Not exact matches
The relative
contributions of the various
feedbacks that make up climate sensitivity need not be the same going back to the LGM as in a world
warming relative to the pre-industrial climate.
Since OHC uptake efficiency associated with surface
warming is low compared with the rate of radiative restoring (increase in energy loss to space as specified by the climate
feedback parameter), an important internal
contribution must lead to a loss rather than a gain of ocean heat; thus the observation of OHC increase requires a dominant role for external forcing.
Now, perhaps you can explain to us how you get 33 degrees of greenhouse
warming over blackbody temperatures without significant
contributions from positive
feedback.
Warming must occur below the tropopause to increase the net LW flux out of the tropopause to balance the tropopause - level forcing; there is some feedback at that point as the stratosphere is «forced» by the fraction of that increase which it absorbs, and a fraction of that is transfered back to the tropopause level — for an optically thick stratosphere that could be significant, but I think it may be minor for the Earth as it is (while CO2 optical thickness of the stratosphere alone is large near the center of the band, most of the wavelengths in which the stratosphere is not transparent have a more moderate optical thickness on the order of 1 (mainly from stratospheric water vapor; stratospheric ozone makes a contribution over a narrow wavelength band, reaching somewhat larger optical thickness than stratospheric water vapor)(in the limit of an optically thin stratosphere at most wavelengths where the stratosphere is not transparent, changes in the net flux out of the stratosphere caused by stratospheric warming or cooling will tend to be evenly split between upward at TOA and downward at the tropopause; with greater optically thickness over a larger fraction of optically - significant wavelengths, the distribution of warming or cooling within the stratosphere will affect how such a change is distributed, and it would even be possible for stratospheric adjustment to have opposite effects on the downward flux at the tropopause and the upward flux a
Warming must occur below the tropopause to increase the net LW flux out of the tropopause to balance the tropopause - level forcing; there is some
feedback at that point as the stratosphere is «forced» by the fraction of that increase which it absorbs, and a fraction of that is transfered back to the tropopause level — for an optically thick stratosphere that could be significant, but I think it may be minor for the Earth as it is (while CO2 optical thickness of the stratosphere alone is large near the center of the band, most of the wavelengths in which the stratosphere is not transparent have a more moderate optical thickness on the order of 1 (mainly from stratospheric water vapor; stratospheric ozone makes a
contribution over a narrow wavelength band, reaching somewhat larger optical thickness than stratospheric water vapor)(in the limit of an optically thin stratosphere at most wavelengths where the stratosphere is not transparent, changes in the net flux out of the stratosphere caused by stratospheric
warming or cooling will tend to be evenly split between upward at TOA and downward at the tropopause; with greater optically thickness over a larger fraction of optically - significant wavelengths, the distribution of warming or cooling within the stratosphere will affect how such a change is distributed, and it would even be possible for stratospheric adjustment to have opposite effects on the downward flux at the tropopause and the upward flux a
warming or cooling will tend to be evenly split between upward at TOA and downward at the tropopause; with greater optically thickness over a larger fraction of optically - significant wavelengths, the distribution of
warming or cooling within the stratosphere will affect how such a change is distributed, and it would even be possible for stratospheric adjustment to have opposite effects on the downward flux at the tropopause and the upward flux a
warming or cooling within the stratosphere will affect how such a change is distributed, and it would even be possible for stratospheric adjustment to have opposite effects on the downward flux at the tropopause and the upward flux at TOA).
Given that the published track records of some of these
feedbacks show a very significant potential
contribution to
warming in the next 50 years, the DDP assertion of having a 66 % chance of staying under 2.0 C by continuing anthro -
warming for 135 years looks to me like sheer wishful thinking.
Significant
contribution to climate
warming from the permafrost carbon
feedback.
MacDougall, A. H., C. A. Avis, and A. J. Weaver, 2012: Significant
contribution to climate
warming from the permafrost carbon
feedback.
This argument — «The limit on a late 20th century surface
warming contribution from internal variability can be calculated from OHC data, total temperature change, and the climate
feedback parameter.
There is yet little confidence in this
feedback component of climate models and therefore its possible
contribution to global
warming (see Chapter 8).
Under such a response, for uniform
warming, the largest fractional change in water vapour, and thus the largest
contribution to the
feedback, occurs in the upper troposphere.
Indeed Tim if you want to go to catchment modification theories — well tree clearing for agriculture and grazing ought be giving us more runoff in one respect but perhaps changes in land surface
feedbacks from land development may have also made a
contribution to a
warmer drier climate as this preliminary research shows.