Using carbon dioxide emissions data from 2006 and 1750 - for an estimate of preindustrial levels - Jacobson found that
each extra degree of warming accounted for roughly 1,000 out of every 50,000 - 100,000 air pollution - related deaths.
This lead author famously stated that the various
extra degrees of warming bandied about for the coming century are «not predictions, but projections».
Not exact matches
The research shows that a one
degree rise in tropical temperature leads to around two billion
extra tonnes
of carbon being released per year into the atmosphere from tropical ecosystems, compared with the same tropical
warming in the 1960s and 1970s.
As I understand it (from the IPCC report and from Ramanathan en Feng, Sept 23 2008 in PNAS) stopping all emissions suddenly would cause about 1.6
degree Celsius
of extra warming, because short - lived pollution would quickly be removed from the atmosphere.
If SSTs were even an
extra tenth (or even hundredth)
of a
degree warmer, it would increase the energy
of the storm enough to increase the number
of people killed and the damage done to property by the storm.
One could, for example, rerun the forecast models that computed Katrina's development with half a
degree cooler SST, say, as a rough - and - imperfect estimate
of the potential impact
of this
extra warming.
You might expect to see heat waves on the list — even though climate and weather are two different (but related) phenomena — but the report is a good reminder
of the tremendous scope
of problems a
warming globe can cause; it's not just about an
extra couple
degrees and wearing fewer sweaters: «With
warming temperatures, the breeding cycle
of malaria - carrying mosquitoes is shortening, which means more mosquitoes — and malaria — each year.»
Even if climate sensitivity is somewhat less than the IPCC's median value
of about 3
degrees Celsius, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are increasing exponentially, so a smaller value merely buys an
extra decade or two until the same amount
of warming is reached.
But the average person is just going to see years
of cold weather, not «a cooler climate that is x
degrees warmer than it would have been without all the
extra CO2.»
Not only that but it seems clear the technology required to achieve the global target
of keeping global
warming to an
extra 2
degrees, is numerous and diverse.
I won't share my response, but I asked him if he would prefer that my generation, instead
of handing his generation a
degree or so
of warming, instead handed his generation an
extra billion or so people in poverty.
For every
extra degree (Cº)
of warming, the atmosphere holds about 7 % more water vapour.
Global
warming is measured in 10ths
of a
degree, so any
extra heating nudge is important.»
The theory
of AGW says that
extra CO2 causes a minor
warming (less than 0.5
degree) which then causes the atmosphere to absorb more water vapour.
If 300 watts
of ghg back radiation
warms the earths surface by 30
degrees K above thermodynamic equilibrium, 300 + 1.5 watts / m2
of extra co2 induced
warming will proportionately
warm it by too small an amount to measure.
As I understand it (from the IPCC report and from Ramanathan en Feng, Sept 23 2008 in PNAS) stopping all emissions suddenly would cause about 1.6
degree Celsius
of extra warming, because short - lived pollution would quickly be removed from the atmosphere.
Yet, I'm being told constantly that this colder atmosphere radiates energy which adds to the heat
of the Earth and only needs a tiny tiny
extra bit more
of CO2 and the whole Earth's temperature will go up several
degrees and this will lead to runaway global
warming, because in this is a net exchange
of energy which includes from the colder to the hotter.
For every
degree of warming, we add an
extra Ace into the deck.
Understanding the risk
of half a
degree of extra warming brings other scientific challenges, including the need to narrow the uncertainty over how much
warming a given amount
of carbon produces, known as the climate sensitivity, and the role
of short - lived gases, such as methane.