Sentences with phrase «extreme tail event»
But I like the idea of a small deferred annuity to insure against the extreme tail event of living into my 90s.
http://www.theretirementmanifesto.com/ Not exact matches
It has the propensity to significantly underestimate the probability of extreme volatility, known as tail events, that can lead to the permanent loss of capital.
By definition, we can categorize such extreme stock market losses «tail events.»
If Spitznagel's thesis is correct that the frequency and magnitude of tail events increases with overvaluation, investors need to exercise caution given the extreme level of the equity q ratio.
Imagine, say, a bell - shaped curve based on the null hypothesis that climate change is not happening (and not having an impact on increasing extreme weather events), and there is this really long tail out to infinity; and supposing we get an off - the - charts category 7 hurricane in January, we still can not attribute it or its extra intensity or unusual seasonality to climate change, even if there is only a one in kazillion chance it might occur without climate change having an effect — that is, it is way out there in the very tiny tail of this null hypothesis curve that fades out into infinity — the tail that says, afterall, anything's possible.
This aspect also matters for extreme events which always involve small statistical samples (by definition — tails of the distribution) and therefore we should expect to see patchy and noisy maps due to random sampling fluctuations.
A high occurrence of new record - events is an indication of a change in the «tails» of the frequency distribution and thus that values that in the past were considered extreme are becoming more common.
At the tail end of the full paper, capping a paragraph about a weak spot in the analysis — that the observed trend in extreme precipitation events exceeds what is produced by various climate models — comes a sentence about uncertainties:
Here we see why a small shift of the average can en - tail a huge shift in the probabilities of extreme events.
«The extreme «low - tail» events are becoming more important for policymakers to think about,» Victor said.
On a tangent, but still within the issues raised in the original post, this kind of thinking is useful for analyzing extreme events (the ones in the fat tails).
Climate change is expected to shift frequency statistics for weather and climate events, as illustrated in Figure 2.10, in ways that affect the likelihood of extreme events on the tails of the distribution, either the high side («extremely hot» for example) or the low side («extremely cold»).
I sort of thought that no extreme single event could be attributed to GW, bec GW is at a more macro statistical level, and I suppose there is a long tail in non-GW weather event possibilities in which such an event could have occurred under non-GW conditions.
Given the spatial and temporal uncertainties of many extreme weather events, particularly with respect to future changes in climate, facilities are generally engineered to be resilient to extreme event «tails,» with the inclusion of additional safety factors built in to cover a number of engineering uncertainties.