That could start to change with the publication this week of the first list of
extinction risks for the world's plants.
The researchers also used their model to
predict extinction risk, a measure that's important for conservation planning but hard to observe.
The researchers also included other factors that might
affect extinction risk, such as the size of the island and distance from the mainland.
Its status in the wild has long been recognized as grim, but
extinction risk now is believed higher than ever.
I
use extinction risk to mean that the process of extinction is occurring and will reach its unfortunate end state unless conservation actions are put into place or global warming is reversed.
The authors used modeling approaches to predict how removing invasive mammals on different islands could reduce
extinction risk for threatened species.
Further, the findings of the new study confirm the unique nature of Arabian Sea humpback whales, which recently was listed as «Endangered» under the US Endangered Species Act by evaluating
extinction risk of this discrete population.
«This is especially worrying, and highly germane to Australia's coral reefs, because complementary studies have shown high levels of
extinction risk in tropical biotas, where localized human impacts as well as climate change have resulted in substantial degradation.»
Current predictions of
extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study.
The new study, funded by NASA and led by Dr. Richard Pearson of UCL Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research and formerly of the American Museum of Natural History, and by Dr. Resit Akçakaya of Stony Brook University in New York, identified factors that predispose species to
high extinction risk due to climate change.
Next - generation models for
estimating extinction risks should incorporate these factors in order to increase biological realism and therefore the accuracy of future predictions.»
Photo captions: Ornate Box Turtle and Massasauga are among the species in a study that focused on the predictability of
species extinction risks due to climate change.
Judging the effects of climate change on extinction may be easier than previously thought, according to a paper entitled, «Life history and spatial traits predict
extinction risk due to climate change,» published today in the journal Nature Climate Change.
Unfortunately for birds and many other organisms, it's crowded at the top: Shifting habitats higher up may increase
extinction risks as competition between species increases and viable environments get narrower and eventually run out, said Forero - Medina.
Population growth, bushmeat hunting and trapping, and resource extraction in response to consumer demand may fuel
future extinction risks in such areas, said Betts.
The simulations included only female finches, so the researchers say they may have underestimated
extinction risk by ignoring factors such as a female's ability to find a mate when populations are small.
However, if the climate is changing both from top to bottom and right to left, as might be the case for multiple climate variables, then the range gets smaller faster and
extinction risk accelerates.
My hope is that in five years, scientists will be using more sophisticated models that can help us to refine
overall extinction risk estimates and pinpoint which particular species are most at risk.»
A new global analysis of forest habitat loss and wildlife
extinction risk published July 19 in the journal Nature shows that species most at risk live in areas just beginning to see the impacts of human activities such as hunting, mining, logging and ranching.
A — Mark: «These percentages represent the average expected
extinction risk based on a given value of global warming.
«It allows for predictions
about extinction risk, and also gives us a systematic way of assessing how far populations are from their most stable states.»
«Still, migratory mammals have an overall high
extinction risk because they face so many barriers — roads and development, hunting and poaching — so more work still needs to be done.»
I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change —
induced extinction risks.
As such, they were able to use fossil records to assess the
baseline extinction risk for marine animals, including sharks, whales and dolphins, as well as small sedentary organisms such as snails, clams and corals.
«We used these estimates to map
natural extinction risk in modern oceans, and compare it with recent human pressures on the ocean such as fishing, and climate change to identify the areas most at risk,» says Professor Pandolfi.
By comparing extinction events with the entire record of mammal turnover over the past 65 million years, the researchers demonstrated that body size and diet did not
influence extinction risk for mammals for most of their evolutionary history.
The 50 -
year extinction risk in populations consisting of 25 individuals was 1.65 times greater when CDV was present than that of control populations.
High
extinction risk drives the evolution of diverse reproduction strategies in jellyfish polyps in a theoretical model
In the Summary for Policy Makers of the report on climate impacts, there are different summations of
extinction risk within a few pages.
Direct extinction risk caused by climate change for all of Earth's species, for different scenarios of atmospheric warming.
You write that studies that show a higher
extinction risk tend to include more complexities, like «realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity».
Graph shows that adding the interaction of slowly and quickly migrating species in response to climate change, increases the overall time lag (of population average) compared to the geographically shifting temperature gradient — and therefore the overall
extinction risk associated with this warming.
For instance, evolution can
decrease extinction risks by allowing populations to adapt to changing climates, whereas anthropogenic landscape barriers can increase risks by limiting dispersal into newly suitable habitats.
They publish under the title Quantification of habitat fragmentation
reveals extinction risk in terrestrial mammals, unfortunately not as Open Access.
By looking at pre-existing information on species of salamanders, turtles, tortoises, snakes and lizards, the team hoped to create a blueprint for
judging extinction risk in other species around the world.