Not this time, the big threat is deflation, hence
the Fed rate at zero, so if bonds are rising, yields are dropping, the bond market is expecting deflation.
Not exact matches
The
Fed expressed a confident economic outlook, saying activity had expanded
at a moderate
rate and that inflation was close to its 2 percent target.
So - called «dollar - sphere» markets have monetary policy that is
at least partly outsourced to the
Fed, and by extension are vulnerable to
rate hikes.
«Strong economic momentum and accelerating price and wage gains should lead to three more
Fed rate hikes this year,» Kathy Bostjancic, head of U.S. macro investor services
at Oxford Economics USA, wrote in response to the survey.
However, in the case of the USA the
Fed would have to pay about 4.5 % on excess reserves in order to offset the 2.3 %
rate it earns on its balance sheet
at present.
The
Fed is next expected to raise
rates in June, and
at that time it will release new forecasts for the economy and interest
rates.
«It was a close call,» John Williams, president of the San Francisco
Fed, said on the weekend, referring to the
Fed's contentious decision to leave the benchmark
rate at zero last week.
The
Fed has «an economy above its potential growth
rate and it's been running
at its potential growth
rate from some time,» he added.
If you invest
at all in stocks and bonds, even if you just have a 401 (k), this
Fed rate hike will be important to you and your portfolio.
«That debate is going to be ongoing,» said Michael Schumacher, director of
rate strategy
at Wells Fargo, after the
Fed statement was released.
The interbank
rate has been
at its lowest level, near zero percent, for the longest period in the history of the
Fed.
If the economy slows because of anticipated or real higher interest
rates, we won't see unemployment moving under 7 %, and then the
Fed is likely to reconsider and not «taper»
at all!
However, looking
at DHS data on the arrest
rate of illegal entrants
at the Mexican border, Federico S. Mandelman, a research economist and associate policy adviser
at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, and Andrei Zlate, a senior financial economist in the Boston
Fed's Risk and Policy Analysis Unit, found the numbers have been plummeting.
Traders are still pricing in two
rate hikes this year, based on the price of
Fed funds futures contracts traded
at CME Group (cme) Chicago Board of Trade.
European bourses closed higher on Wednesday after
Fed Chair Janet Yellen hinted
at a possible
rate hike next month.
The
Fed's latest round of bond buying and its plan to keep
rates super-low into 2015 will likely provide only modest help, said David Jones, chief economist
at DMJ Advisors.
But
at that point, the
Fed chair Janet Yellen and the other members of the interest
rate - setting committee seemed to side with the idea that Trump's policies would do more to help the economy than hurt it.
On Wednesday, the
Fed said that it was keeping the short - term interest
rate it controls unchanged
at 0.25 %.
The dollar / yen is likely to fall unless there are clearer signs of a
rate hike by the
Fed,» said Shinichiro Kadota, senior FX and
rates strategist
at Barclays Securities Japan.
The divergence in policy between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada is happening: the
Fed likely will raise interest
rates at least a few times in 2017, while the Canadian central bank likely will do nothing
at all.
«The
Fed is seriously considering a December
rate hike,» Harm Bandholz, an economist
at UniCredit in New York, told Reuters.
If the economy were to slow, and the interest
rates were still
at zero, the
Fed wouldn't have its main tool to stimulate the economy.
The
Fed lifted
rates from near zero last December — the first
rate hike in nearly a decade — but has since stood pat given an economic slump
at home and volatile markets overseas.
The
Fed raised interest
rates last December for the first time in nearly a decade, and
at that time projected four more hikes in 2016.
The notes from the meeting show that a number of
Fed officials feel that interest
rates could begin to be raised from their current artificially low levels sooner than the current target of sometime in 2015 should certain economic factors continue to improve
at a rapid pace.
«I think [the stock] reaction to his comments about slightly strong growth and that the
Fed was more likely to raise
rates more in 2018 than investors had anticipated,» said Kate Warne, investment strategist
at Edward Jones.
