In following the course of projections for this storm, and then the burst of criticism about
failed intensity
forecasts, I was brought back to the hours I spent with meteorologists at the National
Hurricane Center in September, 2004, as they tracked the course of Hurricane Ivan (shortly before I headed to Alabama to cover its landfall as a major hurricane; here's a narrated report I filed from
Hurricane Center in September, 2004, as they tracked the course of
Hurricane Ivan (shortly before I headed to Alabama to cover its landfall as a major hurricane; here's a narrated report I filed from
Hurricane Ivan (shortly before I headed to Alabama to cover its landfall as a major
hurricane; here's a narrated report I filed from
hurricane; here's a narrated report I filed from Mobile).
In doing so, they
fail to recognize the important distinction between the operational
hurricane forecasting problem (a classical initial value problem) and the boundary value problem addressed in KT04, where one is concerned with the maximum
hurricane intensity that is possible for a given set of largescale environmental conditions (i.e., a climatological or statistical distribution of maximum intensities).