Despite what has appeared to be a big early dip in
the extent of sea ice on the Arctic Ocean this spring, a suite of forecasts issued today by the leading teams studying shifting conditions around the North Pole mostly do not (quite) see a repeat of the extraordinary ice pullback in 2007.
The consolidated database shows that there is no precedent as far back as 1850 for the 21st century's minimum ice
extent of sea ice on the pan-Arctic scale....
Not exact matches
The CSU - led research team offers important details
on how the Southern Annular Mode affects storm activity and the
extent of sea ice surrounding the Antarctic Peninsula.
Now, a new study led by Colorado State University provides important details
on the
extent of sea ice, which can protect
ice shelves from the impacts
of ocean storms, in the Antarctic Peninsula.
In addition, the report notes that three
of the warmest years
on record — 2014, 2015 and 2016 — occurred since the last report was released; those years also had record - low
sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in the summer.
According to the findings, the
extent of Arctic
sea ice and its seasonal distribution clearly have broad impacts
on Arctic climate that extend beyond the Arctic Ocean itself and have important implications for the future
of the Arctic system.
Since then, its ten instruments have supplied data
on environmental factors such as air quality, the
extent of Arctic
sea ice and oil spills.
An image
of an area
of the Arctic
sea ice pack well north of Alaska, captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite on Sept. 13, 2013, the day before the National Snow and Ice Data Center estimated Arctic sea ice to have reached its minimum extent for the ye
ice pack well north
of Alaska, captured by the MODIS instrument
on NASA's Aqua satellite
on Sept. 13, 2013, the day before the National Snow and
Ice Data Center estimated Arctic sea ice to have reached its minimum extent for the ye
Ice Data Center estimated Arctic
sea ice to have reached its minimum extent for the ye
ice to have reached its minimum
extent for the year.
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of 2013's Most Extreme Events Arctic
Sea Ice to Reach Sixth Lowest
Extent on Record
This image shows a visualization
of Arctic
sea ice cover
on Sept. 12, 2013, with a yellow line showing the 30 - year average minimum
extent.
The 2007 minimum occurred
on September 18
of that year, when Arctic
sea ice extent stood at 4.15 million square kilometers (1.60 million square miles).
And
on the opposite side
of the planet,
on March 3
sea ice around Antarctica hit its lowest
extent ever recorded by satellites at the end
of summer in the Southern Hemisphere, a surprising turn
of events after decades
of moderate
sea ice expansion.
It's unclear whether this year's strong El Niño event, which is a naturally occurring phenomenon that typically occurs every two to seven years where the surface water
of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean warms, has had any impact
on the Arctic
sea ice minimum
extent.
According to a NASA analysis
of satellite data, the 2015 Arctic
sea ice minimum
extent is the fourth lowest
on record since observations from space began.
Satellites show the
extent of Arctic
sea ice on Sept. 16, 2012 as compared to the average minimum from the past 30 years (yellow line).
Earlier this month —
on 17 March — the
extent of Arctic
sea ice peaked at nearly 15 million square kilometers, covering an area roughly twice the size
of Australia.
The study marks the first time that human influence
on the climate has been demonstrated in the water cycle, and outside the bounds
of typical physical responses such as warming deep ocean and
sea surface temperatures or diminishing
sea ice and snow cover
extent.
A: The National Snow and
Ice Data Center (NSIDC) announced this week that the sea ice surrounding Antarctica reached its maximum extent — its widest halo around the continent — in 2014 on 22 September: more than 20 million square kilometers, which also set a record for the highest extent of sea ice around the continent since satellite measurements began in the late 197
Ice Data Center (NSIDC) announced this week that the
sea ice surrounding Antarctica reached its maximum extent — its widest halo around the continent — in 2014 on 22 September: more than 20 million square kilometers, which also set a record for the highest extent of sea ice around the continent since satellite measurements began in the late 197
ice surrounding Antarctica reached its maximum
extent — its widest halo around the continent — in 2014
on 22 September: more than 20 million square kilometers, which also set a record for the highest
extent of sea ice around the continent since satellite measurements began in the late 197
ice around the continent since satellite measurements began in the late 1970s.
We emphasize that because
of the significant influence
of sea ice on the climate system, it seems that high priority should be given to developing ways for reconstructing high - resolution (in space and time)
sea -
ice extent for past climate - change events.
The
extent of Arctic
sea ice reached the maximum area
of its seasonal cycle
on March 7th coming in at 14.42 million km2.
The forecast scheme for the September
sea ice extent is based
on a methodology similar to one used for the seasonal prediction
of river streamflow.
According to the latest Piomas data, a combination
of the smallest
sea ice extent and the second - thinnest
ice cover
on record puts total volume
of sea ice in November 2016 at a record low for this time
of year.
This was the 10th smallest maximum
sea ice extent on record for the Antarctic and the earliest occurrence
of the maximum
extent in the 1979 - 2016 satellite record.
Since then, anthropogenic influence has also been identified in a range
of other climate variables, such as ocean heat content, atmospheric pressure and
sea ice extent, thereby contributing further evidence
of an anthropogenic influence
on climate, and improving confidence in climate models.
We emphasize that because
of the significant influence
of sea ice on the climate system, it seems that high priority should be given to developing ways for reconstructing high - resolution (in space and time)
sea -
ice extent for past climate - change events.
For other indicators — glacial retreat,
sea level, arctic
ice extent, etc. — the data is equally noisy, and it is difficult having a sensible discussion without the inevitable cherry - picking
on both sides
of the argument.
