Sentences with phrase «extreme events in»

Key challenges, therefore, will be to increasingly: 1) interrogate extreme events in climate simulations; 2) use earth system models to disentangle the complex and multiple controls on proxies; 3) adopt multi-proxy approaches to constrain complex phenomena; and 4) increase the spatial coverage of such records, especially in arid regions, which are currently under - represented.

We also find that observed fluctuations in extreme events in Padova are linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation: increases in the NAO Index are on average associated with an intensification of daily extreme rainfall events.

However, from your probability illustration, I do see your point, and were there to be many extreme events each year to work with, and twice as many extreme events in present years than in the past, that would carry weight.

I instead like to focus on mitigation strategies now that would hopefully reduce the probability of extreme events in the future.

This lack of consensus on the definition of extreme events, coupled with other problems, such as a lack of suitable homogeneous data for many parts of the world, likely means that it will be difficult, if not impossible, to say that extreme events in general have changed in the observed record (emphasis added).»

and «The unexpected cold, snowy northern hemisphere winter (2010/2011) and the flooding (2011) in drought stricken Queensland highlights how our expectations of extreme events in a warmer world can be soundly trumped by natural variability of weather processes».

«This analysis proves that the modelling approach behind one of the main pillars of real - time event attribution undertaken is sound and applicable to a range of extreme events in regions where we have confidence in the model performance», said Karsten Haustein, lead author of the new paper.

If James Marusek's work on extreme events in the last 2000 events was used as a reference base, it's likely that no black swan would be identified in the current period.

Although the global models have improved over time (Chapter 8), they still have limitations that affect the simulation of extreme events in terms of spatial resolution, simulation errors, and parametrizations that must represent processes that can not yet be included explicitly in the models, particularly dealing with clouds and precipitation (Meehl et al., 2000d).

These extreme events in turn have dramatically impacted crop production in key food basket regions.

Ignore the global warming spin and any suggestion that we can expect extreme events in the future.

For example, the National Academies recently published a study on the attribution of extreme events in the context of climate change, noting that «advances have come about for two main reasons: one, the understanding of the climate and weather mechanisms that produce extreme events is improving, and two, rapid progress is being made in the methods that are used for event attribution.

Wajsowicz, R.C., 2005a: Forecasting extreme events in the tropical Indian Ocean sector climate.

Her current research includes understanding large - scale temperature extreme events in Alaska and Canada, relating ice core data at the McCall Glacier in Alaska to the large - scale synoptic climatology, and understanding linkages between observed changes in the Arctic and weather in the mid-latitudes.

However, reduction of extreme events in several regions is projected during summer.

Extreme weather attribution is however an emerging and rapidly advancing science, and there is increasing capacity to estimate the change in magnitude and occurrence of specific types of extreme events in a warming world.

The report pays particular attention to extreme events in the U.S., where the science of event attribution has evolved significantly, especially in the aftermath of recent extreme events, for example, the recent California drought.

Last week, in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences we published a method for analysing record - breaking extreme events in climate time series, with applications to the global annual - mean temperature and to July temperatures in Moscow.

Over the past several months, extreme events in the form of heat waves, droughts, fires, and flooding have seemed to become the norm rather than the exception.

Extreme events, even 30 - year events, challenge weak links, and more extreme events in a future climate challenge these more.

Precipitation analysis further suggests that greater than 50 % of the precipitation may be associated with extreme events in the future.

Rahmstorf, S., and D. Coumou, 2011: Increase of extreme events in a warming world.

«We're seeing more extreme events in our area,» he said.

Because most AOGCMs have coarse resolution and large - scale systematic errors, and extreme events tend to be short lived and have smaller spatial scales, it is somewhat surprising how well the models simulate the statistics of extreme events in the current climate, including the trends during the 20th century (see Chapter 9 for more detail).

Arguments about how to discuss such extreme events in the context of climate policy — while important — are down the list, as well, even with a presidential election days away.

There is a broad spectrum of views on extreme events in the community — you've sampled some of those.

Another veteran climatologist, John Michael Wallace of the University of Washington, sees a similar message in extreme events in relation to the background push from greenhouse gases, but says efforts to demonstrate that today's heat waves are driven substantially by greenhouse heating can be a damaging distraction.

How gentlemanly is it that on his blog he falsely accused us of cherry - picking the last 100 years of data rather than using the full available 130 years in our PNAS paper Increase of extreme events in a warming world, even though we clearly say in the paper that our conclusion is based on the full data series?

«The ability to understand and explain extreme events in the context of climate change has developed very rapidly over the past decade.

We advocate including extreme events in the global planetary health indicators because extreme events have a particularly large impact on human and natural ecosystems — and that's what, ultimately, people care about most.

There is no discussion of extreme events in the Compo et al paper at all.

Because of the limited length of our letter we were not able to present a comprehensive discussion of the scientific literature that is being cited in support of these linkages so we focused on just one of them: the paper by Francis and Vavrus, «Evidence Linking Arctic Amplification to Extreme Weather in Mid-Latitudes,» in which it is argued that Arctic warming is linked to a range of extreme events in midlatitudes, including the kind of persistent cold that we have been experiencing this winter.

It is usually triggered by extreme events in a person who is susceptible to it... such as undue stress, cold weather or a virus.

Thorne had, since the 1960s, been evaluating how extreme events in the universe, such as colliding black holes and neutron stars, would generate gravitational radiation.

You will therefore work with diverse research teams including space physicists exploiting ground - based instruments and space missions to study the ionospheres and magnetospheres of Earth and the other planets, and statisticians developing statistical methodology to understand the behaviour of extreme events in real - life environmental applications.

These eight papers looking at extreme events in 2014 show just how much global warming has become a part of todays climate.

«We believe this first study of rogue waves occurring over space and time during hurricanes will help improve real - time forecasting for shipping companies and other organizations that need to understand the risk of extreme events in the oceans.»

New research shows that the most extreme events in financial data dynamics - reflected in very large price moves - are incompatible with multi-fractal scaling.

Mostly safety is defined by measuring and comparing extreme events in birth.

An adequately - large ensemble of model runs would provide a distribution of possible severities of an extreme event in control runs and those forced with prescribed carbon emissions.

An adequately - large ensemble of model runs would provide a distribution of possible severities of an extreme event in control runs and those forced with prescribed carbon emissions.

[Response: Your argument misses the point in three different and important ways, not even considering whether or not the Black Hills data have any general applicability elsewhere, which they may or may not: (1) It ignores the point made in the post about the potential effect of previous, seasonal warming on the magnitude of an extreme event in mid summer to early fall, due to things like (especially) a depletion in soil moisture and consequent accumulation of degree days, (2) it ignores that biological sensitivity is far FAR greater during the warm season than the cold season for a whole number of crucial variables ranging from respiration and photosynthesis to transpiration rates, and (3) it ignores the potential for derivative effects, particularly fire and smoke, in radically increasing the local temperature effects of the heat wave.

Extreme value theory (EVT) appears to require discarding all but the most extreme event in a time interval, say a year.

The other aspect of the trend is that a 100 - year extreme event in the 20th century can become a ten - year event now because of trends (which is true of mean summer temperature in most places, for example).

Not exact matches

One degree may not sound like much, but Stefan Rahmstorf, a climate scientist at the Potsdam Institute in Germany, says, «Every tenth of a degree increases the number of unprecedented extreme weather events considerably.»

This is the third and most extreme mass bleaching event in 18 years to strike the Great Barrier Reef, and in each case, the areas that suffered the worst bleaching were the areas where the water was hottest for the longest period of time, Hughes said.

Barring an extreme turn of events, the decision likely spells death for a health care M&A dance in which the partners have grown increasingly out of step.

Similarly, the Northeast is expected to experience more extreme weather events, like hot summers and, in the short run, super cold winters.

We know that storms will continue to come — extreme weather events are increasing in frequency all over the world.

Minneapolis is definitely the place to be in 2018, as the city will host Super Bowl LII in February, as well as the Summer X Games (an extreme sports event) in July.