Sentences with phrase «extreme modeling scenarios»

Not exact matches

The researchers then looked at four key extreme Australian events — the Angry Summer 2012/13; the Coral Sea marine heatwave of 2016; the severe rain event in Queensland in 2010; and the 2006 drought in southeast Australia — to model how often similar events could occur under each scenario.

They modelled three climate change scenarios in the region, ranging from conservative to extreme.

While the models do not reliably track individual extreme weather events, they do reproduce the jet stream patterns and temperature scenarios that in the real world lead to torrential rain for days, weeks of broiling sun and absence of precipitation.

(Because weather depends on so many factors, the group had to model an extreme scenario to confirm the changes they observed were actually due to solar panels.)

We must be very attentive to observations that warn us that extreme loss scenarios are more probable than our models predict.

Frightening thought — if and only if the AGW centric prediction of future climate is either not completely correct, or out right wrong, consider extreme scenarios which would result in a drastically (and painfully) different outcome than the prophecied sea level rise / climatic tropical expansion / northerly movement of species model.

Bickmore's own graph showing the temperature anomaly results had actually landed outside the ball park before dribbling back in demonstrates that the bulk of the IPCC scenarios are in the upper extreme and the modelling used should be reconsidered.

Considering the carbon - cycle feedback, some models (e.g. Cox et al.) estimate large positive vegetation feedback (increased soil respiration, lower photosynthesis due to increased vegetation stress, increased fire frequency...) and some of the most extreme scenarios predict the CO2 concentration to be up to 980 ppm.

2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 5).2 Regional climate models (RCMs) using the same emissions scenario also project increased spring precipitation (9 % in 2041 - 2062 relative to 1979 - 2000) and decreased summer precipitation (by an average of about 8 % in 2041 - 2062 relative to 1979 - 2000) particularly in the southern portions of the Midwest.12 Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation are projected across the entire region in both GCM and RCM simulations (Figure 18.6), and these increases are generally larger than the projected changes in average precipitation.12, 2

The value of the emission models would be in establishing the «barely feasible» worst case scenario and the conditions under which this scenario might be created, and in rejecting more extreme scenarios.

Ensemble modelling of storm surges and tidal levels in shelf seas, particularly for the Baltic and southern North Sea, indicate fewer but more extreme surge events under some SRES emissions scenarios (Hulme et al., 2002; Meier et al., 2004; Lowe and Gregory, 2005).

Using an ensemble of four high resolution (~ 25 km) regional climate models, this study analyses the future (2021 - 2050) spatial distribution of seasonal temperature and precipitation extremes in the Ganges river basin based on the SRES A1B emissions scenario.

Accompanying such calls is a discernible shift in the content of science itself, from more extreme to more «realistic» modeled scenarios of deployment, and from consideration of global to regional effects.

Using all 19 models, the average state in the last decade of the twenty - first century is projected under the SRES A1B forcing scenario to be conditions currently considered severe drought (PDSI < — 3) over much of the continental United States and extreme drought (PDSI < — 4) over much of Mexico.

Another study examined the potential flood damage impacts of changes in extreme precipitation events using the Canadian Climate Centre model and the IS92a emissions scenario for the metropolitan Boston area in the north - eastern USA (Kirshen et al., 2005b).

One model at the very extreme had a worst - case - scenario warming of 11 degrees Celsius — which is nearly 20 degrees Fahrenheit.

«The failure to imagine future extreme events and climate scenarios, other than those that are driven by CO2 emissions and simulated by deficient climate models, has the potential to increase our vulnerability to future climate surprises»

The failure to imagine future extreme events and climate scenarios, other than those that are driven by CO2 emissions and simulated by deficient climate models, has the potential to increase our vulnerability to future climate surprises (see my recent presentation on this Generating possibility distributions of scenarios for regional climate change).

The weather model showed that extreme summertime surface temperatures developed when carbon dioxide emissions were assumed to continue to increase about two percent a year, the «business as usual» scenario.

In order to see the effects of extreme heat events on the United States, the researchers developed models to simulate scenarios analogous to that of Europe's for heat - sensitive urban areas.

Accomplishing this will require synthesizing multiple lines of scientific evidence, including simple and complex models, physical arguments, and paleoclimate data, as well as new modeling experiments to better explore the possibility of extreme scenarios.

The main outcomes of the ACCLIM project included; (i) return periods of extreme weather events based on observations at twelve weather stations, (ii) climate scenarios and probabilistic estimates of changes in climate over Finland based on an analysis of global and regional climate model simulations, (iii) guidance in the use of climate information in climate change impacts and adaptation research.

Future change of precipitation extremes in Europe: Intercomparison of scenarios from regional climate models.

Since climate models do a bad job of identifying these scenarios, we need to look at the historical and paleo record of extreme events, and also use the scenario falsification approach in line with possibility theory.

In their study, Dim Coumou, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, and Alexander Robinson, from Universidad Complutense de Madrid, used state - of - the - art climate models to project changes in the trend of heat extremes under two future warming scenarios — RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 — throughout the 21st century.

The extreme warming scenarios are driven by a CO2 feedback term in the climate models.

The blanket - exemption treatment is based on increasingly questionable assertions that wind turbines reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide levels that supposedly cause global warming, climate change, extreme weather events and an amazing number of dog, people, Italian pasta, prostitution and other exaggerated or imaginary problems, plus others that exist only in computer models whose forecasts and scenarios bear no resemblance to Real World conditions or events.

Tamino told me that the models show accelerating warming, so even the low amount of warming since 1998 doesn't invalidate any extreme scenarios.

The study uses an extensive suite of existing simulations with the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model driven by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) climate simulations to train and evaluate the nonlinear and nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value conditional density network (GEVcdn) model of Fraser River streamflow extremes, and subsequently applies the model to project changes in Fraser River extremes under CMIP5 based climate change scenamodel driven by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) climate simulations to train and evaluate the nonlinear and nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value conditional density network (GEVcdn) model of Fraser River streamflow extremes, and subsequently applies the model to project changes in Fraser River extremes under CMIP5 based climate change scenaModel Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) climate simulations to train and evaluate the nonlinear and nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value conditional density network (GEVcdn) model of Fraser River streamflow extremes, and subsequently applies the model to project changes in Fraser River extremes under CMIP5 based climate change scenamodel of Fraser River streamflow extremes, and subsequently applies the model to project changes in Fraser River extremes under CMIP5 based climate change scenamodel to project changes in Fraser River extremes under CMIP5 based climate change scenarios.

«What we have done here is a very extreme scenario, we've put lots of CO2 into our model and we've geoengineered to counteract that.

Only two models simulated an AMOC collapse, and only at the tail end of the most extreme scenario (RCP8.5, which quite frankly gives me a stomachache).