IPCC / NSIDC trends [based
on SIE
sea ice extent] underestimate the real speed
of ASI loss — true / false / maybe.
eg Graham explained that these warming events are related to the decline
of winter
sea ice in the Arctic, noting that January's
ice extent was the lowest
on record.
If you plot the average Arctic
Sea Ice extent for 20 years, the you should also plot the monthly maximum and minimum values
on the same figure so that we can get some perspective
on where the 2007 and 2008 data falls in the context
of annual variability, or examine for trends.
Again, the focus is
on melting
sea ice and
extent of open Arctic as if that was the paramount concern.
Based solely
on how high the A.O. has been this winter, I would expect higher
sea -
ice extents, or less retreat across most
of the Arctic
seas.
ScienceDaily (Oct. 3, 2008)-- Arctic
sea ice extent during the 2008 melt season dropped to the second - lowest level since satellite measurements began in 1979, reaching the lowest point in its annual cycle of melt and growth on Sept. 14, according to researchers at the University of Colorado at Boulder's National Snow and Ice Data Center.&raq
ice extent during the 2008 melt season dropped to the second - lowest level since satellite measurements began in 1979, reaching the lowest point in its annual cycle
of melt and growth
on Sept. 14, according to researchers at the University
of Colorado at Boulder's National Snow and
Ice Data Center.&raq
Ice Data Center.»
-- Antarctic
sea ice extent reached record high for second year in a row; South Pole station set record high temperature: The Antarctic maximum
sea ice extent reached a record high
of 7.56 million square miles
on October 1.
And variations in the thickness and
extent of sea ice cloaking the Arctic Ocean are driven by yet another set
of complicating factors, ranging from long - term shifts in atmospheric pressure patterns to events as close - focus as the potent Arctic superstorm I reported
on earlier this month.
``... Figure 2 indicates that
on a daily basis,
sea ice extent appears slightly higher than 2007 for most
of the month.
The National Snow and
Ice Data Center released its summary of summer sea - ice conditions in the Arctic on Tuesday, noting a substantial expansion of the extent of «second - year ice» — floes thick enough to have persisted through two summers of melti
Ice Data Center released its summary
of summer
sea -
ice conditions in the Arctic on Tuesday, noting a substantial expansion of the extent of «second - year ice» — floes thick enough to have persisted through two summers of melti
ice conditions in the Arctic
on Tuesday, noting a substantial expansion
of the
extent of «second - year
ice» — floes thick enough to have persisted through two summers of melti
ice» — floes thick enough to have persisted through two summers
of melting.
Canadian
Ice Service, 4.7, Multiple Methods As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter arctic ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Ice Service, 4.7, Multiple Methods As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination
of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based
on observed end -
of - winter arctic
ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
ice thicknesses and
extents, as well as an examination
of Surface Air Temperature (SAT),
Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic
Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and
sea ice predicto
sea ice predicto
ice predictors.
A threshold h applied
on the (thickness Feb = Mar concentration Sept) field yields the predicted September
extent after the regression with the past four years
of sea ice extent observations.
Since its inception 8 years ago, the NCAR / CU
sea ice pool has easily rivaled much more sophisticated efforts based
on statistical methods and physical models to predict the September monthly mean Arctic
sea ice extent (e.g. see appendix
of Stroeve et al. 2014 in GRL doi: 10.1002 / 2014GL059388; Witness the Arctic article by Hamilton et al. 2014 http://www.arcus.org/witness-the-arctic/2014/2/article/21066).
Canadian
Ice Service, 4.7 (+ / - 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Ice Service, 4.7 (+ / - 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination
of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based
on observed end -
of - winter Arctic
ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
ice thickness
extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature,
Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September
sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and
sea ice predicto
sea ice predicto
ice predictors.
Polar bears have optimal habitat requirements with respect to food supply (seals) and this food supply hinges critically
on the seasonal
extent of sea ice.
Sea ice extent was below average in the Barents
Sea on the Atlantic side
of the Arctic.
I think the other point is that summer
sea ice extent is important because
of its effect
on albedo.
There has been a lot
of discussion over the past few years
on the use
of sea ice volume as a better index than
sea ice extent for use in Outlooks.
This month's report includes details
on the causes
of the 2012 minimum, the use
of sea ice volume versus
extent,
sea ice in climate models, and late spring 2013 conditions.
bozzza @ 424, For one theory see: http://forum.arctic-
sea-
ice.net/index.php/topic,724.msg60178.html#msg60178 I believe that the current downward fluctuation in Antarctic
Sea Ice Extent if likely associated with the influence
of our currently strong El Nino
on the average location
of the Amundsen Bellingshausen
Sea Low.
For example, the events
of summer 2012 suggest that spring
sea ice extent is probably not the best variable
on which to base summer Outlooks.
Center officials say the
sea ice probably reached its maximum extent on March 7th, when it covered about 5 - and - a-half-million square miles of the Arctic Ocean, including portions of the Bering Sea that lie south of the Arctic Circ
sea ice probably reached its maximum
extent on March 7th, when it covered about 5 - and - a-half-million square miles
of the Arctic Ocean, including portions
of the Bering
Sea that lie south of the Arctic Circ
Sea that lie south
of the Arctic Circle.
Sea ice extent fell to 4.10 million square kilometers (1.58 million square miles)
on August 26, breaking the lowest
extent on record set
on September 18, 2007,
of 4.17 million square kilometers (1.61 million square miles).
They used all the scientific papers they could find that investigated both polar bears and
sea ice, which added up to 92, and scored their positions
on sea ice extent and whether it is decreasing significantly and the threat
of extinction versus adaptability
of polar bears.