That dwarfs what savings accounts are paying these days, though it is less than the long - term
expected return from the stock market.
Not exact matches
Looking back through history, whenever value
stocks have gotten this cheap, subsequent long - term
returns have generally been strong.3
From current depressed valuation levels, value
stocks have in the past, on average, doubled over the next five years.4 Not that we necessarily
expect returns of this magnitude this time around, but based on the data and our six decades of experience investing through various
market cycles, we believe the current risk / reward proposition is heavily skewed in favor of long - term value investors.
Until the developed
stock markets retreat
from record levels of valuation, we
expect to have less portfolio exposure to equities going forward and more exposure to event driven situations such as liquidations and reorganizations that are not so dependent on the vicissitudes of the
stock market for their investment
return.
But given today's low interest rates (recently about 2.3 % for 10 - year Treasuries) and relatively rich
stock valuations (Yale finance professor Robert Shiller's cyclically adjusted P / E ratio for the
stock market recently stood at 29.2 vs. an average of 16.7 since 1900), it would seem to strain credulity to
expect anything close to the annualized
returns of close to the annualized
return of 10 % for
stocks and 5 % for bonds over the past 90 years or so, let alone the dizzying gains the
market has generated
from its post-financial crisis lows.
To filter out what he calls «short term noise in earnings,» and get a measure that affords a better fix on what kind of prospective
returns one can
expect from stocks, John calculated the
market's P / E using the highest earnings posted over the preceding decade.
Similarly, within
stocks, it's pretty clear that smaller companies and emerging
markets are dicier propositions than blue chip companies, so it seems reasonable to
expect some extra
return — even if the extra
return from small
stocks isn't as great as history suggests.
The investment manager
expects to hold an unhedged, fully - invested position in common
stocks in environments where the
expected return from market risk is believed to be high, and may reduce or «hedge» the exposure of the Fund's
stock portfolio to the impact of general
market fluctuations in environments where the
expected return from market risk is believed to be unfavorable.
The investment manager
expects to intentionally «leverage» or increase the
stock market exposure of the Fund in environments where the
expected return from market risk is believed to be high, and may reduce or «hedge» the exposure of the Fund's
stock portfolio to the impact of general
market fluctuations in environments where the
expected return from market risk is believed to be unfavorable.
The three quality smart beta ETFs below have delivered respectable
returns during the bull
market over the last year and, as
expected from stocks with strong fundamentals, steady longer term
returns (3 - year).
So, if you can just show, for example, that the odds of a
stock market crash are far higher in years when the P - E ratio is much higher than average (or for housing crashes the buy - rent, or price - household income ratio), or that the
expected risk - adjusted long run
return is much lower than average, or other «anomalies» (anomalous to the EMH) like this, then you can show that the EMH is substantially far
from the truth.
Also there's an international impact too where people overseas are mostly buying in big coastal cities like SF, LA, NYC, etc. — re: oppt cost with
stocks, one thing I keep hearing again and again is that in today's
market with interest rates at record lows (98 % percentile compared to all of history), we can not just
expect the same 6 - 7 % real
return from stocks going forward, and that is will be a lot lower than that.
No matter where
markets are on the continuum
from very cheap to very expensive, traditional Advisors will make recommendations on the assumption that investors should
expect 6.5 % inflation adjusted
returns on
stocks over all investment horizons.
The same economic pressures that are keeping interest rates low are also
expected to depress
returns from stocks and bonds, said Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC World
Markets.
The first is the
market premium (or equity premium), which is simply the
expected excess
return from stocks compared with risk - free investments like T - bills.
But with the levels of dividends, profit growth and valuation
expected over the next five years it would suggest to me a 5 % to 7 %
return from the overall
stock market.