His forecast horizon is often vague, but he seems mostly to address
extreme sentiment readings and their implications for return horizons several months or more in the future, and we grade his forecasts accordingly.
This suggests that to the extent investors must market time based on valuations, they should not just focus on valuation, but also bet
against extreme sentiment, the kind that appears at most once in a decade.
Presently, in addition to undervaluation and
extreme sentiment, we already have the beginnings of favorable market action.
People will read
the extreme sentiment into it.