Decision - and policy - makers and stakeholders are increasingly asking for reliable predictions of
extremes on time scales from days to seasons to centuries.
Not exact matches
well i get where you come from but i wouldnt call it less passionate but more practical, i just do nt like to be butthurt ^ ^ i am fan of arsenal to enjoy the
time i spend
on football but if it ends in failures i try to get over its and be constructive about it, and i am not a fan of people who cant control their anger pains and have to project their frustrations onto the people who could be held responsible but not in this
scale, in my opinion of the society humans should be able to control their emotions a bit and never stoop as low as to be abusive and i do think that a lot of comments
on justarsenal were abusive and sorry but i do nt think of it as passionate an
extreme example would be ultras you could call them muuuuch more passionate than me but in my opinion they are just scum of football, but of course i do nt want to compare the JA - commenters to ultras xD i just tried to illustrate my opinion ^ ^
However, while the models are useful for examining large -
scale climate patterns and how they are likely to evolve over
time, they can not be relied
on for an accurate depiction of
extreme weather events.
Sometimes, teleconnections
on intra-seasonal
time scales are associated with
extreme weather events, such as the so - called Pineapple Express, which is characterized by heavy rains that extend from the Hawaiian Islands to the west coast of North America.
I know David Gaughran has some fairly accurate estimations that he's used before, but here's a what if for you: What if you could accurately model Amazon's ebook sales using data submitted by selfpub authors (which I remember seeing a blogger
on the Writer's Cafe who was already doing this with
extreme accuracy) combined with a sliding
scale, using the same data, to determine sales at any given
time (because being the # 5 bestseller in the Mystery category
on Tuesday doesn't mean the same sales
on Thursday).
Our Tietsche, et al., 2011 paper basically shows that both extent and volume can recover
on similar
time scales after
extreme loss events, in particular for the thin ice that we have around nowadays.
Pressing the frontiers of climate science and related research is vital, but it's wishful thinking to expect further science to substantially narrow uncertainties
on time scales that matter when it comes to regional or short - term climate forecasting, the range of possible warming from a big buildup of carbon dioxide, the impact of greenhouse forcing
on rare
extremes and the like.
PCIC welcomes Dr. Alex Cannon who has joined PCIC as a Research Climatologist to work alongside the consortium's scientific and technical staff in the development of new tools and methodology for predicting climate
extremes on seasonal and decadal
time scales.
The effect of large -
scale model
time step and multiscale coupling frequency
on cloud climatology, vertical structure, and rainfall
extremes in a superparameterized global climate model.
My investigations of the properties of the lunar orbit indicate that the strengths of
extreme proxigean spring tides are affected by two main alignment periods that reoccur
on distinctly different
time scales.
Combining these forcing periods, you would expect that, over extended periods of
time, the effects of
extreme proxigean spring tides should manifest themselves in the climate indices
on time scales that are set by the beat periods between these two fundamental
time scales.
The persistent barotropic vertical structure of these forced waves with m = 6, 7, and 8
on a monthly
time scale in the
extreme years is clearly documented in corresponding maps (see, e.g., figures S1 and S2 in ref.
As one of the studies (Nicholson, 2005) cited by the petitioner states: «The fluctuations between «wet» and «dry» in the Sahel / Soudan zones are
extreme even
on decadal and multi-decadal
time scales.»
The fact that people have such discussions with a straight face at the same
time as they can not actually say which regions will be warmer, cooler, wetter, drier, more
extreme, less
extreme (i.e. provide people with some kind of advice
on what to plan for at a
scale relevant to investment decisions) it quite incredible to me.
The work of the theme anticipates the need to provide information
on multiple
time and spatial
scales and the requirement to understand potential changes in
extreme hydrologic events.
People may or may not adjust their behavior in response to climate change, and they may or may not do so
on a
time scale that mitigates
extreme harm.
For the most
extreme scenarios and for the
time scales of several hundred years or longer much uncertainty remains, but much uncertainty remains also
on the significance of the development after we have reached the maximum and the concentration has turned back
on the lessening trend.
We have been focused
on climate models rather than
on climate dynamics and theory that is needed to understand the effects of the sun
on climate, the network of natural internal variability
on multiple
time scales, the mathematics of
extreme events, and the predictability of a complex system characterized by spatio - temporal chaos.
On decadal
time scales, the greatest vulnerability is to
extreme weather events: scenarios of frequency (clustering), worst case
`... rather than
on climate dynamics and theory that is needed to understand the effects of the sun
on climate, the network of natural internal variability
on multiple
time scales, the mathematics of
extreme events, and predictability of a complex system characterized by spatio - temporal chaos.
9.3.1 Global Mean Response 9.3.1.1 1 % / yr CO2 increase (CMIP2) experiments 9.3.1.2 Projections of future climate from forcing scenario experiments (IS92a) 9.3.1.3 Marker scenario experiments (SRES) 9.3.2 Patterns of Future Climate Change 9.3.2.1 Summary 9.3.3 Range of Temperature Response to SRES Emission Scenarios 9.3.3.1 Implications for temperature of stabilisation of greenhouse gases 9.3.4 Factors that Contribute to the Response 9.3.4.1 Climate sensitivity 9.3.4.2 The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake 9.3.4.3 Thermohaline circulation changes 9.3.4.4
Time - scales of response 9.3.5 Changes in Variability 9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 Conclus
Time -
scales of response 9.3.5 Changes in Variability 9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer
time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 Conclus
time -
scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary
on changes in
extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 Conclusions
Until we figure out how to do this
on the weekly to seasonal
time scales, trying to infer
extreme events from coarse resolution climate models with insufficient number of ensemble members is like voodoo.
The 90 items of the questionnaire are scored
on a five - point Likert
scale from none (0) to
extreme (4), indicating the rate of occurrence of the symptom during the
time period in question.