From a policy standpoint, the research brief's authors believe slowly raising interest rates could continue to
feed the stock market's exuberance.
Not exact matches
Bond prices were higher,
stocks waffled and the dollar flip - flopped after the
Fed's post-meeting statement failed to deliver the clarity
markets were looking for on the course of rate hikes.
HONG KONG — World
stock markets were mixed on Thursday as investors analyzed the
Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged and kept an eye out for developments from China - U.S. trade talks in Beijing.
There is little if any downside, especially when directors can ride a
stock market or
Fed driven increase in overall share prices.
In an interview with Business Insider, Pinto said the
Fed's actions and the resulting impact on
markets could send
stocks plunging 30 % to 40 % in the next couple of years.
But if someone like [
Fed governor Jerome] Powell gets in, with policies similar to [current
Fed chair Janet] Yellen's, that would appease the
stock market and create a better environment for them going forward.
On the other hand, if the
Fed decides to delay raising rates, as the
stock market is clearly hoping for, then it will give U.S. investors a chance to assess China's moves to solve its economic problems over the next few months, and respond accordingly later on.
If the
Fed is indeed putting off raising short - term interest rates — perhaps because of an economic slowdown overseas, economic turmoil in Russia, or because of lower oil prices — then that's potentially good news for the
stock market.
Markets set a positive stage for the Fed's potentially historic turn as U.S. stock futures rose ahead of the market open on Wednesday and bond markets and the dollar were
Markets set a positive stage for the
Fed's potentially historic turn as U.S.
stock futures rose ahead of the
market open on Wednesday and bond
markets and the dollar were
markets and the dollar were steady.
But here's the problem:
Stock market investors may have misinterpreted the
Fed.
By offering clearer guidance on the direction of interest rates, the
Fed could help to stabilize the volatile
stock market.
That does have the benefit of propping up the U.S.
stock market in the near future and enabling the
Fed to navigate a soft landing for the U.S. taking into account rapidly changing global conditions.
When asked whether the recent correction in the
stock market might change the
Fed's path to normalization, William Dudley, president of the New York
Fed, said the fall was «small potatoes.»
«They're all
fed up with the volatility of the
stock market.
---------------------------------------------------------- Read more from Mad Money with Jim Cramer Cramer Remix:
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Market trends?
An existential crisis in social media
stocks, confusion over how to discount a trade war and conflicting interpretations of the
Fed's latest move are weighing on the
market.
But a change atop the U.S. central bank still adds to the uncertainty in the
market, and the pullback could test whether Powell's leadership will provide a «put» that supports
stock prices as had been the expectation for investors under past
Fed chairs.
«When the
stock market goes up like it has, it makes people feel better, which
feeds demand for little luxuries like dining out,» says Plunkett.
Rosenberg said the latest run - up in
stocks may be due to a
market that believes the new
Fed, with Powell at the helm, won't be in a hurry to raise rates.
The recent sell - off in the
stock markets is a «healthy» correction from high valuations, Dallas
Fed President Robert Kaplan said in Frankfurt on Wednesday.
«If the
Fed loses credibility,» the Argonaut Capital Management president warned in a «Squawk Box» interview, «you'd be in for a good correction on the
stock market.
Say the
Fed hikes interest rates, or the
stock market plummets.
In some other past calls, Tepper told «Squawk Box» In May 2013 that the
Fed had to taper its bond - buying to keep the
stock market advance on an even keel.
What happens to the
stock market when the
Fed raises interest rates?
The Play: After a private meeting with
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary John Paulson on the impending financial crisis on September 16, 2008, Bachus — then the Ranking Member on the House Financial Services Committee — bet against the
stock market, netting himself tens of thousands of dollars.
Cramer also says that the
stock market isn't driven by earnings or the
Fed, but by another key factor.
At a time when
Fed Chair Alan Greenspan was being held as the leader of a «committee to save the world «-- as the famous Time magazine cover read — she advised him to raise interest rates and keep an eye on the booming
stock market.
The
Fed is set to raise interest rates — a move that may undermine the rising
stock market.
Perhaps the
market could even live with somewhat slower growth if it weren't for two other inconvenient facts: The Federal Reserve (
Fed) is unlikely to bail out
stocks anywhere close to current levels and
stocks are expensive.
The
market was spooked last month when potential signs of inflation strengthened, raising speculation that the
Fed may speed up its timetable and knocking
stock prices down by 10 per cent around the world.
«The current bull
market is not going to end simply because «
stocks have gone up too much»... The buyside is fairly cautious, seeing downside stemming from: (i) deflationary pressures of the 40 % year - over-year oil decline, deceleration in China, Eurozone weakness, and the fall in 5 - year inflation breakevens; and (ii)
Fed monetary tightening... Capital
stock is again showing signs of pent - up demand, and as a consequence, companies and households will have to invest.
SARA EISEN: You're one of the few people that admits that the
Fed was trying to engineer a
stock market rally.
Right now with earnings growth very strong and the bond
market already reflecting a fair amount of
Fed tightening (pricing in 5 rate hikes over the coming 2 years), my sense is that the
stock market is in OK shape to withstand some tightening of financial conditions and not unravel in the process.
