If market action were to generate sufficient trend uniformity, we would be very willing to speculate on
a favorable return to market risk.
Not exact matches
Important factors that could cause actual results
to differ materially from those reflected in such forward - looking statements and that should be considered in evaluating our outlook include, but are not limited
to, the following: 1) our ability
to continue
to grow our business and execute our growth strategy, including the timing, execution, and profitability of new and maturing programs; 2) our ability
to perform our obligations under our new and maturing commercial, business aircraft, and military development programs, and the related recurring production; 3) our ability
to accurately estimate and manage performance, cost, and revenue under our contracts, including our ability
to achieve certain cost reductions with respect
to the B787 program; 4) margin pressures and the potential for additional forward losses on new and maturing programs; 5) our ability
to accommodate, and the cost of accommodating, announced increases in the build rates of certain aircraft; 6) the effect on aircraft demand and build rates of changing customer preferences for business aircraft, including the effect of global economic conditions on the business aircraft
market and expanding conflicts or political unrest in the Middle East or Asia; 7) customer cancellations or deferrals as a result of global economic uncertainty or otherwise; 8) the effect of economic conditions in the industries and
markets in which we operate in the U.S. and globally and any changes therein, including fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates; 9) the success and timely execution of key milestones such as the receipt of necessary regulatory approvals, including our ability
to obtain in a timely fashion any required regulatory or other third party approvals for the consummation of our announced acquisition of Asco, and customer adherence
to their announced schedules; 10) our ability
to successfully negotiate, or re-negotiate, future pricing under our supply agreements with Boeing and our other customers; 11) our ability
to enter into profitable supply arrangements with additional customers; 12) the ability of all parties
to satisfy their performance requirements under existing supply contracts with our two major customers, Boeing and Airbus, and other customers, and the risk of nonpayment by such customers; 13) any adverse impact on Boeing's and Airbus» production of aircraft resulting from cancellations, deferrals, or reduced orders by their customers or from labor disputes, domestic or international hostilities, or acts of terrorism; 14) any adverse impact on the demand for air travel or our operations from the outbreak of diseases or epidemic or pandemic outbreaks; 15) our ability
to avoid or recover from cyber-based or other security attacks, information technology failures, or other disruptions; 16)
returns on pension plan assets and the impact of future discount rate changes on pension obligations; 17) our ability
to borrow additional funds or refinance debt, including our ability
to obtain the debt
to finance the purchase price for our announced acquisition of Asco on
favorable terms or at all; 18) competition from commercial aerospace original equipment manufacturers and other aerostructures suppliers; 19) the effect of governmental laws, such as U.S. export control laws and U.S. and foreign anti-bribery laws such as the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and the United Kingdom Bribery Act, and environmental laws and agency regulations, both in the U.S. and abroad; 20) the effect of changes in tax law, such as the effect of The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (the «TCJA») that was enacted on December 22, 2017, and changes
to the interpretations of or guidance related thereto, and the Company's ability
to accurately calculate and estimate the effect of such changes; 21) any reduction in our credit ratings; 22) our dependence on our suppliers, as well as the cost and availability of raw materials and purchased components; 23) our ability
to recruit and retain a critical mass of highly - skilled employees and our relationships with the unions representing many of our employees; 24) spending by the U.S. and other governments on defense; 25) the possibility that our cash flows and our credit facility may not be adequate for our additional capital needs or for payment of interest on, and principal of, our indebtedness; 26) our exposure under our revolving credit facility
to higher interest payments should interest rates increase substantially; 27) the effectiveness of any interest rate hedging programs; 28) the effectiveness of our internal control over financial reporting; 29) the outcome or impact of ongoing or future litigation, claims, and regulatory actions; 30) exposure
to potential product liability and warranty claims; 31) our ability
to effectively assess, manage and integrate acquisitions that we pursue, including our ability
to successfully integrate the Asco business and generate synergies and other cost savings; 32) our ability
to consummate our announced acquisition of Asco in a timely matter while avoiding any unexpected costs, charges, expenses, adverse changes
to business relationships and other business disruptions for ourselves and Asco as a result of the acquisition; 33) our ability
to continue selling certain receivables through our supplier financing program; 34) the risks of doing business internationally, including fluctuations in foreign current exchange rates, impositions of tariffs or embargoes, compliance with foreign laws, and domestic and foreign government policies; and 35) our ability
to complete the proposed accelerated stock repurchase plan, among other things.
