Not exact matches
Anyway tropospheric
temperature trends and surface trends are broadly consistent with a
flat period after WW2.
The
flat period of
temperatures after WW2 has been sufficiently explained by an extended
period of industrial aerosols, and is before the modern global warming
period anyway.
Its a simple fact there were high aerosols through the middle of last century correlating with a
flat period of
temperatures quite well.
Given the decadal averages and the issue of what is meant by «the next» decade, Romm does have a point that the result of the paper could more clearly be described as representing «a
period of
flat global mean
temperatures extending somewhat into the coming decade, following by a very rapid rise in
temperature leaving the planet on its long - term trend line by 2030.»
B. Over the same time interval there have been
periods during which the reported «Annual
Temperature of the Earth (TOE)» has increased, others during which it decreased, and yet others, like the most recent 15 - 20 years over which it has remained statistically
flat.
IMO ground could only be gained either through a prolonged
period of
flat temperatures / cooling forcing a revision of consensus assumptions, or through a genius taking climate science to another level.
But looking at the big picture shown in the graph I posted, I see quite few time
periods where there were five or ten years of
flat or declining
temperatures (including several during the satellite era) very much like what we're seeing today.
simply look at three different
periods: 1959 - 1975 and 1998 - 2008 with near
flat or even cooling
temperatures and 1976 - 1997 with increasing
temperatures.»
The trend itself is (near) independent of
temperature, simply look at three different
periods: 1959 - 1975 and 1998 - 2008 with near
flat or even cooling
temperatures and 1976 - 1997 with increasing
temperatures.
How can you explain that an extreemly
temperature sensitive CO2 graph should have been so extreemly
flat in the
period 1920 - 40, when
temperatures where not at all
flat!
«If the surface
temperature resumed the warming rate that we observed from, say 1977 through 1998, we would still go close to a quarter of a century without significant net warming because there's such a long
flat period built into the record now.
Additionally, the observed surface
temperature changes over the past decade are within the range of model predictions (Figure 6) and decadal
periods of
flat temperatures during an overall long - term warming trend are predicted by climate models (Easterling & Wehner 2009).
Now we have 10 years of
flat temperature at the end of the time
period from 1977 - 2007 which must drastically reduce the calculated sensitivity from the one calculated looking only at the first 20 years of data.
Linear trends are appropriate for the time
period after 1990 where the data are described well by a linear trend plus interannual noise (that's why we show a linear trend for the satellite sea level in our paper), but they don't capture the longer - term climate evolution very well, e.g. the nearly
flat temperatures up to 1980.
this 18 year
flat period is an unqualified falsification of the central role of CO2 in earth
temperature behavior.
The same for the
period 2000 - current, where the
temperature is essentially
flat, but the CO2 levels increase faster and faster...
In other words, this prediction would seem reasonable if the nature of nature was linear and not Extremistan and we could count on a predictable continuation of the current
flat -
temperature period.
I would think that after about 17 years of an at least 30 year
period of relatively
flat temperatures, claims that «civilization as we know it» is ending would appear a little silly or that people would at least be embarrassed to repeat such claims.
The
flat or decreasing decadal
temperature outcome is not unprecedented, neither in the much - longer timespan
periods of large overall global
temperature rise we see historically nor in the GCMs.
Temperature has gone up in fits and starts over the 20th century;
periods of relatively
flat temperatures (circa 1945 - 1975, 1998 - 2013) punctuated by big increases (circa 1925 - 1945 and 1975 - 1998).
Earlier this year, a paper by Michael Mann - for years a leading light in the IPCC, and the author of the infamous «hockey stick graph» showing
flat temperatures for 2,000 years until the recent dizzying increase - made an extraordinary admission: that, as his critics had always claimed, there had indeed been a» medieval warm
period» around 1000 AD, when the world may well have been hotter than it is now.
Dr. Judith Curry recently compared five data sets of global
temperatures and found that all but one show the warming trend has been essentially
flat for various
periods exceeding 10 years in length during the past 18 years.
Robinson also told WND it's interesting to be living in a
period when carbon dioxide is rising, yet
temperatures are
flat or going down.
How many
periods would there have been when our forebears could have fooled themselves into thinking that
temperatures were
flat, or even cooling, and there was nothing happening to the climate?
Edim, the ENSO index does show more red, lots of which is in that 1979 - 95
period when the OLS for UAH
temperature anomalies is
flat.
The
flat period of
temperature rise will be famous to future scientists.
Not an exact science, else we would have profitable fortune tellers in abundance, but does the 2000 - 2010
temperature «
flat spot» occur as a slowing point on the long term rise from the LIA (perhaps to peak one or more 66 year
periods later in 2050 - 2060, 2120 - 2130)?
People on this site understand very well that the 2014 temp report is not alarming and that
temperatures are still remaining
flat despite a large increase in green house gasses over that
period.
«Incidentally, the Nino34
temperature anomaly is absolutely
flat over the
period from 1982 to present — there is only apparent atmospheric warming during this
period due to the natural recovery from two major volcanoes — El Chichon and Mt. Pinatubo.»
How do you explain that in the last 63 years, that only about 20 years showed
temperature rising above the 1940 level, and the last 10 to 16 (or whatever
period you choose) it has been
flat to down?
During this
period, when the
temperature started to warm something triggered a fast rise, which you can see in the
flat area of the histogram.
Tell us — how many «
flat» (and «declining») 10 - year
periods are there in the
temperature record for the last century of data?
But it's not only the «
flat»
period since 1998 (or 2001) that does not show a correlation between
temperature and CO2 as David Whitehouse has pointed out, and Mark Lynas has not been able to refute in his response.
Method The
period 1967 to 1987 will be used as a baseline to generate the capability benchmark for this process, NB this time
period is being arbitrarily chosen from its relation to a relatively
flat portion of the GISS global
temperature anomaly chart rather than by proper shopfloor assessment criteria.
No, Gregory Willits is apparently referring only to that half - cycle
period or so of warming that occurred about a half cycle of
flat temperatures ago.
If the elderly in the UK are forced to burn books for warmth this winter shall we associate that with lack of preparation for a
period of
flat temperatures due to the AMO / PDO or what to expect for three to seven more decades of a «warming hiatus?»