Climate and geophysical accuracy demands
fine modeling grids, and very large supercomputers.
And increasingly powerful computers can allow a better understanding of the uncertainties in our models,
finer model grids and more sophisticated descriptions of the processes that occur within them.
Not exact matches
Their
finest model used 3.5 kilometer
grids broken up vertically into 38 layers, so that it required 1.6 billion
grids to cover the globe.
As the researchers aim to
model even higher frequency motions between 5 to 10 hertz, they will need denser computational
grids and
finer time - steps, which will drive up computational demands.
Using a computer
model that fused air pollution and atmospheric chemistry data, they estimated what annual average levels of ozone (a key smog ingredient) and
fine particulates smaller than 2.5 microns (PM2.5) were in 2010 within 100 - km - by -100-km
grid squares across the world.
The European system also draws on more computing power, which enables the
model to run on a
finer grid, allowing higher resolution and better forecasts.
Would there be any advantage to having seperate
models at seperate scales, where smaller scale processes would be
modelled at
fine resolution, and the larger scale
model would, for each unit
grid and time, search the results of the smaller
model based on similarity of input conditions, perhaps interpolating and if necessary using a randomly chosen result based on probability distributions, and in the ocassion where the results of the smaller
model are too sparse, telling the smaller scale
model to do a new run (as time goes on this would happen less often)?
Downscaling may be done through empirical - statistical downscaling (ESD) or regional climate
models (RCMs) with a much
finer grid.
see Section 1 at http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2014/07/climate-forecasting-methods-and-cooling.html Here's an excerpt: «The
modelling approach is also inherently of no value for predicting future temperature with any calculable certainty because of the difficulty of specifying the initial conditions of a sufficiently
fine grained spatio - temporal
grid of a large number of variables with sufficient precision prior to multiple iterations.
Yet to
model tropical comvection cells (Tstorms) responsible for Lindzen's adaptive IR iris,
grid cells need to be on the order of 10 Km (and certainly
finer than 30).
Bearing in mind that the end user needs information regarding future rainfall at a much
finer scale than the simulator
grid, needs to know not just the amount but type of rainfall, e.g. a
model that drizzles a bit every day is not very helpful, so they do their own downscaling.
''...
models produce precipitation approximately twice as often as that observed and make rainfall far too lightly... The differences in the character of
model precipitation are systemic and have a number of important implications for
modeling the coupled Earth system... little skill in precipitation [is] calculated at individual
grid points, and thus applications involving downscaling of
grid point precipitation to yet even
finer ‐ scale resolution has little foundation and relevance to the real Earth system.»
The presence of higher spatial resolution information in the regional
models, beyond what can be accomplished by interpolation of the global
model output to a
finer grid mesh, is only an illusion of added skill.
Does the downscaling (in this case Type 4 downscaling) provide a more accurate result of climate variables requested by the impacts communities than can be achieved by interpolating the global parent
model prediction to the
finer grid and landscape?
Our lab is actively developing global atmospheric climate
models with roughly 50 and 25 km
grid spacing (even
finer models are being run very experimentally), and there are a number of related efforts around the world.
That being said, I have good faith in future
models as we go further toward first - principles, and
finer spatial
grids.
The current GFDL hurricane
model is a gridpoint
model that consists of three computational meshes which are nested together with increasingly
finer grid - point spacing in each mesh.
The GFDL hurricane
model (with a
grid spacing as
fine as 9 km) is able to simulate the frequency, intensity, and structure of the more intense hurricanes, such as category 3 - 5 storms, much more realistically than the regional (18 km
grid)
model.