Sentences with phrase «extended bull market in stocks»

Both bonds and timing gave me a lot of defense in 2008 but bonds and timing will keep me from capturing the big returns of an extended bull market in stocks.

Not exact matches

As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.

3) The stock market experiences extended periods of secular bull markets and secular bear markets based on the trend in P / E ratios, which is driven by the trend in inflation.

The market's valuation in 2000 was so extreme that the resulting secular bear has the potential to be more extended than others, unless the market was suddenly to collapse to valuations near those where historical secular bulls have started (where stocks have typically been priced to achieve 10 - year prospective returns near 20 % annually).

We are in the seventh year of a strong bull market, and stock valuations have generally become extended as measured by the S&P 500.

After all, the stock market has been in a long bull market that has now extended into its ninth year, stock valuations are widely