Inflation expectations have dropped back during the past year, and
the falls in headline inflation that are in prospect could help to reinforce those lower expectations.
Not exact matches
Falling oil prices and the strong U.S. dollar have dampened
headline consumer price index (CPI)
inflation, but the recent core CPI print suggests a clear firming
in inflationary conditions.
After rising for several months, annual
inflation in the eurozone
fell further than consensus expectations
in March, easing back from 2.0 % to 1.5 % at the
headline level, and from 0.9 % to 0.7 % at the core level.
Given that the
headline payroll growth has been solid, the latest round of US GDP data (for Q2) surprised to the upside, and personal consumption, real personal consumption and personal income data also surprised to the upside (July data), PCE
inflation (
fell to 1.4 % Y / Y
in July, hitting the lowest since late 2015) and general wage growth has been the missing piece of the puzzle for the Fed.
Falls in mortgage interest rates detracted 0.5 of a percentage point from the quarterly
headline rate and, on a year - ended basis, interest rate reductions that have already occurred will keep the
headline inflation rate below the underlying rate for some time.
Not only did
headline inflation turn negative again (at -0.2 %), but core
inflation unexpectedly
fell to 0.7 % y - o - y, a 10 - month low, raising new concerns over the underlying trend
in consumer prices.
Barnaby Lenon, chairman of the ISC, said: «A concerted effort to halt grade
inflation in recent years has seen the top grades both nationally and
in independent schools level off and
fall slightly, so it is encouraging to see the
headline A * and A figure remain solid.