Sentences with phrase «fat upper tail»
There are some very good — and intellectually fascinating — reasons for why the climate sensitivity distribution is asymmetric and has a fat upper tail, but they are beyond the present scope.
http://www.shapingtomorrowsworld.org/ Not exact matches
«the long fat tail that is characteristic of all recent estimates of climate sensitivity simply disappears, with an upper 95 % probability limit... easily shown to lie close to 4 °C, and certainly well below 6 °C.»
If we are going to the upper end of the fat tail, then we will not get there as a step function, but rather we will begin to trend there very eary.
There will be no step function that gets us to the upper end of the fat tail in 2100, and there will be no step function of human action in 2012 that changes the outcome in 2100.
The problem at the upper bound is what concerns Kerry Emanuel; I am arguing that the way to address this is NOT through considering a fat tail that extends out to infinity of a mythical probability distribution.
For present purposes, the most crucial aspect of the figure is its asymmetry: It has a «fat» upper tail and a fairly skinny lower tail.
Weitzman assumes a fat tail distribution, I am saying we don't know what the distribution looks like, and that we can probably bound it on the upper end (Wietzman's 20C climate sensitivity is beyond anything anyone is talking about).