I needed
a few bull and bear market cycles to really wrap my head around the fact that I don't know anything at all.
Not exact matches
The favorable
market performance associated with many historical economic expansions is fully accounted for by 1) favorable post-recession valuations, with the S&P 500 averaging less than 9 times prior peak earnings at the recession low, expanding to just over 11 times peak earnings in the first year of the
bull market,
and 2) favorable trend uniformity, which typically emerges almost immediately in the form of a powerful breadth thrust off of a
bear market low,
and is confirmed within a
few weeks by much broader trend uniformity.
The chart below captures a fairly simple filter of instances when the
market lost 5 % or more over a 2 - week period, from a
market peak in the prior 6 weeks (within 5 % of the prior 52 - week high) that was characterized by a Shiller P / E over 19, more than 50 % advisory
bulls,
and fewer than 25 % advisory
bears.
The
Bulls vs. Bears Death Match Intensifies A few weeks ago, I wrote an article describing the current state of the market as a death match between two camps — the bulls and the b
Bulls vs.
Bears Death Match Intensifies A
few weeks ago, I wrote an article describing the current state of the
market as a death match between two camps — the
bulls and the b
bulls and the
bears.
The chart below captures a fairly simple filter of instances when the
market lost 5 % or more over a 2 - week period, from a
market peak in the prior 6 weeks (within 5 % of the prior 52 - week high) that was characterized by a Shiller P / E over 19, more than 50 % advisory
bulls,
and fewer than 25 % advisory
bears.
The cost averaging principle allows investors to buy more units in
bear markets and fewer units in
bull markets.
We investors have been doing well the past
few years as the economy
and stock
market recovered from the Great Recession, When in a
bull market, the probability of making mistakes becomes lower than when one is in a volatile or
bear market.