My hypothesis continues to be that the
post feedback climate sensitivity to CO2 number, expressed as degrees C per doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, is greater than zero and less than one.
This empirical fast -
feedback climate sensitivity allows water vapor, clouds, aerosols, sea ice, and all other fast feedbacks that exist in the real world to respond naturally to global climate change.
The average fast -
feedback climate sensitivity over the LGM — Holocene range of climate states can be assessed by comparing estimated global temperature change and climate forcing change between those two climate states [3,86].
If climate scientists want to determine a no -
feedbacks climate sensitivity from changes in radiative forcing, the result should be as relevant as possible to surface temperature change.
Therefore, albedo changes associated with sea ice are included in the
fast feedback climate sensitivity, whereas albedo changes associated with ice sheets are only included in longer - term climate sensitivity estimates (which is termed «Earth System Sensitivity»).
One issue that I have wondered about for some time is to what extent the paleoclimate record supports the distinction between slow - feedback and fast -
feedback climate sensitivity.
Hansen et al. 2013 (a) CO2 amount required to yield a global temperature, if fast -
feedback climate sensitivity is 0.75 °C per W m − 2 and non-CO2 GHGs contribute 25 % of the GHG forcing.
The fast -
feedback climate sensitivity is a reasonably smooth curve, because the principal fast - feedback mechanisms (water vapor, clouds, aerosols, sea ice) do not have sharp threshold changes.
Figure 1: Schematic diagram of the equilibrium fast -
feedback climate sensitivity and Earth system sensitivity that includes surface albedo slow feedbacks.
GHG and surface albedo changes, which we treated as specified climate forcings in evaluating fast -
feedback climate sensitivity, are actually slow climate feedbacks during orbit - instigated Pleistocene glacial — interglacial climate swings.
Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast -
feedback climate sensitivity of 3 ± 1 °C for a 4 W m − 2 CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene.
(a) CO2 amount required to yield the global temperature history of figure 4a if fast -
feedback climate sensitivity is that calculated with the Russell model, i.e. the sensitivity shown in figure 7b, and two - thirds of that sensitivity.
I am just wondering if lolwot is willing to discuss, in a quiet and scientific way, the dubious physics behind the claims of no -
feedback climate sensitivity and subsequent feedbacks.