The increase is broadly consistent with
the extra water vapour that warmer air can hold.
The extra water vapour in the atmosphere would likely lead to more snowfall in the upper latitudes, also raising the albedo.
So if this much
extra water vapour and CO2 raises the average temperature 3 degrees you have to double it to get another 3 degrees and double it again to get another 3 degrees.
Basically, Dr Ferenc Miskolczi's life as a NASA climate research scientist was made hell because he discovered that
the extra water vapour being evaporated is not having a positive - feedback (increasing the CO2 warming effect by absorbing more infrared from the sun), instead it is going into increased cloud cover, which reflects incoming sunlight back to space.
Assume we are heating the planet by adding carbon dioxide; it's made worse by
the extra water vapour chucked into the atmosphere by the excess heat.
In the past no tipping point has ever been known to have occurred as a result of runaway warming from
extra water vapour so how have we been persuaded to fear it so much?
Not exact matches
Extra carbon dioxide means a warmer world — and then positive feedback effects from things like
water vapour and ice loss will make it warmer still
In the paper you cited, it showed how the
water vapour was giving the
extra boost to the temperature, but they could not explain it because their models were using the logarithmic relationship rather than the linear one.
Here's how: because
water vapour is itself a greenhouse gas, the
extra moisture traps more energy (D).
For every
extra degree (Cº) of warming, the atmosphere holds about 7 % more
water vapour.
The theory of AGW says that
extra CO2 causes a minor warming (less than 0.5 degree) which then causes the atmosphere to absorb more
water vapour.
Sensitivity is low because more
water vapour leads to more clouds which more than makes up for the alleged
extra GHE.
The air without
water in
vapour form must therefore become more dense and must still fall unless the
extra sensible heat warms it to such an extent that it becomes as light as the air containing
water vapour previously was.
Another question seems to be whether the
extra energy required by the evaporative phase change from
water to
vapour comes from the downwelling IR itself, from the air or from the
water.
However the effect of downwelling infrared is always to use up all the infrared in increasing the temperature of the ocean surface molecules whilst leaving nothing in reserve to provide the
extra energy required (the latent heat of evaporation) when the change of state occurs from
water to
vapour.
The remaining bit missing from your above calculations (assuming you've corrected all the other errors now:) is the
extra energy required by the change of state from
water to
vapour.
The lack of attention to
water -
vapour and cloudiness led to criticisms of crudeness, and again the matter of the ocean absorbing the
extra gas was raised in objection to Plass» suggestion that the
extra carbon dioxide would remain in the atmosphere for a thousand years.