Sentences with phrase «falllacy of a linear trend»

A comparison of the linear trends from these two series indicates that about 69 % of the increase in ocean heat content during 1955 to 1998 (the period when estimates from both time series are available) occurred in the upper 700 m of the World Ocean.

The geographical distribution of the linear trend of 0 to 700 m heat content for 1955 to 2003 for the World Ocean is shown in Figure 5.2.

Tests of linear trend across increasing quintiles of intake were conducted by assigning the medians of intakes in quintiles treated as a continuous variable.

Tests of linear trend across categories of coffee consumption were performed by assigning participants the midpoint of their coffee - consumption category and entering this new variable into a separate Cox proportional - hazards regression model.

In addition, the regression of a linear trend model can produce a coefficient of determination, r ².

(2) BEST talks of small wobbles and no mention of linear trend.

You seem to be thinking only in terms of a linear trend.

The DSLPA index computed from HadSLP2 shows a much more «trend - like» reduction than the datasets shown in the manuscript, in which the 1970s shift plays a less pivotal role; though the amplitude of slope of the linear trend is consistent with the model and observations.

Internal variability as estimated from observations can't explain sea - ice loss Superposition of a linear trend and internal variability explains sea - ice loss Observational sea - ice record shows no signs of self - acceleration

As you also point out, that kind of linear trend is very unlikely to be useful much past a couple of decades which is where the trajectory of forcings we choose as a society will really make the difference.

# 242 Jim Eager in # 229 showed graphs of the linear trend of monthly data from January 1999 through December 2008.

PAber, I am surprised that you do not understand the purpose and significance of linear trends, particularly when you emphasize the noisiness of the data.

If nonlinearities are important, as you suggest, one would expect the result to be... well, crap, not the emergence of a linear trend, and certainly not a linear trend with magnitude equal throughout the observation period.

Piece-wise joined or step - like constructs of linear trends (figs 1 and 3) would always suffer from the arbitrariness of the breakpoints.

The continuation of the linear trend from August 1975 to July 1997 (green dashed), would have predicted a temperature anomaly in August 2012 of 0.524 ºC.

(Top) Distribution of linear trends of annual land precipitation amounts over the period 1901 to 2005 (% per century) and (middle) 1979 to 2005 (% per decade).

While it is possible to consider fitting an upward curve to the graph @ 426 in place of the linear trend, the cause of the increases in Antarctic SIA / SIE would be worth looking at first.

This is required because only the magnitude of the linear trend can be meaningfully compared for such a short time series in the presence of substantial inter-annual variability.

In particular, in the presence of a linear trend, low frequency (long period) cyclical features are obscured.

Talk about short term data — and the utter silliness of linear trends on this.

The geographical distribution of the linear trend of 0 to 700 m heat content for 1955 to 2003 for the World Ocean is shown in Figure 5.2.

A comparison of the linear trends from these two series indicates that about 69 % of the increase in ocean heat content during 1955 to 1998 (the period when estimates from both time series are available) occurred in the upper 700 m of the World Ocean.

Any filtered average of a linear trend is the same as the trend itself, so the comparison I'm making is absolutely proper.

Phrases like «at this rate» indicate that they are basing their opinion on extrapolation of a linear trend.

«You made up extrapolation of linear trends.»

AKA extrapolation of a linear trend.

Then why did you engage in word games when you are smart enough to understand the concept of a linear trend plus noise.

If the DATA were falling off that extension of the linear trend line from 1975 to 1997, then that might be evidence that the warming was really slowing down.

Dr. Pielke subsequently criticized the application of a linear trend to this data:

The r - squared of a linear trend line of this partial Sine wave is 0.88... 88 % of the data fit the trend line.

Again Mr. Bartemis, I ask you to please provide me with an explanation of the linear trend in this data plot: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/plot/esrl-co2/trend

A coincidence of linear trends has one or two degrees of freedom.

On top of this linear trend is some sort of sine wave.

UNless of couirse the climate is cyclical, in which case any sort of linear trend is wholly misleading.

A result of linear trends and an apparent discontinuity.

And that is why I've joined the critics of linear trends in GTA.

The time series approximately corresponds to a trend, and this pattern and its variations account for 67 % of the linear trend of PDSI from 1900 to 2002 over the global land area.

You'd have to ask the chart's creator why they gave that linearization instead of the linear trend of the raw data...

Throughout the chapter, results of linear trend analyses are presented that include estimates of statistical significance.

I left out the possiblity of a linear trend, due to whatever.

However, it is instructive to note that a simple model of a linear trend plus sine wave matches history so well, particularly since it assumes such a small contribution from CO2 (yet matches history well) and since in prior IPCC reports, the IPCC and most modelers simply refused to include cyclic functions like AMO and PDO in their models.

While these data are most often interpreted in the context of a linear trend, it is instructive to interpret the record in the context of a (qualitative) change point analysis, defined by changes in trend, mean value, amplitude of the annual cycle, and interannual variability.

(i) For each of the outcome variables, a linear regression was performed for each student group, which provides measures of the linear trends as effects of the intervention.

Not exact matches

Finally, I showed that a simple extrapolation of this robust linear trend means that Pharma's IRR will hit 0 % by 2020, which implies that the industry is now on the brink of terminal decline as it enters a vicious cycle of negative growth with diminishing sales and investment into R&D.

Finally, by substituting the historic linear trend above into the IRR term of this equation, and the industry average investment period of 13 years into the c term, we get the following formula, which shows that nominal R&D productivity / ROI currently stands at about 1.2 (i.e., we get only 20 % back on top of our original R&D investment after 13 years), is declining exponentially by about 10 % per year, and will hit 1.0 (zero net return on investment) by 2020:

A simple linear extrapolation of their data suggests that by 2027 the trend in technological improvement in the oilsands will catch up to the declining efficiency of conventional oil production.

This contention is critical in relation to Hartshorne's view of personal identity, which stresses the linear or «personally ordered» sequences or «trends of becoming» (k, 1, m, n).

In both surveys there were significant linear associations between socio - economic deprivation and intakes of energy, non-milk extrinsic sugars (NMES) as a percentage of food energy, sugar - sweetened beverages, confectionery, crisps and savoury snacks and leisure - time screen use (all higher among children in more deprived areas), while intakes of fruit, fruit juice and vegetables showed the opposite trend.

However, the odds of diarrhoeal disease increased with the time since breast feeding cessation (pT = 0.002 for linear trend in all infants).

The number of stair - related injuries decreased 11.6 % during the study period, with a significant linear trend from 101335 cases in 1999 to 89619 cases in 2008 (m = − 1103, P =.011).