«Thus it appears that the Pinatubo cooling
favours high climate sensitivity,» say Hansen and his colleagues in a study for a forthcoming issue of the journal National Geographic Research and Exploration.
Not exact matches
Forest et al. (2006) demonstrate that the inclusion of natural forcing affects the estimated PDF of
climate sensitivity since net negative natural forcing in the second half of the 20th century
favours higher sensitivities than earlier results that disregarded natural forcing (Forest et al., 2002; see Figure 9.20), particularly if the same ocean warming estimates were used.
The orange line in Fig. 3 shows how strongly the IPCC's
favoured use of a uniform prior in
sensitivity dominates a not very informative likelihood function, giving the appearance of a
high probability of a very
high climate sensitivity that is very largely a reflection of the prior distribution used.
That's all I was saying and of course policy makers and
climate activists have generally ignored more recent lower estimates in
favour of adopting a precautionary principle which encompasses the
higher end of the IPCC
climate sensitivity range.
It is, however, a measure of their fundamental lack of seriousness that when there really are important uncertainties (i.e. the likelihood that
climate sensitivity is
higher than generally thought), they ignore them in
favour of making the same repetitive uninteresting and incorrect claims they always make.