We also obtain an empirical estimate of f = 2 - 4 for
the fast feedback processes (water vapor, clouds, sea ice) operating on 10 - 100 year time scales by comparing the cooling due to slow or specified changes (land ice, CO2, vegetation) to the total cooling at 18K.
The long lifetime of the fossil fuel carbon in the climate system and the persistence of ocean warming for millennia [201] provide sufficient time for the climate system to achieve full response to
the fast feedback processes included in the 3 °C climate sensitivity.
This provides a stable temperature structure for
the fast feedback processes to operate and maintain the quasi-equilibrium amounts of water vapor and clouds.
It is standard practice to include only
the fast feedback processes, including changes in water vapour, in the calculation of climate sensitivity, but to exclude possible induced changes in the concentrations of other greenhouse gases (as well as other slow feedback processes).
This provides a stable reference temperature structure for
the fast feedback processes to operate and maintain the amounts of atmospheric water vapor and clouds at their quasi-equilibrium concentrations.
http://arxiv.org/pdf/0804.1126 «Paleoclimate data show that climate sensitivity is 3 °C for doubled CO2, including only
fast feedback processes.
The long lifetime of the fossil fuel carbon in the climate system and the persistence of ocean warming for millennia [201] provide sufficient time for the climate system to achieve full response to
the fast feedback processes included in the 3 °C climate sensitivity.
A 2008 study led by James Hansen found that climate sensitivity to «
fast feedback processes» is 3 °C, but when accounting for longer - term feedbacks (such as ice sheet disintegration, vegetation migration, and greenhouse gas release from soils, tundra or ocean), if atmospheric CO2 remains at the doubled level, the sensitivity increases to 6 °C based on paleoclimatic (historical climate) data.
Together with
fast feedbacks processes, via changes of water vapor, clouds, and the vertical temperature profile, these slow amplifying feedbacks were responsible for almost the entire glacial - to - interglacial temperature change [59]--[62].
These GCM experiments further re-emphasized the key point of our Science paper that water vapor is indeed
a fast feedback process in the climate system.
Not exact matches
Some of these
feedback processes are poorly understood — like how climate change affects clouds — and many are difficult to model, therefore the climate's propensity to amplify any small change makes predicting how much and how
fast the climate will change inherently difficult.
Thanks to these
feedback processes, the Arctic has begun to warm twice as
fast as any other region on the planet.
Jerome
Fast has lead a team of PNNL scientists that have contributed a gas - phase chemistry mechanism, an sectional aerosol model, cloud chemistry, cloud - aerosol interactions, and radiative
feedback processes into the chemistry version of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF - chem) model.
«When the melting starts, there are positive
feedback processes that can lead to even
faster melting.»
People coming from the technology world would be very familiar with this type of iterative
process and framework, which makes content available
faster, gets real - time
feedback from the target audience and shapes the final product based on collaboration.
This empirical climate sensitivity corresponds to the Charney (1979) definition of climate sensitivity, in which «
fast feedback»
processes are allowed to operate, but long - lived atmospheric gases, ice sheet area, land area and vegetation cover are fixed forcings.
Once the ice reaches the equator, the equilibrium climate is significantly colder than what would initiate melting at the equator, but if CO2 from geologic emissions build up (they would, but very slowly — geochemical
processes provide a negative
feedback by changing atmospheric CO2 in response to climate changes, but this is generally very slow, and thus can not prevent
faster changes from
faster external forcings) enough, it can initiate melting — what happens then is a runaway in the opposite direction (until the ice is completely gone — the extreme warmth and CO2 amount at that point, combined with left - over glacial debris available for chemical weathering, will draw CO2 out of the atmosphere, possibly allowing some ice to return).
I suppose that for a 3,7 W / m2 forcing, the additional energy of forcing +
feedbacks is used for
faster processes (melting ice, evaporation, warming of subsurface oceanic layers, etc.) and the new equilibrium is reach on a quite short timescale.
Currently, the HCV is not unlike the massive volcanism of the PETM in that it is overwhelming all natural
feedback processes and CO2 levels are rising at the
fastest pace ever seen in the geological record.
«Given that the Arctic is warming
faster than the rest of the globe, understanding the
processes and
feedbacks of this polar amplification is a top priority.
That conclusion, in conjunction with a climate model incorporating only the most fundamental
processes, constrains average
fast -
feedback climate sensitivity to be in the upper part of the sensitivity range that is normally quoted [1,48,99], i.e. the sensitivity is greater than 3 °C for 2 × CO2.
New structural forms are needed for climate models that are capable of simulating the natural internal variability of the coupled ocean - atmosphere system on timescales from days to millennia and that can accurately account for the
fast thermodynamic
feedback processes associated with clouds and water vapor.»
And if this
process of water changing state, which is pretty much just a
process of physics and a bit of chemistry, is so very easy to get wrong — specifically, is so easy to model too conservatively so the models predict wrongly that it will be a very slow
process when in fact it seems to be a much
faster process — how confident can we be that other models and estimates of
processes that involve multiple
feedbacks that include chemical and biological interactions as well as physical ones aren't even more wildly inaccurate on the «conservative» side?
Chuck, the quote seems pretty accurate to me, but some will cavil about the use of the phrase «out - of - control runaway warming
process» for «each» of those systems; but there are certainly
feedbacks associated with most of them that will indeed drive toward more warming, though some effects are going to be stronger and
faster than others.
By adopting
processes that are
faster, leaner and with more
feedback loops, both this book and the ILTA sessions suggest we can turn those massive boil - the - ocean stalled projects into that which entrepreneurs and innovators already know well — the Minimum Viable Product... [more]
OxygenOS» new platform enables a more streamlined software development
process, resulting in
faster, more consistent updates guided largely by user
feedback.