The macro environment could potentially change in a way that
financial modeling failed to predict.
Financial models fail when the real world behaves in ways that are beyond what the model anticipated.
Not exact matches
In response to Einhorn's presentation, Assured Guaranty released a statement that said the investor's analysis «
fails to acknowledge the positive implications of our significant
financial strength and strong operating performance, and demonstrates a fundamental lack of understanding of our business
model and the municipal debt markets.»
So many brokers that are experienced in one or two forms of commercial financing
fail to incorporate
financial instruments in their business
model that they can earn residual income off of.
I'm not sure that something like this could have been heard above the din that came from a
failed financial model, the loss of an admittedly cool place to worship, and the general pushback against any sort of moral accountability.
«Our analysis —
modelled on the default scenario that the UK withdraws completely from the EU and
fails to reach trade and customs agreements with remaining EU member states — opens the door to the possibility that Scottish businesses and taxpayers will face a range of additional
financial burdens in the form of increased trading and labour costs.
Since, as Marcus notes, «some U.S. universities and colleges may be going the way of the music and journalism industries,» scientists at early stages of their careers may wish to consider whether they ought to tie their futures to institutions that,
failing drastic reform in the near future, will in many cases continue «facing skeptical customers, declining enrollment, an antiquated
financial model that is hemorrhaging money, and new kinds of low - cost competition.»
In the few years following publication of the 2007 scenarios, at least three major energy - market events
failed to fit the world energy
model: the 2008
financial crisis; the U.S. shale - gas boom; and Germany's decision, after the Fukushima nuclear disaster, to speed up its transition to renewables.
The problem is that when these
models fail to answer causal questions they do not answer anything at all and provide a false sense of reality of nowadays problems in
financial markets.
Any
financial modeler ought to bear unusual stressors in mind; either
modelling the extreme effects themselves, or (as I prefer)
fail - safe shutdown modes.
Many of us are afraid to write about issue that matters most because it is scary to contemplate how much
financial misery we have caused with our tolerance of the widespread promotion of Buy - and - Hold strategies (it is the Buy - and - Hold
Model — rooted in the long - discredited belief that markets are efficient — that is responsible for studies that
fail to take valuations into consideration when identifying safe withdrawal rates).
As a result, public investments in and control of compliance with targets falter, while the expansion of a global CO2 market is legitimized as a new form of
financial capital investment and a means to ensure the survival of a
failed production and consumption
model.
Again, show me scientists that buy pal reviewed lousy science with unusable proxys and
failed models who have no
financial stake in their position.
The Black Swan Theory was coined because Black - Scholes Option
models, upon which trillions of dollars in derivatives were based, started
failing their owners when the
financial universe changed.
If there is good reason to suppose that the paradigm is
failing or about to
fail, as there is with the current climate paradigm based on GCM
models and a perturbed equilibrium
model of response to changes in pCO2 or other greenhouse gases, then it becomes incumbent on corporate management to assure that plausible alternatives are investigated to the best of their judgment and ability, including
financial.
Sure, some people have built successful short - term trading
models, but people have mostly lost their shirts when they have tried to make long - term bets based on computer
financial models that beautifully matched history but
failed to accurately predict the future.