Not exact matches
While the
changes in both the mean and higher order statistical moments (e.g., variance) of time - series of climate variables affect the frequency of relatively simple
extremes (e.g.,
extreme high daily or monthly
temperatures, damaging winds),
changes in the frequency of more complex
extremes are based on
changes in the occurrence of complex
atmospheric phenomena (e.g., hurricanes, tornadoes, ice storms).
For example, let's say that evidence convinced me (
in a way that I wasn't convinced previously) that all recent
changes in land surface
temperatures and sea surface
temperatures and
atmospheric temperatures and deep sea
temperatures and sea ice extent and sea ice volume and sea ice density and moisture content
in the air and cloud coverage and rainfall and measures of
extreme weather were all directly tied to internal natural variability, and that I can now see that as the result of a statistical modeling of the trends as associated with natural phenomena.
«We're seeing increasing
temperatures and relatively little
change in average precipitation, but an increase
in the variability and the occurrence of both wet and dry
extremes,» said Daniel Swain, an
atmospheric scientist at Stanford's School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences and the lead author of a new paper published
in Science Advances.
Lamont's Ryan Abernathey and Richard Seager are studying how
changes in the ocean cause sea surface
temperature to vary, and how these anomalies drive
changes in atmospheric circulation to create
extreme weather events.
This Section places particular emphasis on current knowledge of past
changes in key climate variables:
temperature, precipitation and
atmospheric moisture, snow cover, extent of land and sea ice, sea level, patterns
in atmospheric and oceanic circulation,
extreme weather and climate events, and overall features of the climate variability.
This report discusses our current understanding of the mechanisms that link declines
in Arctic sea ice cover, loss of high - latitude snow cover,
changes in Arctic - region energy fluxes,
atmospheric circulation patterns, and the occurrence of
extreme weather events; possible implications of more severe loss of summer Arctic sea ice upon weather patterns at lower latitudes; major gaps
in our understanding, and observational and / or modeling efforts that are needed to fill those gaps; and current opportunities and limitations for using Arctic sea ice predictions to assess the risk of
temperature / precipitation anomalies and
extreme weather events over northern continents.
These include increased average land and ocean
temperatures that lead to reduced snowpack levels, hydrological
changes, and sea level rise;
changing precipitation patterns that will create both drought and
extreme rain events; and increasing
atmospheric CO2 that will contribute to ocean acidification,
changes in species composition, and increased risk of fires.
In general, the pattern of change in return values for 20 - year extreme temperature events from an equilibrium simulation for doubled CO2 with a global atmospheric model coupled to a non-dynamic slab ocean shows moderate increases over oceans and larger increases over land masses (Zwiers and Kharin, 1998; Figure 9.29
In general, the pattern of
change in return values for 20 - year extreme temperature events from an equilibrium simulation for doubled CO2 with a global atmospheric model coupled to a non-dynamic slab ocean shows moderate increases over oceans and larger increases over land masses (Zwiers and Kharin, 1998; Figure 9.29
in return values for 20 - year
extreme temperature events from an equilibrium simulation for doubled CO2 with a global
atmospheric model coupled to a non-dynamic slab ocean shows moderate increases over oceans and larger increases over land masses (Zwiers and Kharin, 1998; Figure 9.29).
Full text here: Contribution of
changes in atmospheric circulation patterns to
extreme temperature trends.