As the number of days with
extreme precipitation increases, the risk for intense and damaging floods is also expected to increase throughout much of the country.
The results obtained by Donat and his team suggest that both annual precipitation and
extreme precipitation increased by 1 — 2 % per decade in dry regions, with wet areas showing similar increases in the extent of extreme precipitation and smaller increases for annual totals.
Not exact matches
«We do see signs of
precipitation extremes increasing in these regions.»
Climatic variability like
precipitation changes or
increase in
extreme events such as storms and tropical cyclones is known to significantly modify the Earth's surface.
It also has seen a 71 percent
increase in the frequency of
extreme precipitation events — more than any other region in the United States, according to the paper.
For instance, though about 30 percent of farmers surveyed agreed that
extreme weather events will become more frequent in the future, 52 percent agreed that farmers should take additional steps to protect their land from
increased precipitation.
«Of course, weather is naturally chaotic, and
extremes are a normal part of our highly variable UK climate, but globally there has recently been an
increase in the incidence of high temperature and heavy
precipitation extremes.
«If we look at
precipitation events over the long term, there is an
increase in frequency of
extremes.
Our study shows is that
increases in the number of
extreme heat and
extreme precipitation events, particularly during summer months, lead to more asthma hospitalizations in Maryland.»
Similarly,
extreme precipitation events during summer months
increased the risk of asthma hospitalizations by 11 %.
Still, he says, «One of the clearest signals we see is that an
increase in global temperatures leads to an
increase in
extreme or heavy
precipitation events.»
Expected
increases in
extreme heat and drought events will bring changes in
precipitation, air and water temperatures, air density and humidity, write Matthew Bartos and Mikhail Chester in the current issue of the research journal Nature Climate Change.
«This
increase in water vapor has contributed to
increasing total
precipitation in the fall season, but does not necessarily mean an
increase in
extreme precipitation events,» she added.
At the opposite end of
precipitation extremes, drought also poses risks to public health and safety.192 Drought conditions may
increase the environmental exposure to a broad set of health hazards including wildfires, dust storms,
extreme heat events, flash flooding, degraded water quality, and reduced water quantity.
But beyond the
increased amount of
precipitation, Wehner adds, «this study more generally
increases our understanding of how the various processes in
extreme storms can change as the overall climate warms.»
As the 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report notes, models predict that
increasing temperature ought to cause greater
precipitation extremes in both directions — both drought and flooding, though there are likely more areas of heavy
precipitation.
Researchers charge global warming with projected significant
increases in the frequency of both
extreme precipitation and landfalling atmospheric rivers
This is addressed by evaluating change in global or large - scale patterns in the frequency or intensity of
extremes (e.g., observed widespread intensification of
precipitation extremes attributed to human influence,
increase in frequency and intensity of hot
extremes) and by event attribution methods.
What goes up must eventually come down, so climate science projects that
extreme precipitation should
increase.
In the second real - time
extreme weather attribution study in the context of the World Weather Attribution project the team found a 5 - 80 %
increase in the likelihood of heavy
precipitation like those associated with storm Desmond to occur due to anthropogenic climate change.
«We show that at the present - day warming of 0.85 °C about 18 % of the moderate daily
precipitation extremes over land are attributable to the observed temperature
increase since pre-industrial times, which in turn primarily results from human influence,» the research team said.
Rising CO2 levels have been linked to the globe's average temperature rise as well as a host of other changes to the climate system including sea level rise, shifts in
precipitation, ocean acidification, and an
increase in
extreme heat.
Severe Weather and
Precipitation: Many areas in the United States will experience more frequent and extreme storm events; this includes high winds and increased p
Precipitation: Many areas in the United States will experience more frequent and
extreme storm events; this includes high winds and
increased precipitationprecipitation.
I am interpreting that to mean that there is a trend towards
increasing annual 1 - day
extreme precipitation — but I am not sure how to quantify that change.
doi: 10.1130 / G23261A.1 v. 35 no. 3 p. 215 - 218 Abrupt
increase in seasonal
extreme precipitation at the Paleocene - Eocene boundary B Schmitz, V Pujalte — Geology, 2007 — geology.gsapubs.org A prominent
increase in atmospheric CO2 at the Paleocene - Eocene boundary, ca. 55 Ma, led to the warmest Earth of the Cenozoic for ∼ 100 ky High - resolution studies of continental flood - plain sediment records across this boundary....
This rhythm in storm frequency may explain some of the recently observed
increases in
extreme precipitation events.
These variability trends indicate that the frequency of
extremes (more drought events and more heavy
precipitation events) has
increased whereas the mean has remained approximately the same.
Here is an interesting report on the links between tropical temperatures and
increased likelihood of
extreme precipitation events:
The report, «Atmospheric Warming and the Amplification of
Precipitation Extremes,» previewed in Science Express this Thursday, August 7, and published in an upcoming issue of Science, found that both observations and models indicated an
increase in heavy rainstorms in response to a warmer climate.
