Their projections also show a resulting increase of about 28 % in
extreme precipitation days.
Not exact matches
Extreme rainfall events are trending upward, and nine of the top 10 years for
extreme one -
day precipitation events have happened since 1990.
To identify
extreme weather events, the researchers relied on county and calendar
day specific thresholds for
precipitation and maximum temperature (90th and 95th percentile, respectively) that were calculated based on 30 years of baseline data (1960 - 1989).
While the models do not reliably track individual
extreme weather events, they do reproduce the jet stream patterns and temperature scenarios that in the real world lead to torrential rain for
days, weeks of broiling sun and absence of
precipitation.
Nationally, the components that measure
extremes in warm maximum and minimum temperature and one -
day precipitation totals were much above average.
«We show that at the present -
day warming of 0.85 °C about 18 % of the moderate daily
precipitation extremes over land are attributable to the observed temperature increase since pre-industrial times, which in turn primarily results from human influence,» the research team said.
In other words, there is a tendency for rarer 1 -
day annual
extreme precipitation amounts to occur later in the temporal record.
I am interpreting that to mean that there is a trend towards increasing annual 1 -
day extreme precipitation — but I am not sure how to quantify that change.
I understand this to mean that over time, there is a tendency to move upwards (to the right) along the cumulative probability curve, let's say, for annual
extreme 1 -
day precipitation.
Mean temperature, mean monthly
precipitation, frequency of hot / cold
days / nights, and indices of
extreme precipitation are all estimated for each country based on observed and modeled data.
Averaging smoothes out
day - to -
day and year - to - year natural weather variability and
extremes, removing much of the chaotic behavior, revealing any underlying long term trends in climate, such as a long term increase or decrease in temperature, or long term shifts in
precipitation patterns.
Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin https://books.google.com/books?isbn=3319160060 The BACC II Author Team averaged frequency of
extreme 1 -
day precipitation totals above 15 mm and a... 4.6 Cloudiness and Solar Radiation 4.6.1 Cloudiness Records of cloudiness and solar... There is a trend of decreasing cloud cover over the Baltic Sea basin......
As the number of
days with
extreme precipitation increases, the risk for intense and damaging floods is also expected to increase throughout much of the country.
Northeast states can expect more climate change related heat waves — with significantly more
days above 90 degrees F — and flooding from sea level rise and
extreme precipitation events.
In this study, evidence for a nonlinear association between ENSO and
precipitation extremes is reassessed by fitting stationary and linear / nonlinear GEV regression models, with the Niño3.4 index as a covariate, to 1 -, 5 -, and 10 -
day extended winter
precipitation maxima.
However, no anthropogenic influence can be detected for 1 -
day and 3 -
day surface runoff, as increases in
extreme precipitation in the present -
day climate are offset by decreased snow cover and lower frozen water content in soils during the May — June transition months, compared to pre-industrial climate.
Around the North Sea, half the stations registered floods that came eight
days later than in 1960, perhaps because of
extreme precipitation during the winter.
In general, the majority of all
precipitation occurs as isolated 1 -
day events, while most
extreme precipitation occurs over a period of several hours embedded within 2 - 5
day events.
The figure shows the spatial distribution of stations and the seasonal cycles, with results for all
precipitation days included for comparison with
extremes.
Predictions of
precipitation extremes have improved since then, on all timescales extending from a few
days out to seasons.
For example, a recent study on the severe flooding in England in the winter of 2013/14 found that as well as increasing the amount of moisture the atmosphere can hold, human - caused warming had slightly increased the number of January
days with the type of wind patterns that favour
extreme precipitation.
Eight of the top 10 years for
extreme one -
day precipitation events have occurred since 1990.
Many impacts of climate change will be realised as the result of a change in the frequency of occurrence of
extreme weather events such as windstorms, tornados, hail, heatwaves, gales, heavy
precipitation or
extreme temperatures over a few hours to several
days.