For all the talk of abnormal times and changes in underlying economic fundamentals, the
Fed is pinning its hopes on a very conventional premise — that the U.S. consumer will keep spending
at recent strong
rates, encouraged by low unemployment and the apparent beginnings of higher wages.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday released minutes from its meeting
at the end of July, and it looks like
Fed officials broached the subject of raising interest
rates earlier than planned, but ultimately decided to wait for more evidence of an improved economic outlook.
In a recent speech to the Providence Chamber of Commerce,
Fed Chair Janet Yellen said, «I think it will be appropriate
at some point this year to take the initial step to raise the federal - funds
rate target and begin the process of normalizing monetary policy.»
«It is a foregone conclusion that the
Fed is going to raise
rates,» said Kully Samra, a managing director
at U.S. focused investment manager Charles Schwab in London.
That debate takes place internally
at the central bank, where contrasting views are regularly articulated by members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as our Federal Reserve (
Fed) policymakers attempt to steer monetary policy with regard to interest
rates.
«The
Fed may raise
rates at a faster pace than the economy can withstand,» Stifel Nicolaus» chief economist told CNBC's «On the Money.»
A decision will be released
at 2 p.m. (1900 GMT), with markets prepared for an initial 25 basis point «liftoff» that would move the
Fed's target
rate from the zero lower bound to a range of between 0.25 and 0.50 percentage points.
This is a market - led
rate increase, not
Fed led, says Mariann Montagne, senior investment analyst
at Gradient Investments.
Weighed against unemployment, which has dropped to a 16 - year low
at 4.1 percent, that weakness has puzzled economists and made some policy makers declare the
Fed should hold off on additional
rate increases until prices respond more briskly.
Williams, who will leave his current job as San Francisco
Fed president in June to take over
at the New York
Fed, also said he expects the
Fed's shrinking balance sheet will help steepen the curve by putting upward pressure on longer - term
rates.
Last year, Japan implemented a
feed - in tariff, which promises solar producers a subsidized price,
at twice the going
rate in Germany and France.
Given the low unemployment
rate, anecdotal evidence from a variety of companies, and alternative measures such as the Atlanta
Fed wage tracker showing stronger growth, wage growth may not be back
at precrisis levels, but the trend over the past year shows wages are certainly headed in the right direction.
The 2.9 % rise in December average hourly earnings «might put a little bit more pressure on the
Fed to accelerate the path [of interest
rate hikes], but I really don't think it's going to be that significant a push,» said Dan North, chief economist
at Euler Hermes North America.
Yes, the
Fed has a target
rate at which it thinks banks should lend overnight to each other.
This would leave the
fed funds
rate peaking
at 2.5 - 2.75 % next year.»
In his job as an activist
at the Center for Popular Democracy, Barkan led a successful effort to get
Fed officials thinking more about low - income Americans as they conduct monetary policy, often arguing against interest
rate hikes in the face of high underemployment and weak wage growth.
Markets anticipate
at least two more interest
rate hikes this year after an increase in March, according to CME Group
fed funds futures.
But since then the
Fed has done little beyond generate a strong sense of déjà vu:
At press time,
Fed policymakers were strongly hinting they would implement another December
rate hike.
As the tax plan advanced in Congress, forecasting shops
at Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and others penciled in a faster pace of
Fed rate increases — essentially expecting the
Fed would need to lean against the inflationary outcome.
«If the
Fed gets its paradigm wrong and sees inflation that ultimately doesn't materialize, and they take
rates too far, then markets would feel aggrieved,» said Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist
at Northern Trust in Chicago, and a former senior risk official
at the
Fed Board.
The inflation
rate was last reported
at 0.9 percent, still far below the
Fed's 2 percent annual target.
Still, ETF buyers are willing to take a shot
at the market, believing that in addition to the
Fed staying dovish with
rates the default level will remain low.
The
Fed is likely to announce
at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) that it is holding interest
rates steady, but it could encourage expectations of a
rate increase in June.
The
Fed ended its latest policy meeting by leaving its key short - term
rate unchanged
at 1.5 percent to 1.75 percent, the level it set in March after its sixth
rate increase...