Actual results, including with respect
to our targets and prospects, could differ materially due
to a number of factors, including the risk that we may not obtain sufficient orders
to achieve our targeted revenues; price competition in key
markets; the risk that we or our channel partners are not able
to develop and expand customer bases and accurately anticipate demand from end customers, which can result in increased inventory and reduced orders as we experience wide fluctuations in supply and demand; the risk that our commercial Lighting Products results will continue
to suffer if new issues arise regarding issues related
to product quality for this business; the risk that we may experience production difficulties that preclude us from shipping sufficient quantities
to meet customer orders or that result in higher production costs and lower margins; our ability
to lower costs; the risk that our results will suffer if we are unable
to balance fluctuations in customer demand and capacity, including bringing on additional capacity on a timely basis
to meet customer demand; the risk that longer manufacturing lead times may cause customers
to fulfill their orders with a competitor's products instead; the risk that the economic and political uncertainty caused by the proposed tariffs by the United States on Chinese goods, and any corresponding Chinese tariffs in response, may negatively impact demand for our products; product mix; risks associated with the ramp - up of production of our new products, and our entry into new business channels different from those in which we have historically operated; the risk that customers do not maintain their
favorable perception of our brand and products, resulting in lower demand for our products; the risk that our products fail
to perform or fail
to meet customer requirements or expectations, resulting in significant additional costs, including costs associated with warranty
returns or the potential recall of our products; ongoing uncertainty in global economic conditions, infrastructure development or customer demand that could negatively affect product demand, collectability of receivables and other related matters as consumers and businesses may defer purchases or payments, or default on payments; risks resulting from the concentration of our business among few customers, including the risk that customers may reduce or cancel orders or fail
to honor purchase commitments; the risk that we are not able
to enter into acceptable contractual arrangements with the significant customers of the acquired Infineon RF Power business or otherwise not fully realize anticipated benefits of the transaction; the risk that retail customers may alter promotional pricing, increase promotion of a competitor's products over our products or reduce their inventory levels, all of which could negatively affect product demand; the risk that our investments may experience periods of significant stock price volatility causing us
to recognize fair value losses on our investment; the risk posed by managing an increasingly complex supply chain that has the ability
to supply a sufficient quantity of raw materials, subsystems and finished products with the required specifications and quality; the risk we may be required
to record a significant charge
to earnings if our goodwill or amortizable assets become impaired; risks relating
to confidential information theft or misuse, including through cyber-attacks or cyber intrusion; our ability
to complete development and commercialization of products under development, such as our pipeline of Wolfspeed products, improved LED chips, LED components, and LED lighting products risks related
to our multi-year warranty periods for LED lighting products; risks associated with acquisitions, divestitures, joint ventures or investments generally; the rapid development of new technology and competing products that may impair demand or render our products obsolete; the potential lack of customer acceptance for our products; risks associated with ongoing litigation; and other factors discussed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including our report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal year ended June 25, 2017, and subsequent reports filed with the SEC.
Coupled with its
favorable market segments, Sprouts is generating positive cash flow and
returning cash
to shareholders via a stock buyback program.
Calling the 6.6 % real
return a «chain letter» and a «Ponzi scheme,» he went on
to note, «The legitimate question that
market analysts, government forecasters and pension consultants should answer is how that 6.6 % real
return can possibly be duplicated in the future given today's initial conditions which historically have never been more
favorable for corporate profits.
My reason is that our
market allocation is proportionate to the favorable expected return / risk profile of the prevailing Market Climate, and I have no way of knowing when that Climate will
market allocation is proportionate
to the
favorable expected
return / risk profile of the prevailing
Market Climate, and I have no way of knowing when that Climate will
Market Climate, and I have no way of knowing when that Climate will shift.
A positive
Market Climate says nothing except that the average return to market risk tends to be favorable while that Climate is in e
Market Climate says nothing except that the average
return to market risk tends to be favorable while that Climate is in e
market risk tends
to be
favorable while that Climate is in effect.