Averaging smoothes out day - to - day and year - to - year natural weather variability and
extremes, removing much of the chaotic behavior, revealing any underlying long term trends in climate, such as a long term
increase or decrease in temperature, or long term shifts in
precipitation patterns.
I certainly agree that continued warming will
increase the frequency of a variety of
extremes related to heat, sea level,
precipitation, etc. and in fact, some of that is already happening.
Nevertheless, the IPCC AR5 presents an outlook of
increasing extreme precipitation in tropical cyclones making landfall (p. 106, Table TS.2), which is relevant for the flooding connected to Harvey.
... «there is evidence of
increases in the heavy and
extreme precipitation events» in mid-high northern latitudes.
So: The study finds a fingerprint of anthropogenic influences on large scale
increase in
precipitation extremes, with remaining uncertainties — namely that there is still a possibility that the widespread
increase in heavy
precipitation could be due to an unusual event of natural variability.The intensification of
extreme rainfall is expected with warming, and there is a clear physical mechanism for it, but it is never possible to completely separate a signal of external forcing from climate variability — the separation will always be statistical in nature.
--
Increases in intensity and frequency of heat waves and
extreme precipitation events (a category in which it includes droughts, floods, hurricanes and major storms)
Changes in
precipitation regimes and
extreme events can cause ecosystem transitions,
increase transport of nutrients and pollutants to downstream ecosystems, and overwhelm the ability of natural systems to mitigate harm to people from these events.
Changes in
extreme precipitation projected by models, and thus the impacts of future changes in
extreme precipitation, may be underestimated because models seem to underestimate the observed
increase in heavy
precipitation with warming.
«Since the AR4, there is some new limited direct evidence for an anthropogenic influence on
extreme precipitation, including a formal detection and attribution study and indirect evidence that
extreme precipitation would be expected to have
increased given the evidence of anthropogenic influence on various aspects of the global hydrological cycle and high confidence that the intensity of
extreme precipitation events will
increase with warming, at a rate well exceeding that of the mean
precipitation..
In the Northeast, «Communities are affected by heat waves, more
extreme precipitation events, and coastal flooding due to sea level rise and storm surge,» for example, while in the Southeast and Caribbean, «Decreased water availability, exacerbated by population growth and land - use change, causes
increased competition for water.
In particular, the report authors predicted that with climate change there would be an
increase in certain types of
extreme weather, including daily high temperatures, heat waves, heavy
precipitation and droughts, in some places.
Our state level analyses of
extreme precipitation events shows a strong
increasing trend since the 1950s, with 40 of 48 states showing at least some
increasing incidence.
Impact of Global Warming Sea level rising Altered
precipitation pattern Change in soil moisture content
Increase in some
extreme weather More flood more.
Warming temperatures, changes in
precipitation, and more
extreme weather are projected to
increase populations of disease - carrying vectors like mosquitoes with West Nile Virus and of the types of bacteria and toxic algae that contaminate shellfish and recreational waters for activities like swimming and boating.
resulting in
increased severity and / or intensity of heat waves, heavy
precipitation events, droughts, tropical cyclones and
extreme high sea levels [AR4 WGI SPM, p. 8],
The results indicate that
extreme precipitation events consistently
increase by the middle of the twenty - first century for all return periods (49 — 52 %), but changes may become more profound by the end of the twenty - first century (81 — 101 %).
Increases in the frequency and intensity of
extreme precipitation events are projected for all U.S. regions.
Large - scale flooding can also occur due to
extreme precipitation in the absence of snowmelt (for example, Rush Creek and the Root River, Minnesota, in August 2007 and multiple rivers in southern Minnesota in September 2010).84 These warm - season events are projected to
increase in magnitude.
Figure 9.6: Maps show the
increase in frequency of
extreme daily
precipitation events (a daily amount that now occurs just once in 20 years) by the later part of this century (2081 - 2100) compared to the latter part of the last century (1981 - 2000).
Given projected
increases in the frequency and intensity of
extreme precipitation events in the Midwest (Chapter 2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 6), 57 it appears that sewer overflow will continue to constitute a significant current health threat and a critical source of climate change vulnerability for major urban areas within the Midwest.
2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 5).2 Regional climate models (RCMs) using the same emissions scenario also project
increased spring
precipitation (9 % in 2041 - 2062 relative to 1979 - 2000) and decreased summer
precipitation (by an average of about 8 % in 2041 - 2062 relative to 1979 - 2000) particularly in the southern portions of the Midwest.12
Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation are projected across the entire region in both GCM and RCM simulations (Figure 18.6), and these increases are generally larger than the projected changes in average precipitat
Increases in the frequency and intensity of
extreme precipitation are projected across the entire region in both GCM and RCM simulations (Figure 18.6), and these
increases are generally larger than the projected changes in average precipitat
increases are generally larger than the projected changes in average
precipitation.12, 2