The S&P 500 index, or the equity markets, in general, will likely be reporting losses for the first quarter, largely due to fears of
faster Fed rate hikes and the rising bond yields, political turmoil in Washington and increased odds of US - China trade war.
Faster Fed rate hikes would make stocks less attractive to some investors.
The dollar will likely only resume its uptrend once markets start pricing in
faster Fed rate increases.
Not exact matches
The minutes showed that
Fed officials thought it may be appropriate to raise interest
rates over the next few years
faster than previously expected.
The low interest
rates that the Federal Reserve relied on to kick - start the economy, meanwhile,
fed this same dynamic, making it easier for
fast - growing companies to borrow money to grow further — and making bond interest look unattractive compared with stock dividends.
But still, the
faster the pace of unwinding and
Fed rate hikes, the bigger risk it poses.
«The
Fed may raise
rates at a
faster pace than the economy can withstand,» Stifel Nicolaus» chief economist told CNBC's «On the Money.»
The
Fed needs to drive down long - term borrowing
rates because the economy isn't growing
fast enough to reduce high unemployment, Bernanke said in a speech to the Economic Club of Indiana.
If the market sees the
Fed behind the curve, interest
rates could rise further and
faster than expected.
Powell in statements throughout the year, culminating with his recent Senate confirmation hearing, has been clear he sees little risk of inflation that would prompt the
Fed to raise
rates faster than expected, and takes weak wage growth as a sign that sidelined workers remain to be drawn into jobs.
As the tax plan advanced in Congress, forecasting shops at Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and others penciled in a
faster pace of
Fed rate increases — essentially expecting the
Fed would need to lean against the inflationary outcome.
Bond yields rose and stocks slumped after an unexpected rise in consumer inflation to its
fastest pace in a year, making it more likely the
Fed will raise interest
rates three or more times this year.
The
Fed reckons U.S. gross domestic product could expand by as much as 2.7 % in 2016, which would be considerably
faster than the
rate of growth — roughly 2 % — that policy makers think the American economy can handle without stoking inflation.
Yellen said the
Fed should have been raising interest
rates faster in those years, and with less predictability.
And what if the economy heats up too
fast and the
Fed slams on the brakes by raising interest
rates?
«The
Fed is signaling it is keeping to the gradual path and not hiking
rates at
faster pace (at least for now),» Alvin Liew, senior economist for UOB in Singapore, said in a note.
Higher inflation this year should push the
Fed to raise the federal funds
rate at a
faster pace, which will have knock - on effect on interest
rates and the bond market.
Yellen said asset valuations including stock prices in part reflect expectations that the
Fed will normalize
rates faster than other central banks.
Amid market concerns that the
Fed was about to resume its
rate - hiking cycle, Brainard instead offered cautionary tones against moving too
fast.
«A strong job market, accelerating wage growth, and expectations of
faster rate hikes from the
Fed all have played roles in pushing up longer - term
rates.»
Other
Fed policymakers have suggested fiscal stimulus, with the unemployment
rate now at a healthy 4.7 %, could lead to a
faster pace of
rate hikes than currently anticipated.
When Bernanke's taper talk caused long - term interest
rates to rise much
faster than the
Fed intended, one of the ways in which the central banks sought to allay market fears was to stress that it would keep short - term
rates steady until the jobless
rate had reached at least 6.5 %.
-LSB-...] • The «Misery» Index Falls to an 8 Year Low (Pragmatic Capitalism) see also
Fed's
Rate Dilemma: Job Gains vs. Low Inflation (WSJ) • Most Innovative Companies 2015 (
Fast Company) • Hedge Funds Keep Winning Despite Losing (WSJ) • Shark Tank: The lost pitches (Fortune) • How the Markets Tempt Us Into Making Mistakes (A Wealth of Common Sense)-LSB-...]
November's solid jobs report gave the
Fed a final piece of evidence, clearing the way for a December
rate hike, but now the question is how
fast can it raise
rates given weakness in some other economic data.
If long bond inflation concerns are indeed correct (which I believe they are), the
Fed will have to ratchet short term
rates at a
faster pace which may re-invert the yield curve.
That would add to my confidence on inflation in the short term, but might also spur the
Fed to raise
rates faster than the market has priced in.
