They find a higher climate sensitivity than most, the reason of which is not clear to me yet.
Not exact matches
When the scientists compared the output of
climate models with a decade of satellite measurements of relative humidity, they
found that the models that best reproduced observed conditions were built on the premise that
climate sensitivity is relatively
high — 7 degrees F or more.
«If the true
climate sensitivity really is as
high as 5 degrees C -LSB-(9 degrees F)-RSB-, the only way our descendants will
find that out is if they stubbornly hold greenhouse gas concentrations constant for centuries at our target stabilization level.»
National Geographic News reports that this week's issue of Nature will publish a study from a team led by Gabriele Hegerl of Duke University which
finds climate sensitivity of 1.5 º to 6.2 ºC, with a
higher end somewhat
higher than the standard range of 1.5 — 4.5 ºC.
Several studies have put the lower bound of
climate sensitivity at about 1.5 °C, on the other hand, several others have
found that a
sensitivity higher than 4.5 °C can't be ruled out.
National Geographic News reports that this week's issue of Nature will publish a study from a team led by Gabriele Hegerl of Duke University which
finds climate sensitivity of 1.5 º to 6.2 ºC, with a
higher end somewhat
higher than the standard range of 1.5 — 4.5 ºC.
Well I
find it sort of amusing (and a little tragic) that
climate scientists (at least the blogger ones) are patting themselves on the back over their
high standards of a press release that will just focus on the mundane «we also show a 3K
sensitivity as most likely.»
Interestingly, our results are actually pretty consistent with a lot of the recent literature on
sensitivity: All studies comparing simple models with recent
climate change (from Andronova and Schlesinger, 2001, onwards)
find high sensitivities (more than 8K, say) are consistent (at the few - percent level) with the observed record unless they are ruled out a priori.
Are there already hints in this mix of
findings that the
climate's
sensitivity to a CO2 buildup is at the
higher, lower or mid-range of what's possible?
When the reseachers at the Center for International
Climate and Environmental Research — Oslo (CICERO) applied their computer «model and statistics to analyse temperature readings from the air and ocean for the period ending in 2000, they found that climate sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration will most likely be 3.7 °C, which is somewhat higher than the IPCC prognosis.
Climate and Environmental Research — Oslo (CICERO) applied their computer «model and statistics to analyse temperature readings from the air and ocean for the period ending in 2000, they
found that
climate sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration will most likely be 3.7 °C, which is somewhat higher than the IPCC prognosis.
climate sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration will most likely be 3.7 °C, which is somewhat
higher than the IPCC prognosis.»
That
finding, supported by Forest 2006 Fig.S.7, means that the SFZ 2008 surface model data on their own provide very little discrimination against
high climate sensitivity, unlike the CSF 2005 data.
Brown and Caldeira
find a
climate sensitivity of 3.7 °C, which is significantly
higher than what most scientists use.
The BEST team also
found that the observed warming is consistent with an equilibrium
climate sensitivity of 3.1 ± 0.3 °C for CO2 doubling, in line with the IPCC
climate sensitivity range, and demonstrates once again that contrary to the persistent claims of Richard Lindzen, the Earth has warmed as much as we expect given a relatively
high climate sensitivity.
In the report, they
find reasons to dismiss the many studies and varying approaches that arrive at
higher climate sensitivity estimates, and fail to discuss the shortcomings of the lower
sensitivity studies that they prefer.
I would urge
climate scientists to test this mechanism, among others, in their GCM models so they can
find out exactly how much
higher climate sensitivity would be.
Interestingly, Penner et al.
find that whether the
climate sensitivity parameter is on the low or
high end, reducing anthropogenic emissions of the short - lived warming pollutants would achieve a significant reduction in global warming over the next 50 - 100 years.
Low
sensitivity likely The very
high complexity of IPCC Global
Climate Models with Armstrong's
findings infer that the IPCC's > 95 % confidence in > 50 % anthropogenic is «an illusion».
However, the report is biased towards Lewis» preferred approach,
finding poor excuses to reject the many other methods that arrive at
higher climate sensitivity estimates.
The results reduced uncertainty in proxy records and improved earlier estimates and contribute to our understanding of
climate change today, especially the
findings hint at a
higher climate sensitivity to CO2 emissions.
A recent study used NASA satellite observations to test the skill of
climate models in simulating this cloud - type transition, and
found that
high sensitivity models simulate it more accurately, while low
sensitivity models tend to overemphasize its
climate cooling effect.
It is somewhat analogous to the first cpdn paper when they basically said «we
found a
high sensitivity model that is compatible with the current
climate».
Further, as Reason Foundation Vice President Julian Morris «
finds the administration's estimates of the social cost of carbon are «biased upwards» due to their reliance on three «simplistic models, all of which use estimates of
climate sensitivity that are likely too
high and two of which likely overestimate the economic impact of
climate change.»