Not exact matches
I'm not even an amateur climate scientist, but my logic
tells me that if clouds have a stronger negative
feedback in the Arctic, and I know (from news) the Arctic is warming faster than other areas, then it seems «forcing GHGs» (CO2, etc) may have a strong
sensitivity than suggested, but this is suppressed by the cloud effect.
Beckage
tells us that the uncertainty from human
feedback comes close to the uncertainty scientists still have in the physical systems (things like permafrost melt, climate
sensitivity, and all that).
Thus if this
tells us that
sensitivity is near 3 degrees, and that is close to the model estimates, we can have some confidence that we have captured the main
feedbacks.
CO2 is a greenhouse gas and physics
tells us that the minimum
sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 with water vapor
feedback is 2 degrees celsius.
... Energy budget is really worrisome; we should have had 20 years of ERBE [Earth Radiation Budget Experiment] type data by now - this would have
told us about cloud
feedback and climate
sensitivity.
As you say, we have all been sold a pup because the IPCC can not admit to what the data collected these past 40 years is clearly
telling us, namely that there can not be strong positive
feedbacks, the assumptions underpinning that assumption must be wrong, and that Climate
Sensitivity can at the very most exceed the no
feedback scenario by just a smidgen.
One empirical analysis of the type of F+G 06 does not
tell that the climate
feedback parameter Y is 2.3 ± 1.4 W m ^ -2 K ^ -1 with 95 % certaintyor that the equilibrium climate
sensitivity is in the corresponding range 1.0 — 4.1 K. Those limits are obtained only, when the additional assumption of uniform prior in Y is made.
The change in effective radiative temperature is obtained by Stefan - Boltzmann law from the radiative forcing and it's
telling the order of magnitude of related warming as well as the «no -
feedback sensitivity» does.
Self - similarity might then
tell you to divide the calculated temperature based on the fast
feedback sensitivity by about 2 as one would now.