Not exact matches
«A lot of investors, up until recently, have been buying
on the
expectation that
valuations canjust keep going up.»
-- The bank was upgraded to «outperform» from «underperform» at Macquarie based
on low
expectations and an attractive
valuation.
It is not difficult to predict profit margins will fall under regulation and that current market cap
valuations are predicated
on unrealistic
expectations.
Daily - deal pioneer Groupon and social - gaming firm Zynga, which both achieved big
valuations based
on little more than high
expectations, are tanking.
Other companies facing similar questions about whether they can make good
on early investor
expectations — and lofty private - market
valuations — include online storage service Dropbox Inc., note - taking company Evernote Corp., music - streaming service Deezer SA and blood - testing company Theranos Inc., said Anand Sanwal, chief executive officer of CB Insights, a firm that tracks startup investing.
2)
Valuation: based
on the
expectations embedded in stock prices.
Because our model focuses
on quantifying the market's
expectations for the future financial performance of a company as embedded in the stock price, we need a more dynamic DCF model than the traditional models that force the
valuation of every stock into a 5 or 10 - year forecast horizon.
Of course, a lot of the future performance in tech depends
on where current
valuations and
expectations lie.
B)
Valuation: based
on the
expectations embedded in stock prices.
These financial uncertainties are likely to retard consumer sentiment in the short run until market
expectations both
on the future of oil prices and the housing market
valuations stabilize.
Our monthly market
valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious
expectations on investment returns.
Disappointing earnings In one way or another, the majority of 3D printing stocks disappointed
on Wall Street
expectations in 2014; coupled with the sector's lofty
valuations, it seems likely that this was a major contributor to the space suffering a down year.
Our actual
expectation is that the completion of the current market cycle is likely to wipe out the entire total return of the S&P 500 — in excess of Treasury bill returns — all the way back to roughly October 1997; an outcome that would require a market retreat no larger than it experienced in the past two cycles, and that would not even carry historically reliable
valuation measures to materially undervalued levels (see When You Look Back
On This Moment In History).
These performance spreads are driven by
valuations,
expectations, and often simply greed and fear being played out
on an industry level.
In any case, investors should keep in mind that the stock market's reaction to Fed cuts has historically been dependent
on other conditions such as
valuations, economic
expectations and the slope of the yield curve.
But when you parse the data
on important metrics like
valuation and growth
expectations, some interesting patterns surface.
Those
valuations were based
on expectations about the future income the buildings would produce.
Stocks with very strong
valuations on current earnings may come with lowered
expectations on future earnings, which is why value investors are often called contrarian.
Valuation is an important driver behind stock prices, and it is based
on future
expectations that can only be estimated.
We combine our medium term
expectations of fixed income asset class risk and return with shorter term views
on market
valuation, cyclical developments and liquidity considerations, matched against the Fund's objectives to develop appropriate asset allocation of the Fund.
For example, the safe withdrawal rate changes over time depending
on equity
valuations and the safe withdrawal rate can be vastly different depending
on your age and
expectations about Social Security, see two case studies I did recently at ChooseFI and last week here
on our blog.
Considering the aggressive
expectations for profit margins, the market's
valuation based
on expected results may be as stretched as it is
on trailing fundamentals.
Note that
on the basis of this measure, expected 12 - year S&P 500 total returns associated with current
valuation levels are negative, and even if one was to shift the blue line up somewhat closer to the red line in recent years, the associated return
expectation would still be close to zero (which is what I actually expect based
on MarketCap / GVA and other historically reliable measures).
Attractive
valuation based
on future
expectations for corporate earnings.
This
valuation looks inexpensive
on an absolute basis, and especially when we factor in the high earnings growth
expectations: With a PE multiple of 15.6 and an expected EPS growth rate of 21 % Lowe's trades at a PEG ratio of just 0.74.
Our actual
expectation is that the completion of the current market cycle is likely to wipe out the entire total return of the S&P 500 — in excess of Treasury bill returns — all the way back to roughly October 1997; an outcome that would require a market retreat no larger than it experienced in the past two cycles, and that would not even carry historically reliable
valuation measures to materially undervalued levels (see When You Look Back
On This Moment In History).
While we often have very strong views about long - term and full - cycle market outcomes (based
on valuation measures that we find strongly correlated with those outcomes in market cycles across history), we rarely have pointed short - term market
expectations.
In contrast, the impact of an increase in inflation
expectations has a more muted impact
on equity
valuations as the impact of the higher cost of capital is offset by higher nominal earnings growth.
The Paradox of the Zero Bound Subpar Economic Recovery Gets Premium Market
Valuation Wall Street Earnings
Expectations Ignore Economic Divergences The Great Divergence An Update
on International Market
Valuations Business Cycles, Election Cycles, and Potential Risks An Update
on Valuations and Forward Earnings Assumptions Bond Yields, Earnings Yields, and Inflation A View from the NBER Recession Indicators Three Observations
on Third Quarter Earnings Forward Looking Measures Still Don't Provide Evidence for a V - Shaped Recovery This Earnings Season, Watch Sales Forward Earnings Imply a Return to Near - Record Profit Margins Without Phoenix Stocks, Volume Continues to Contract Is the Job Market Ready for a Recovery?
But when you parse the data
on important metrics like
valuation and growth
expectations, some interesting patterns surface.
However, if one has been playing the buy - and - hold game with quality securities, one has been exposed to a substantial amount of market risk because the
valuations placed
on these securities have implied overly rosy scenarios prone to popular revision in times of more realistic
expectation.
Their
valuations are built
on low
expectations, which leaves room for multiple expansion, or at least minimal contraction.
Despite the
expectation of more volatility, we continue to focus
on wide moat, large - capitalization companies that are trading at reasonable
valuations, in our view.
Spotify
on Tuesday went public following months of preparations, having debuted
on the New York Stock Exchange at $ 165.90 per share, with that figure amounting to a
valuation of $ 29.5 billion, significantly above the startup's
expectations and recent estimates which stood at just north of $ 20 billion.
So while some venture funds may be doing their best to inflate
expectations and cash in
on high
valuations, that appears to be causing problems only at the small end of the startup pool — for now.
In addition, attendees will get the latest information
on best practices in operations and marketing,
valuation trends and investor
expectations.