Not exact matches
Anyone who claims to be able to accurately predict the future will
fail if they
base that
prediction on data that is no longer relevant or current.
Now, my understanding of your position is that you made that original
prediction based on the belief that the PRC would be instituting reforms to deleverage aggressively and transfer wealth to the consumer (such that the incorrect
prediction was more that you were overly optimistic about the PRC's willingness to head off these systematic risks) and that your current prognosis of ~ 3 % GDP growth has an entirely separate causative element; that is to say, your previous
prediction was
based on the idea the PRC would be enacting reforms to ward off systematic risks, whereas your current estimation of GDP growth is instead
based on the drag produced by these very systematic risks the PRC has
failed to deal with.
The last time it disappointed, in the third quarter of last year, when it
failed to meet its own
prediction for new subscriber adds, it gave a strange excuse: the transition from mag - stripe to chip -
based credit cards.
The segmentation theory of events, on which the published study is
based, argues that the brain acts on the grounds of constant
predictions based on previous experience; When these
predictions fail, for example because there is an unexpected change of context, the brain interprets this moment as a boundary event, which delimits the neural coding of the lived experiences.
Looking back on the past three decades of test -
based accountability, I have to qualify my early
prediction that many teachers would
fail.
If your year 10 stock market
predictions based on P / E10
fail to work out, they will snap back by year 20.
Some years ago I presented a paper at a (mathematically
based) conference that showed that a particular, machine learning, technical
prediction technique
failed badly in things like the «Tech wreck.»
However, both Ptolemeic astronomical
predictions and cyclical fits to the climate inherently
fail because their
predictions are not
based on physical sources of the cycles, but on the siren call of the beauty of cycles for cycles sake.
It is absurd that, with the experience of these other democracies before them, and at the very time when the whole IPCC CAGW meme is in a state of collapse that Obama has decided to side step Congress and force through by regulation carbon emission controls
based on his naïve faith in the
failed predictions of the IPCC process.
Every
prediction that has
failed from Malthus to club of Rome and now climate catastrophe was
based on unlimited exponential growth as an assumption.
A science that is just
based on journalists and politicians crying out loud and experts with a perfect track tecord of
failed predictions is no science but a fascist dogma.
In the late 1960s, Paul Ehrlich famously made dire
predictions of doom,
based on his attempts to model the biosphere and our relation to it, which
failed to materialise.
I think so, because a) humans are so damn ingenious, and b) necessity is the mother of invention, and c) neither Malthus, Paul Ehrlich, nor any other of the many
failed «we're running out of resources» serial doomcasters have ever made one successful
prediction of such a resource -
based catastrophe.
And despite grim
predictions, many do go on to law school, either with high hopes of graduating at the top of the class, or that somehow,
based on their determination and work ethic, they'll find a job where many others of comparable credentials
failed.