ii) They were probably confused by the observation of a cooling stratosphere whilst the sun was more active when the established ideas would have
expected a warming stratosphere from a more active sun.
Not exact matches
When putting this in context with the recent global
warming, then there seems to be some sticky points, namely that one would
expect that an intensification in the UV emission (due to a more active sun) would result in a
warmer stratosphere — not?
Since 1995, there has been no cooling of the lower
stratosphere but no real
warming which one would
expect due to the rebound of ozone.
In the absence of ozone, added atmospheric CO2 would be
expected to
warm the
stratosphere slightly rather than cool it.
In essence, the
stratosphere warms, while the radiating temperature remains constant if there is no spectral shift, and declines if there is (as one would
expect to happen).
The troposphere doesn't exhibit a hot spot, the
stratosphere isn't cooling, the oceans are not accumulating heat, the
warming has been 40 % of that
expected, and the models are inching close to falsification.
Indeed that poleward shift was supposed to be accompanied by a tropospheric hot spot as the enhanced upward energy flux was then constrained by extra GHGs so that the «surplus» energy was retained in the troposphere and thereby denied to the
stratosphere which then cooled as per observations and despite the «normal»
warming of the
stratosphere that would otherwise have been
expected from the highly active sun at the time.
In addition, if the
warming had been caused by an increase in the Sun's energy, we would
expect to see
warming throughout the layers of the atmosphere, from the surface all the way up through the
stratosphere.
One might
expect from a simplistic view of the atmosphere that this would make the
stratosphere warmer and troposphere cooler.
«A second smoking gun is that if the sun were responsible for global
warming, we would
expect to see
warming throughout all layers of the atmosphere, from the surface all the way up to the upper atmosphere (
stratosphere).
Cooling temperatures in the
stratosphere are
expected in a world that is
warming due to the buildup in greenhouse gases, as more heat is trapped in the lower atmosphere.
The layers above the
stratosphere are
expected to cool as a result of global
warming as well, for similar reasons (less heat reaching higher levels as it's trapped in the lower atmosphere).
If a more active sun were to
warm the
stratosphere I would
expect to see a negative AO from an intensified inversion at the tropopause with more equatorward jets and not a positive AO with more poleward jets.
Their conclusions: [2] Increasing concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, especially CO2, are
expected to
warm the troposphere and cool the
stratosphere, mesosphere, and thermosphere.
Physically, one could
expect a slight decrease in surface evaporation (a «dimming» effect) and related changes to precipitation, a
warming of the tropopause and lower
stratosphere (and changes in static stability), increased Eurasian «winter
warming» effects (related to shifts in the wind patterns as are seen in the aftermath ofvolcanoes).
Physically, one could
expect a slight decrease in surface evaporation (a «dimming» effect) and related changes to precipitation, a
warming of the tropopause and lower
stratosphere (and changes in static stability), increased Eurasian «winter
warming» effects (related to shifts in the wind patterns as are seen in the aftermath of volcanoes).