Sentences with phrase «expert judgment in»

Monster simplification is formalized in the IPCC AR3 and AR4 by guidelines for characterizing uncertainty in a consensus approach consisting of expert judgment in the context of a subjective Bayesian analysis (Moss and Schneider 2000).

The key messages were developed during technical discussions and expert deliberation at a two - day meeting of the eight chapter Lead Authors, plus Susan Hassol and Daniel Glick, held in Boulder, Colorado May 8 - 9, 2012; through multiple technical discussions via six teleconferences from January through June 2012, and an author team call to finalize the Traceable Account draft language on Oct 12, 2012; and through other various communications on points of detail and issues of expert judgment in the interim.

It detected cognates correctly and in agreement with expert judgments in 89.5 % of all cases.

Not exact matches

«There is little or no evidence of cases in which expert judgment does better than intelligently constructed formulas,» Kahneman said.

According to Keith Rabois, a Khosla Ventures partner and former executive at LinkedIn, PayPal, and Square, areas that require human expert judgment, like healthcare and law, are most likely to see disruption in the coming years.

«And it's finally possible now to use data and machine learning techniques to replace the judgment of experts in law and in healthcare,» he said.

The Board has determined, in its business judgment, that each member of the AEC (Lloyd H. Dean, Enrique Hernandez, Jr., Robert L. Joss, Cynthia H. Milligan, Nicholas G. Moore, Philip J. Quigley, and Susan G. Swenson) is financially literate as required by NYSE rules, and that each member qualifies as an «audit committee financial expert» as defined by SEC regulations.

The Board has determined, in its business judgment, that each current member of the AEC (John D. Baker II, Lloyd H. Dean, Enrique Hernandez, Jr., Robert L. Joss, Cynthia H. Milligan, Nicholas G. Moore, Philip J. Quigley, and Susan G. Swenson) is financially literate as required by NYSE rules, and that each member qualifies as an «audit committee financial expert» as defined by SEC regulations.

At least one member of the Committee shall in the judgment of the Board be an «audit committee financial expert,» as defined by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the «SEC»).

The Board has determined, in its business judgment, that each member of the AEC is financially literate as required by NYSE rules and qualifies as an «audit committee financial expert» as defined by SEC regulations.

Our industry experience, attention to detail and expert judgment result in accurate, highly defendable tax credit calculations.

And just as Emily, the woman mentioned in the blog post, experienced, rather than getting good guidance from the experts, parents end up insecure about their own capabilities, simply forgetting about the importance of their own judgment or even feeling guilty for having ideas and feelings that don't seem to match their noble motives.

«Many experts estimate that less than 1 percent of the recreational diving population possesses the knowledge, skills, attitude, and judgment needed to cave dive as safely as possible,» says Johnny Richards, a former attorney who now works full - time as a cave diving instructor in northern Florida and runs the informational Web site CaveDiving.com.

This is the source of both unconscious biases that may lead to bad judgments, and the insight from experts with significant experience in a specific situation.

«We have still not exhausted the full potential of computational methods in historical linguistics, and it is almost certain that future algorithms will bring us even closer to expert's judgments,» he says.

They add that by using this comparison the model quantifies expertise — or the value of expert judgments — as being equal to a specific number of data points collected in the field.

As a result, the Committee's recommendations for award levels are based more heavily on expert judgment than has been the case in the past.

Structured expert judgment has been used for decades in fields where scenarios have high degrees of uncertainty, most notably nuclear - energy generation, Oppenheimer explained.

All human brains share basic anatomical circuits and synaptic interactions, but the precise pattern of connections and interactions are highly variable from person to person — and therein lies the source of the remarkable variation we see in human behavior — from the breathtaking dance of a ballerina, to the elegant craftsmanship of a master carpenter, to the shrewd judgment of an expert trader.

One sword hit will take you down, so you might find yourself partaking in a patient bout of mind chess as you tentatively look for a gap in your opponent's defenses, using your expert judgment to parry and disarm your nemesis as they go in for the kill, for example.

States will also benefit from supporting Peer Assistance and Review models that identify teachers who are struggling, provide them with intensive, expert assistance from mentor teachers in their content areas, and make a timely judgment about continued employment that is grounded in useful evidence, intensive support, and due process.

Students are best served when they have access to both expert judgment and the types of algorithmic supports possible in personalized learning environments.

Many people claim to be expert judges of the quality of standards but no one's judgment has been validated by actual improvement in student performance.

Experts also tend to get overly confident in their judgment and discount contrary evidence.

Currently, many teachers view observation as the same thing as evaluation when in fact these structures (informal, formal and walkthrough observations) provide a means for gathering what Charlotte Danielson, Dr. Robert Marzano and others experts refer to as a preponderance of evidence in order to make a reasoned judgment about a teacher's overall practice.

Many teachers unions also favor getting rid of bad educators, not based strictly on test scores or the subjective judgment of principals, but through «peer review» plans which call for expert teachers to come into a school and work with struggling educators and in some cases recommend termination.

It may also be asked to support decisions about compensation, as policymakers are increasingly interested in tying compensation to judgments about teacher effectiveness, either by differentiating wages or by linking such judgments to specific responsibilities and salary increments for more expert teachers.

