I'm going to look at returns in three different
market conditions — a neutral
market (June 2015 until June 2016), an
extreme bear market (May 2008 to January 2009),
and a pretty vigorous
bull market (March 2009 to December 2009).
Of particular relevance, what constitutes dangerous optimism in a
bear market will often not be a problem in a
bull market and what constitutes
extreme fear / pessimism in a
bull market will often not signal a good buying opportunity in a
bear market.