One reason
stocks continue to head higher may be the
market's faith in a
Fed «put,» or the expectation that any significant correction in the
stock market will cause the
Fed to delay rate hikes and balance - sheet contraction.
Asian
stock markets were mostly lower Thursday as investors analyzed the
Fed's decision to stand pat on interest rates.
STEVE LIESMAN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The latest CNBC
Fed survey finds expectations for interest rates and inflation both rising, while the outlook for the
stock market has been reduced yet again.
As long as the
market expects the
Fed to cut, the pressure on the
stock market will be mitigated by an outlook for some relief from present interest rate policy.
In recent weeks,
stocks have swung between ups and downs, as investors have attempted to digest the latest news out of Greece, the recent bear
market in China and the growing likelihood that the Federal Reserve (
Fed) will hold off on raising rates until after its September meeting.
The tax cuts should help although the
Fed is counteracting that growth with a questionable raising of interest rates which seems to have sparked the sudden
stock market volatility.
Former
Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said, «Unlike previous financial crises, the 1987
stock market decline was not associated with a deposit run or any other problem in the banking sector» (Kohn 2006).
The question before the house: Will the
Fed continue to raise interest rates if the
stock market continues to slide?
What we have really seen over the past several years, in terms of the appreciation of
markets and the decline of interest rates based on what the
Fed has been doing, is a result which has eliminated the possibility of investors in bonds and
stocks to earn an adequate return relative to their expected liabilities.
Last cycle, the
stock market didn't peak until 16 months after the
Fed finished raising rates.
I suspect the Yellen
Fed (correctly) has a much higher tolerance for
stock market losses than Bernanke, and that interventions in the case of
market losses and economic weakness will take a different form than quantitative easing.
Finally, the
Fed's easy - money policies have pushed investors into the
stock market because bond yields are so low.
As I discussed earlier this year, in the
Market Perspectives paper No Exit: Can the
Fed Normalize Rates - And How Will It Impact
Stocks?
Given at least some evidence of softening in the job
market in tandem with slower core price growth, a data - driven
Fed should pause and take
stock of where we are.
According to Bespoke, the
stock market has had a mostly quiet reaction to the
Fed minutes after the 13 releases since the beginning of 2014.
[01:10] Introduction [02:45] James welcomes Tony to the podcast [03:35] Tony's leap year birthday [04:15] Unshakeable delivers the specific facts you need to know [04:45] What James learned from Unshakeable [05:25] Most people panic when the
stock market drops [05:45] Getting rid of your fear of investing [06:15] Last January was the worst opening, but it was a correction [06:45] You are losing money when you sell on corrections [06:55] Bear
markets come every 5 years on average [07:10] The greatest opportunity for a millennial [07:40] Waiting for corrections to invest [08:05] Warren Buffet's advice for investors [08:55] If you miss the top 10 trading days a year... [09:25] Three different investor scenarios over a 20 year period [10:40] The best trading days come after the worst [11:45] Investing in the current world [12:05] What Clinton and Bush think of the current situation [12:45] The office is far bigger than the occupant [13:35] Information helps reduce fear [14:25] James's story of the billionaire upset over another's wealth [14:45] What money really is [15:05] The story of Adolphe Merkle [16:05] The story of Chuck Feeney [16:55] The importance of the right mindset [17:15] What fuels Tony [19:15] Find something you care about more than yourself [20:25] Make your mission to surround yourself with the right people [21:25] Suffering made Tony hungry for more [23:25] By
feeding his mind, Tony found strength [24:15] Great ideas don't interrupt you, you have to pursue them [25:05] Never - ending hunger is what matters [25:25] Richard Branson is the epitome of hunger and drive [25:40] Hunger is the common denominator [26:30] What you can do starting right now [26:55] Success leaves clues [28:10] What it means to take massive action [28:30] Taking action commits you to following through [29:40] If you do nothing you'll learn nothing [30:20] There must be an emotional purpose behind what you're doing [30:40] How does Tony ignite creativity in his own life [32:00] «How is not as important as «why» [32:40] What and why unleash the psyche [33:25] Breaking the habit of focusing on «how» [35:50] Deep Practice [35:10] Your desired outcome will determine your action [36:00] The difference between «what» and «why» [37:00] Learning how to chunk and group [37:40] Don't mistake movement for achievement [38:30] Tony doesn't negotiate with his mind [39:30] Change your thoughts and change your biochemistry [40:00] The bad habit of being stressed [40:40] Beautiful and suffering states [41:50] The most important decision is to live in a beautiful state no matter what [42:40] Consciously decide to take yourself out of suffering [43:40] Focus on appreciation, joy and love [44:30] Step out of suffering and find the solution [45:00] Dealing with mercury poisoning [45:40] Tony's process for stepping out of suffering [46:10] Stop identifying with thoughts — they aren't yours [47:40] Trade your expectations for appreciation [50:00] The key to life — gratitude [51:40] What is freedom for you?
I'm sure they have had to go to the
stock market to get the needed returns for payouts since the
FED has decided savers are useless.