, market psychology and, above all, changes in
expectations about inflation.
Longer duration bond returns should reflect
expectations about inflation.
The closely watched 10 - year yield topped 3 per cent last week for the first time since 2014, on the back of rising
expectations about inflation and rates.
Another class of theories argues, with some circularity, that inflation is determined by
expectations about inflation.
The model on which it was based is a marvel of restrictive assumptions: an economy that is closed to trade,
expectations about inflation that are essentially myopic, interest rates that are largely impervious to the demand for credit and investment that is largely impervious to interest rates.
ECB executive board member Benoit Coeure said the bank was working hard to prevent public
expectations about inflation from becoming entrenched «on either side» — neither too high nor too low.
During a Saturday session at the symposium, such a slump in
expectations about inflation and about other aspects of the economy was cited as a central problem complicating central banks» efforts to reach inflation targets and dimming prospects in Japan and Europe.
Not exact matches
There also was concern around the table
about what a faster drop in value would do to
inflation expectations.
Given the fragile nature of price
expectations and the importance of getting actual
inflation back towards 2 1/2 per cent relatively quickly to reinforce the stability of price
expectations, the response of policy, even with the benefit of hindsight, seems
about right (Graph 3).
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If, as I have indicated, the U.S. growth and
inflation outlooks have not changed notably, then why have
expectations about U.S. monetary policy shifted so much?
We would not be too fretted if actual
inflation moves
about a bit over the short term, provided price
expectations do not change (i.e. we stay on this short - run curve).
Such an assessment focuses on analyzing the extent to which longer - run
inflation expectations remain well - anchored, and on learning more
about how agents update and revise their
expectations in response to new information.»
About the Survey of Consumer Expectations The SCE contains information about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing and education to be
About the Survey of Consumer
Expectations The SCE contains information
about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing and education to be
about how consumers expect overall
inflation and prices for food, gas, housing and education to behave.
The result is very low long term real rates, sluggish growth
expectations, concerns
about the ability even over the fairly long term to get
inflation to average 2 percent, and a sense that the Fed and the world's major central banks will not be able to normalize financial conditions in the foreseeable future.
Mishkin noted «I am less optimistic
about the prospects for core PCE
inflation to move much below 2 % in the absence of a determined effort by monetary policy,» adding that «a substantial further decline in
inflation would require a shift in
expectations, and such a shift could be difficult and time - consuming to bring
about.»
For intermediate - and longer - term bond yields, it's all
about inflation and growth
expectations.
That could mean investors are moving money out of stocks and into bonds in anticipation of disappointing earnings; or that foreigners who are worried
about their own economies are looking for a safer haven in the U.S.; or that
expectations of future
inflation have declined, allowing long - term interest rates to come down a little.
Inflation expectations remain well anchored at
about 2 per cent.
And then we've talked
about elevated media
inflation is our
expectation right now.
Monetary policy: continued investment recovery, unemployment and
inflation expectations are key; energy prices less so «The year - on - year rate of increase in the CPI is likely to be
about 0 percent for the time being, due to the effects of the decline in energy prices.»
The long end of the curve when talking
about US Treasury bonds is all
about inflation expectations.
This is why Mario Draghi, the central bank president, and other top central bankers talk a lot
about «
inflation expectations.»
The yields on these bonds reflect investor
expectations about many things, such as future growth rates and
inflation.
As a result of what happened during just one of the past twenty decades (the 1970s), most people now believe that a large rise in «price
inflation» or
inflation expectations is needed to bring
about a major rally in the gold price.
Wage bargaining generally may not be very responsive to unemployment; wage bargains in a particular leading sector may reflect conditions in that sector, but then be transmitted, through concerns
about relativities, into other sector s which experience quite different conditions; wage negotiator s may have unduly high
expectations of future
inflation in mind when striking their bargains.
While the
inflation impact from higher oil prices and commodity prices in general, continue to pump up
inflation expectation and push bond yields higher, keep in mind that much of the recent spike in Yields is
about as much
about supply as it is
about inflation.
Confidence
about Britain's economic recovery has been dented, with the Bank of England lowering its growth forecast and raising
expectations of
inflation.
Interestingly, the committee's conclusion with respect to exit exams does not pick up on the full report's emphasis on the importance of the design features of incentive systems, which include warnings that tests aimed at ensuring minimum competency may lower
expectations, and concerns
about both the potential narrowing of the curriculum and the tendency for score
inflation on a known test.
The monetary authorities are no doubt concerned
about inflation (the eurozone rate is above the ECB's target; they held off from making a rate cut; the Fed, despite focusing on core
inflation rates, no doubt has also noticed the increase in
inflation expectations).
And if you look at a common gauge of future
inflation expectations — the difference between the yield on long - term Treasury bonds and that of Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities, now about 1.8 to two percentage points — investors apparently believe inflation will continue to mosey along at a relatively sluggish rate well into th
inflation expectations — the difference between the yield on long - term Treasury bonds and that of Treasury
Inflation - Protected Securities, now about 1.8 to two percentage points — investors apparently believe inflation will continue to mosey along at a relatively sluggish rate well into th
Inflation - Protected Securities, now
about 1.8 to two percentage points — investors apparently believe
inflation will continue to mosey along at a relatively sluggish rate well into th
inflation will continue to mosey along at a relatively sluggish rate well into the future.
Cunningham calculates that an uptick in long - term interest rates of half a percentage point (50 basis points) with no change to
inflation — or
inflation expectations — would cause the price of the 2036 Government of Canada RRB described above to drop in value by
about 10 %.
You see, doubts on future rate hike apparently began to grow because the minutes revealed that Fed officials were worried
about inflation and
inflation expectations.
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ABOUT UNREALISTIC
EXPECTATIONS... Individual investors told researchers for the Natixis Global Asset Management Survey that they need annual returns of 9.7 % above
inflation to meet their financial goals.
If we have a real return
expectation of zero in bonds and say 4.5 % in stocks, then we're looking at a long - term return
expectation of
about 2.25 % above
inflation on a portfolio split evenly between stocks and bonds.
A steep yield curve generally means that
inflation expectations are rising or there is great uncertainty of the future, as it implies that people are either (1) reluctant to buy longer term bonds, or (2) are are keeping their funds liquid because they feel uncertain
about the future.
Household survey measures of
expectations for year - ahead
inflation jumped in March to their highest levels in
about two years; in contrast, survey measures of longer - term
inflation expectations were unchanged or up slightly...
«Rising
inflation expectations are more than countered by the rise in U.S. Treasury yields and
expectations about upcoming rate hikes by the Fed.
Equities futures were pointing to a higher opening for U.S. stocks Tuesday morning as the 10 - year Treasury yield paused close to a level that apparently has concerned some market participants because of what it says
about inflation expectations and the potential to dent corporate borrowing...
He said he doesn't take much stock in consumer surveys
about inflation expectations because most people have been ingrained to expect
inflation in the future, not deflation.