Note that the consistency between modeled and observed temperature trends is not an attribution, and is not taken to be by
experts in the attribution field.
Not exact matches
Legal
experts, speaking on a not - for -
attribution basis because precise measures have not been announced, said one possibility is the government might change the Competition Act to say that «abuse of a dominant position» would include «exploitative pricing» or,
in effect, charging too much.
Earlier this month, it was revealed that Sotheby's auction house sold Frans Hals's Portrait of Man for $ 10m
in 2011, a work which rival Christie's had passed on because its
experts were not satisfied with the provenance and
attribution.
«The approaches used
in detection and
attribution research described above can not fully account for all uncertainties, and thus ultimately
expert judgement is required to give a calibrated assessment of whether a specific cause is responsible for a given climate change.
But what I have read suggests to me that 1) for some reason climate scientists eschewed established methods for
attribution in favor of a newly invented one, 2) overly relied upon
expert judgement
in favor of direct refutation of alternatives, and 3) ended up steering a tortuous but narrow path through what should have been a much broader logic tree resolution.
In this case, the committee might have discovered more than a few papers by one of them on the subject, such as Risbey and Kandlikar (2002) «Expert Assessment of Uncertainties in Detection and Attribution of Climate Change» in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, or that Prof. Risbey was a faculty member in Granger Morgan's Engineering and Public Policy department at CMU for five years, a place awash in expert elicitation of climate (I sent my abstract to Prof. Morgan — who I know from my AGU uncertainty quantification days — for his opinion before submitting it to the conference
In this case, the committee might have discovered more than a few papers by one of them on the subject, such as Risbey and Kandlikar (2002) «
Expert Assessment of Uncertainties
in Detection and Attribution of Climate Change» in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, or that Prof. Risbey was a faculty member in Granger Morgan's Engineering and Public Policy department at CMU for five years, a place awash in expert elicitation of climate (I sent my abstract to Prof. Morgan — who I know from my AGU uncertainty quantification days — for his opinion before submitting it to the conference
in Detection and
Attribution of Climate Change»
in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, or that Prof. Risbey was a faculty member in Granger Morgan's Engineering and Public Policy department at CMU for five years, a place awash in expert elicitation of climate (I sent my abstract to Prof. Morgan — who I know from my AGU uncertainty quantification days — for his opinion before submitting it to the conference
in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, or that Prof. Risbey was a faculty member
in Granger Morgan's Engineering and Public Policy department at CMU for five years, a place awash in expert elicitation of climate (I sent my abstract to Prof. Morgan — who I know from my AGU uncertainty quantification days — for his opinion before submitting it to the conference
in Granger Morgan's Engineering and Public Policy department at CMU for five years, a place awash
in expert elicitation of climate (I sent my abstract to Prof. Morgan — who I know from my AGU uncertainty quantification days — for his opinion before submitting it to the conference
in expert elicitation of climate (I sent my abstract to Prof. Morgan — who I know from my AGU uncertainty quantification days — for his opinion before submitting it to the conference).
An asterisk
in the column headed «D' indicates that formal detection and
attribution studies were used, along with
expert judgement, to assess the likelihood of a discernible human influence.
there is a highly interesting discussion of how a «very likely» level of confidence as to
attribution was obtained
in AR4
in a McKitrick paper
in 2007: http://rossmckitrick.weebly.com/uploads/4/8/0/8/4808045/mckitrick.final.pdf after having a look on it, you may conclude that IPCC
expert knowledge may be closer to alchemy than to science
My point is that I think there are some glaring logical errors
in the IPCC's detection and
attribution argument, that it doesn't take an
expert in logic to identify.
The IPCC is straightforward
in its introduction to
attribution and doesn't claim anything other than that
attribution needs some kind of modelling (because we can't put the climate
in a bottle) and that this method relies on a number of different tactics, including the consensus of what these tactics mean of the
experts.
Indeed, there are examples
in IPCC reports of willingness to acknowledge the importance of
expert (subjective) judgment, if on a limited basis (e.g., see discussions of climate sensitivity, detection and
attribution and climate and weather extremes
in WGI report, assessment of response strategies
in the WGII report of AR4; see also Knutti and Hegerl (2008) for futher details on the role of
expert judgement
in estimating climate sensitivity).
She further reports that the atmospheric scientists are the
experts on
attribution, and therefore their agreement carries more weight than the self - identified climate scientists
in this study.
Gavin's statement that
attribution — which only deals with phenomena
in the past or present — is necessarily «model based» is exactly the sort of revelatory statement that means that he spent exactly zero time trying the benchmark his
attribution approach against the accumulated wisdom of the
experts.
Dr. Pratt, Your
attribution of motive to those with whom you disagree is annoyingly illogical, especailly for someone who claims to be an
expert in logic.
«The approaches used
in detection and
attribution research described above can not fully account for all uncertainties, and thus ultimately
expert judgment is required to give a calibrated assessment of whether a specific cause is responsible for a given climate change.
Dr Balan Sarojini's co-authors on the new paper were Prof Peter Stott, Head of Climate Monitoring and
Attribution at the Met Office and Professor of Detection and
Attribution at the University of Exeter, and Dr Emily Black, Associate Professor and
expert in water cycle variability at NCAS based at the University of Reading.
In addition to a deep - dive on the impact of U.S. tax reform, we'll also address the OECD's work on financial transactions, key developments in taxation of the digital economy and expert insights and analysis on key transfer pricing issues including BEPS, country - by country reporting, attribution of profits to PE's, APA's, the MLI and mor
In addition to a deep - dive on the impact of U.S. tax reform, we'll also address the OECD's work on financial transactions, key developments
in taxation of the digital economy and expert insights and analysis on key transfer pricing issues including BEPS, country - by country reporting, attribution of profits to PE's, APA's, the MLI and mor
in taxation of the digital economy and
expert insights and analysis on key transfer pricing issues including BEPS, country - by country reporting,
attribution of profits to PE's, APA's, the MLI and more.
I was also impressed by how the study's authors and other
experts quoted
in the mainstream media refused to make any causal
attributions.