Rather,
favorable trend uniformity speaks only
to speculative merit - the likelihood of positive average
market returns driven by falling risk premiums.
At the August peak (see Looking Ahead
to a Bullish Outlook, and What Will Define It), I noted that the position of the S&P 500 relative
to its 200 - day moving average is not what defines
favorable market action or our overall
market return / risk classification.
The Strategic Total
Return Fund continues
to carry a duration of just under 2 years, mostly in Treasury inflation protected securities, and about 20 % of assets in precious metals shares, for which the
Market Climate continues
to be
favorable at present.
Given the
favorable quality of
market action, it may or may not be time
to panic yet, but we do know that even while
market action is generally
favorable, we have overvalued, overbought, and overbullish conditions that have generally been associated both with poor short - term
returns (as a result of the overbought, overbullish features), and disappointing long - term
returns (as a result of overvaluation).
If a portfolio loads
market risk when the likely
return / risk profile is
favorable, and hedges
market risk when the likely
return / risk profile is unfavorable, it's possible
to achieve a very satisfactory
return / risk profile over the full
market cycle without ever making a specific short - term forecast.
[U] nderpinned by an improving labor
market, better household balance sheets,
favorable financial conditions, a healthier housing
market as household formation gradually
returns to levels that are more closely aligned with demographic factors, higher nonresidential investment as firms finally upgrade aging capital stock, and a smaller fiscal drag.
Absent typical capital
market investor concerns regarding
return horizons and financial liquidity, the Federal Government can become the «patient investor» whose long - term view of asset
returns enables the project's non-Federal financial partners
to meet their investment goals, allowing the borrower
to receive a more
favorable financing package.
Complementing traditional investments, Ross points out that real estate is less volatile (unlike stocks, it's not marked
to market every day); provides diversification with a
favorable balance of risk versus
return; is favorably taxed via capital gains tax treatment and interest deductibility; generates
returns similar
to the stock
market and «often more»; provides principal protection; a hedge against inflation and a pension - like «monthly coupon.»
However, when we're given a
market backdrop that's
favorable to a traditional style like ours, a traditional value style, and our stock - specific catalyst are being realized, the portfolio is capable of delivering significant excess
returns.
The TAVF approach is the same as that followed by private companies not seeking access
to public
markets for equities; businessmen seeking
favorable tax attributes so that they can create wealth on a tax - sheltered basis; most creditors; and all investors who seek in the management of their own portfolios
to maximize total
return, rather than just invest for interest income and dividend income.
High double digit
returns are attributable, in part,
to unusually
favorable market conditions and may not be repeated or consistently achieved in the future.
Conversely, the best time
to carry an aggressive position is when both valuations and
market action are
favorable, since the expected
return to risk has historically been quite high in this climate.Investors often have the mistaken impression that taking high risk is the key
to earning high long - term rates of
return, regardless of the
market environment.
Leverage increases both the amount you may lose and the amount you may make in a portfolio, leading
to higher
returns in the case of
favorable market movements but also larger losses under adverse
market conditions.
In the Strategic Total
Return Fund, we continue
to carry an unusually defensive position, largely in Treasury bills, and with the
Market Climate for precious metals still favorable on our measures, we bumped up slightly to a roughly 17 % exposure in precious metals shares on last week's swoon in that m
Market Climate for precious metals still
favorable on our measures, we bumped up slightly
to a roughly 17 % exposure in precious metals shares on last week's swoon in that
marketmarket.
When the estimated
market return / risk profile is strongly
favorable, the Fund has the ability
to leverage the amount of stock it controls
to as much as 150 % of the value of the Fund's net assets, typically by investing a limited percentage of assets in long call options.
I take the time
to learn the unique needs of my clients and develop customized integrated
marketing solutions designed
to provide a
favorable return on investment.
The rent -
to - value ratio is extremely
favorable and produces one of the highest
returns of any good
market.
Some popular investments have been apartment and industrial properties due
to favorable returns and
market stability, he adds.
Competition for distressed resale homes is likely
to get more challenging for buyers, with Phoenix making national headlines recently as one of the best
markets in the country
to purchase investment property and enjoy
favorable returns.