His Climategate fame is derived from his concern about a «travesty» that «we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment,» in addition to his other
failed predictions such as future hurricane horrors while administering discipline as one of the scientific journal brown shirts.
His Climategate fame is derived from his concern about a «travesty» that «we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment,» in addition to his other
failed predictions such as
Not exact matches
Now, my understanding of your position is that you made that original
prediction based on the belief that the PRC would be instituting reforms to deleverage aggressively and transfer wealth to the consumer (
such that the incorrect
prediction was more that you were overly optimistic about the PRC's willingness to head off these systematic risks) and that your current prognosis of ~ 3 % GDP growth has an entirely separate causative element; that is to say, your previous
prediction was based on the idea the PRC would be enacting reforms to ward off systematic risks, whereas your current estimation of GDP growth is instead based on the drag produced by these very systematic risks the PRC has
failed to deal with.
Predictions such as those of Malthus and Ehrlich fell down on a simple point: they
failed to see what came next.
«We found that in years when the sea ice extent departed strongly from the trend,
such as in 2012 and 2013,
predictions failed regardless of the method used to forecast the September sea ice extent,» said Julienne Stroeve, a senior scientist at NSIDC and professor at University of College London.
Given the zero percent historical success rate of apocalyptic
predictions, coupled with the incrementally gradual development of AI over the decades, we have plenty of time to build in
fail - safe systems to prevent any
such AI apocalypse.
Existing
prediction systems
failed to forecast the global crash of 2008, which led to several governments bailing out their banks and European nations,
such as Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain, being plunged into a sovereign debt crisis.
[11] The original sales
predictions were not met, with the Avalon
failing to challenge rivals
such as the Holden Commodore and the Ford Falcon.
To point out out these major
failings in scientific
prediction is to be labelled a «denier» by
such as yourself, when it is you and your clan who deny the existence of contrary evidence.
The litany of
failed, alarmist
predictions is why scientific organisations,
such as the BoM, have — tragically — become almost the last places to hear the truth about global warming climate change.
If, however, the past
predictions have
fail to materialize, it is irresponsible to put the world community into
such panic and commit huge resources to combat something that might or might not happen.
Some critics point to climate models and weather measurements that
fail to match
such predictions.
I think so, because a) humans are so damn ingenious, and b) necessity is the mother of invention, and c) neither Malthus, Paul Ehrlich, nor any other of the many
failed «we're running out of resources» serial doomcasters have ever made one successful
prediction of
such a resource - based catastrophe.
The 2016 election Trump again reminded everyone that the vast majority of experts, pundits and journalists are not only terrible at short - term and long - term
predictions, but also their
failed prognostications usually, and directly, lead to public reactions that would not have occurred otherwise,
such as the post-election anti-Trump riots.
The effect was to let the public be deluded about
such things, by those who hoped that the public would rise up and demand politicial action, while the climate scientists could comfortably sit back, let the wild claims appear to be part of their famously «settled» science, knowing that if the «
predictions»
failed, they could point to their refereed journal papers that made no
such explicit claims, or at least none with claimed certainty, thus achieving sensational scare stories but with plausible deniability.
One
such post quoting Don Easterbrook (of
failed global cooling
prediction fame) began with the following objection: