Not exact matches
Climate projections need to account for
enhanced warming due to global
warming feedbacks as discussed by James Zachos, professor of Earth sciences at the University of California, Santa Cruz at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in St. Louis in Feb, 2006.
The silicate + CO2 - > different silicate + carbonate chemical weathering rate tends to increase with temperature globally, and so is a negative
feedback (but is too slow to damp out short term changes)-- but chemical weathering is also affected by vegetation, land area, and terrain (and minerology, though I'm not sure how much that varies among entire mountain ranges or climate zones)-- ie mountanous regions which are in the vicinity of a
warm rainy climate are ideal for
enhancing chemical weathering (see Appalachians in the Paleozoic, more recently the Himalayas).
This chemical weathering process is too slow to damp out shorter - term fluctuations, and there are some complexities — glaciation can
enhance the mechanical erosion that provides surface area for chemical weathering (some of which may be realized after a time delay — ie when the subsequent
warming occurs — dramatically snow in a Snowball Earth scenario, where the frigid conditions essentially shut down all chemical weathering, allowing CO2 to build up to the point where it thaws the equatorial region, at which point runaway albedo
feedback drives the Earth into a carbonic acid sauna, which ends via rapid carbonate rock formation), while lower sea level may increase the oxidation of organic C in sediments but also provide more land surface for erosion... etc..
(I wonder if such
enhanced wind driven mising would in effect be a negative
feedback on
warming rates, enhaning ocean thermal damping.)
Climate projections need to account for
enhanced warming due to global
warming feedbacks as discussed by James Zachos, professor of Earth sciences at the University of California, Santa Cruz at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in St. Louis in Feb, 2006.
If the
enhanced atmospheric
warming from a CO2 - induced temperature rise of 1 oC results in
enhanced water vapour that gives an additional
warming of say x oC, the overall
warming (doubled CO2 + water vapour
feedback; leaving out other
feedbacks for now) will be something like 1.1 * (1 + x + x2 + x3...) or 1.1 / (1 - x)-RSB-.
What I'm trying to get at is some simplistic estimate of the water vapour
feedback that results from an
enhanced CO2 - induced
warming of say 1.1 oC from the CO2 RF of around 4 Wm - 2.
A
warming climate and
enhanced winter snow are likely to exacerbate positive
feedbacks between climate and permafrost thawing....
The same
feedback mechanisms that are proposed to
enhance the CO2
warming are also applicable to solar forcing, including
warming induced increases in methane release.
Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that
enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any
warming (aside from greenhouse
feedbacks) and more so with a
warming due to an increase in the greenhouse effect (including
feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the albedo
feedback was key (while sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be
warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the albedo
feedback, and this is released in the cold part of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
This is what I get out of it: the Arctic - ice - albedo situation is more complicated than earlier thought (due to clouds, sun - filled summers, dark winters, etc), but NET EFFECT, the ice loss and all these other related factors (some negative
feedbacks) act as a positive
feedback and
enhance global
warming.
So, the positive
feedback between melt and velocities implies that more melt leads to higher velocities, which bring in more ice from cold regions to
warm regions which increases the melt and hence the velocity etc, with as a final result a rapid loss of ice and hence an
enhanced increased sea level.
Climate Myth: Climate sensitivity is low «His [Dr Spencer's] latest research demonstrates that — in the short term, at any rate — the temperature
feedbacks that the IPCC imagines will greatly amplify any initial
warming caused by CO2 are net - negative, attenuating the
warming they are supposed to
enhance.
The water vapor, lapse - rate and ice - albedo
feedbacks in isolation
enhance the global
warming that would result from increasing CO2 concentrations alone to around +2.2 °C.
Climate models suggest that water vapour and snow cover, at least, are «positive
feedbacks» and so should
enhance the
warming.
Warming phases were
enhanced by carbon dioxide
feedback loops.
In addition to direct MYI melt due to high - latitude
warming, the impact of
enhanced upper - ocean solar heating through numerous leads in decaying Arctic ice cover and consequent ice bottom melting has resulted in an accelerated rate of sea - ice retreat via a positive ice - albedo
feedback mechanism.
They incorporate a wide range of additional
feedbacks, some of which
enhance and some of which reduce future emissions and resulting
warming.
(While the data did suggest strong positive water vapor
feedback, which
enhances warming, that was far exceeded by the cooling effect of negative
feedback from cloud changes.)»
In particular, she worries that climate models «involve a lot of theory and guesswork» about amplifying
feedbacks that
enhance the uncontested
warming effect of CO2, which places her in the company of lukewarmists.
Since, obviously, CO2 is a greenhouse gas, we must conclude that the CO2
warming feedbacks are negating rather than
enhancing the original CO2
warming.
Observations and model simulations suggest that even though global
warming is set into motion by greenhouse gases that reduce OLR, it is ultimately sustained by the climate
feedbacks that
enhance ASR.»
That temp rise then causes something to outgas CO2 (possibly oceans, but maybe not) that then raises the temp even more (along with other GHG that
feedback and
enhance the
warming), which causes more outgasing.
[The paper was] the first proper computation of global
warming and stratospheric cooling from
enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations, including atmospheric emission and water - vapour
feedback.
«Stratospheric water vapor has a positive climate
feedback effect: a
warming climate increases stratospheric water vapor, and the increased stratospheric water vapor
enhances surface
warming.
In summer more sea ice melts, which leads to decreased albedo, a climate
feedback that
enhances the
warming of both the open ocean water and the atmosphere directly above it.
TCADI simulations show
enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO2, aerosol effects, and greater methane
feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions.
Emissions that, according to «global
warming theory», are meant to effect the poles greater than mid latitude regions due to the lack of humidity
enhancing the theorised CO2
feedback.
And these
feedbacks are not properly described by models, because we don't understand how they work... Are they positive
feedbacks that
enhance the
warming, or are they negative
feedbacks that diminish the
warming?
This north / south asymmetry has grown since perihelion was aligned with the winter solstice seven to eight centuries ago, and must cause
enhanced year - on - year springtime melting of Arctic (but not Antarctic) ice and therefore
feedback warming because increasing amounts of land and open sea are denuded of high - albedo ice and snow across boreal summer and into autumn.
In the idealised situation that the climate response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 consisted of a uniform temperature change only, with no
feedbacks operating (but allowing for the
enhanced radiative cooling resulting from the temperature increase), the global
warming from GCMs would be around 1.2 °C (Hansen et al., 1984; Bony et al., 2006).
In the papers, I was unable to find a single instance where any of the
feedbacks thought to
enhance warming in specific locations were associated solely with CO2.
The change appears to be driven largely by
feedback -
enhanced global climate
warming, and there seem to be few, if any, processes or
feedbacks within the Arctic system that are capable of altering the trajectory toward this «super interglacial» state.»
Matt Skaggs writes: «I have seen two spatial pattern claims about GHG
warming, 1) the troposphere should
warm more quickly, and 2) the poles should
warm more quickly... I was unable to find a single instance where any of the
feedbacks thought to
enhance warming in specific locations were associated solely with CO2... I can not make the dots connect.»
Authors conclude from this and other evidence from process models that
warmer climates may
enhance tropical forest release of CO2, thus accelerating atmospheric CO2 accumulation through a positive
feedback.
Where water vapor is important is as a
feedback effect... whereby the
warming of the atmosphere due to increased CO2 causes the «equilibrium» concentration of water vapor to increase and this then
enhances the
warming because of water vapor's absorption of infrared radiation.
Raper et al. (2001b) show that an additional ocean -
feedback is possibly associated with the
warming and freshening of the high latitude surface waters that
enhances this relationship.
Given the role of
warming in albedo change and the projections of increased
warming and
enhanced melting, future changes in the GrIS albedo will likely result largely from
warming and associated
feedbacks.