Our expectation is that gradually higher levels of inflation breakevens will result from
firmer inflation data in the coming months, while a move higher in real rates will be virtuously tied to cyclical changes in real growth.
Not exact matches
Indeed, this trend was backed up by
data showing China «s imports rose for the first time in nearly two years in August as
firms restocked and wholesale
inflation expectations rose.
Recent economic
data point to some growth
firming,
inflation remains hard to find and long - term rates are up by barely 10 basis points (bps) from where they started the year, according to
data accessible via Bloomberg.
After a rough start to the year, economic
data have
firmed lately, with strength in housing, spending and retail sales pushing some Fed officials to believe that their
inflation target of 2 percent is within reach.
Using 45 years of NFIB and
inflation data makes it clear that serious
inflation for the economy is dependent on serious
inflation on Main Street — lots of
firms raising average selling prices.
Sentier Research, a private
firm working with publicly available government
data, estimates median incomes began to rise in mid-2014 and are now essentially back to where they when the recession began nearly nine years ago, after adjusting for
inflation.
Given that U.S. growth has
firmed and headline payrolls has been solid,
inflation (specifically wage growth) has been the missing key for the Fed; accordingly most attention will likely fall on the average hourly earnings
data which is seen rising slightly