As Rick Hanushek has carefully demonstrated in the context of education spending adequacy lawsuits, the «professional judgment» or «expert panel» method is completely unreliable: He writes:

These guidelines are the product of nearly a year's work by experts in the field of autistic spectrum disorders and are based on validated scientific evidence, clinical experience and clinical judgment.

Second, we applied two strategies — consensus scoring and a rank - ordering method — to estimate comparability in Year 1 of the NH PACE pilot based upon the expert judgment of 85 teachers using 505 student work samples.

«Buy - in isn't here as a separate thing because expert judgment plays a part,» said Joanne Weiss, the department's Race to the Top director, noting that some states, for example, don't have teachers» unions.

Assessing organisational capacity will rightly draw heavily on the RSCs» expert judgment, but as a guideline, one useful measure would be the proportion of the schools currently in the chain with performance below key thresholds.

Even if there is genius to be found in what has been developed so far — and surely several candidates come to mind (some across multiple generations like Shigeru Miyamoto, Dave Jones, Keiji Inafune, or Hideo Kojima, others isolated to momentary shifts like Warren Robinett, David Crane, or Fukio Mitsuji)-- its success was measured and affected in large part by children and mainstream America, not the judgment of other experts in the field.

Jerry Taylor, an economist at the Cato Institute, also sharply criticized the scientists» statement, saying, «I do not believe that «the experts» in any field should be dictating climate policy because there are plenty of important value judgments built in to those policies, and experts, however defined, have no objectively better values than you or I.»

I remember reading this quote in which you refer to Taylor: «I do not believe that «the experts» in any field should be dictating climate policy because there are plenty of important value judgments built in to those policies and experts however defined have no objectively better values than you or I.» I thought about that statement all day.

I understand why you only went back to 1983, but based on your expert judgment and the analysis you have done, how far back in time would you expect the NATL and EPAC data to be reliable?

In chapter 11.3.6.3 they conclude: ``... it is concluded that the hiatus is attributable, in roughly equal measure, to a decline in the rate of increase in effective radiative forcing (ERF) and a cooling contribution from internal variability (expert judgment, medium confidence)»In chapter 11.3.6.3 they conclude: ``... it is concluded that the hiatus is attributable, in roughly equal measure, to a decline in the rate of increase in effective radiative forcing (ERF) and a cooling contribution from internal variability (expert judgment, medium confidence)»in roughly equal measure, to a decline in the rate of increase in effective radiative forcing (ERF) and a cooling contribution from internal variability (expert judgment, medium confidence)»in the rate of increase in effective radiative forcing (ERF) and a cooling contribution from internal variability (expert judgment, medium confidence)»in effective radiative forcing (ERF) and a cooling contribution from internal variability (expert judgment, medium confidence)».

For Rob — projections and details vary; here, for example: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320711004460#FCANote «the best estimate (solid bar) and likely range (grey bar) for six SRES scenarios, based on both the model results in the left part of the figure and expert judgment derived from a variety of additional information.

The IPCC's consensus building process relies heavily on expert judgment; if the public and the policy makers no longer trust these particular experts, then we can expect a very different dynamic to be in play with regards to the reception of the AR5 relative to the AR4.

Yet as Ronald Bailey notes, the whole reason the Administration's Plan - B rules ended up in court in the first place was that political officials overruled the FDA's expert judgment.

Since scientific theories are not «real» the public must rely on the judgment of the experts in deciding public policy.

Your assessment of the underlying logic undoubtedly underlies the reasoning process of many of the experts making the judgments in the IPCC assessment

Indeed, there are examples in IPCC reports of willingness to acknowledge the importance of expert (subjective) judgment, if on a limited basis (e.g., see discussions of climate sensitivity, detection and attribution and climate and weather extremes in WGI report, assessment of response strategies in the WGII report of AR4; see also Knutti and Hegerl (2008) for futher details on the role of expert judgement in estimating climate sensitivity).

Citing «great hydrologic and climate uncertainty,» one expert quoted by CSM puts forth a new climate wisdom that has as yet to catch on widely: «We can't necessarily count on what we saw in the past as the judgment of where storms are going to be in the future.»

But if you firmly hold that you have a significant conclusion on this somewhat esoteric topic, the place to have that conclusion tested is in the published scientific literature - that's what peer review is all about, to provide a mechanism for an adjudicated evaluation and judgment of your argument by experts.

Recall that the IPCC AR4 states that equilibrium climate sensitivity is likely (> 66 %) to lie in the range 2 — 4.5 C and very unlikely (< 10 %) to lie below 1.5 C. Annan and Hargreaves find that it is very unlikely to be above 4.5 C in the context of a Bayesian analysis, as a result of prior selection and expert judgment.

My judgment is on which side of the argument has the experts that impress me more, and I'll let you in on some bad news — its not the skeptics.

In other words, the link between stronger hurricanes and global warming is a theory (expert judgment) and is not a conclusion of the IPCC.

The Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties impose upon the lead authors to assign subjective levels of confidence to their findings: «The AR5 will rely on two metrics for communicating the degree of certainty in key findings: 1 Confidence in the validity of a finding, based on the type, amount, quality, and consistency of evidence (e.g., mechanistic understanding, theory, data, models, expert judgment) and the degree of agreement.

However, the Committee believes that the nature of the IPCC's task (i.e., in presenting a series of expert judgments on issues of great societal relevance) demands that the IPCC pay special attention to issues of independence and bias to maintain the integrity of, and public confidence in, its results.