The
Fed confirmed that its bond - buying stimulus program would end next month, and its new projections suggested some officials saw the risk that
rates might have to rise at a
faster pace when the bank eventually starts tightening.
Investors are likely skittish because the prospect of increased inflation may force the
Fed to raise interest
rates faster than expected.
Faster price growth would be a good thing (here's Bin Appelbaum on why), but there's a wrinkle to this dollar scenario: if the
Fed continues on its
rate - hiking, «normalization campaign,» we may not achieve that result.
Higher fiscal spending will likely ramp growth and allow the
Fed to normalize key
rates at a
faster clip.
The
Fed's hesitation to raise
rates faster is contributing to another trend that is also bullish for gold.
It usually plays out like this: The economy starts to grow
faster than expected, wages and inflation shoot up, and then the
Fed reacts by aggressively raising interest
rates.
The
Fed's 0.25 % hike in the fed funds target rate was expected, but the latest survey of individual Fed policymakers suggested that most anticipate a faster pace of fed funds rate increases in 2019 and 20
Fed's 0.25 % hike in the
fed funds target rate was expected, but the latest survey of individual Fed policymakers suggested that most anticipate a faster pace of fed funds rate increases in 2019 and 20
fed funds target
rate was expected, but the latest survey of individual
Fed policymakers suggested that most anticipate a faster pace of fed funds rate increases in 2019 and 20
Fed policymakers suggested that most anticipate a
faster pace of
fed funds rate increases in 2019 and 20
fed funds
rate increases in 2019 and 2020.
If inflation rises, The
Fed is likely to increase interest
rates faster to try and slow inflation's acceleration.
Another reason
rates have stayed low is a cautious
Fed that was reluctant to hike
rates too
fast when inflation remained low.
''... we could be going into a situation where the
Fed will have to raise
rates faster and / or sell more securities, which certainly could lead to more uncertainty and market volatility.
First, the
Fed has never pre-emptively raised interest
rates faster than inflation.
She also repeated the
Fed's message that even after the bond program ends, it will keep short - term interest
rates near zero for a long time because the bank doesn't want to remove its support too
fast.
The US dollar is higher across the board after geopolitical tensions have eased and
Fed speakers are making a case for a
faster rate hike for US interest
rates.
The recent flattening of the yield curves in the U.S. has precipitated discussion that the
FED is moving too
fast in raising
rates with the market action predicting an impending recession.
There's no shortage of factors to weigh as the
Fed stands ready to hike interest
rates faster than anticipated on worrying signs of inflation growth and the tap of foreign liquidity supporting 10 - year Treasuries could dry up as central banks in Europe and Asia curb their quantitative easing programs.
In response, both
fed funds futures and Treasury yields moved steadily higher during September and briefly advanced once more following the labor market report for the month, as investors initially zeroed in on wage growth of 2.9 %, the
fastest rate since 2009.
This should either trigger a
faster policy response, or raise concerns that the
Fed is falling behind the curve; both scenarios should result in a rise in market interest
rates.
«We do expect that mortgage
rates may also become somewhat more volatile in the year ahead, particularly as the
Fed allows its [mortgage - backed securities] portfolio to run off at a
faster rate through the course of the year.»
Despite Trump's complaints during the presidential race that the
Fed was aiding Democrats in keeping
rates ultra-low under President Barack Obama, his choices for a chairman and for other slots on the
Fed's board have been moderates rather than hard - core conservatives who would favor a
faster tightening of credit.
The veteran central banker is uneasy with that, and warns the
Fed should prepare for a
faster and more aggressive campaign of
rate hikes given the inflation risks presented by all the liquidity it has provided markets.
«The central bank does not want to make the mistakes made in the past when the
Fed raised
rates too high, too
fast and became the No. 1 cause of a recession,» said Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor at California State University, Channel Islands.
However, if the recovery in the global private - investment cycle, particularly in the U.S., proves stronger than we currently expect, it would support productivity growth, lift neutral real
rates and encourage the
Fed to take up an even
faster pace of
rate hikes than we currently pencil into our base case.
That article suggests the
Fed might increase the short - term interest
rate too
fast causing the yield curve to invert or at least to flatten much.
Rising inflation would be a catalyst to push the
Fed toward raising interest
rates at a
faster pace than currently expected.