Additionally, the observed surface temperature changes over the past decade are within the range of model predictions (Figure 6) and decadal periods of
flat temperatures during an overall long - term warming trend are predicted by climate models (Easterling & Wehner 2009).
Not exact matches
There is a hump in both the solar and aa index around 1950,
during which time the
temperature is
flat or decreasing.
By contrast, the actual SLR estimate
during that same interval is relatively
flat, suggesting that
temperatures were not as warm as indicated by the
temperature reconstruction.
Climate skeptics often argue that,
during the last fifteen years, global
temperatures have been nearly
flat and that climate models are unable to predict or explain this pattern.
B. Over the same time interval there have been periods
during which the reported «Annual
Temperature of the Earth (TOE)» has increased, others
during which it decreased, and yet others, like the most recent 15 - 20 years over which it has remained statistically
flat.
Solar activity has been
flat over the past half century,
during which time global surface
temperatures increased over a half degreee Celsius.
But looking at the big picture shown in the graph I posted, I see quite few time periods where there were five or ten years of
flat or declining
temperatures (including several
during the satellite era) very much like what we're seeing today.
However, I note that in my Hadcrut3 data, downloaded 14/10/2012 from http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/
temperature/hadcrut3gl.txt, the global
temperature is overall prettty
flat during the 1980s within a longer warming trend.
If we choose a starting point of late 1997 or early 1999,
temperatures have been
flat during the past 15 and 17 years.
This variation plus a constant.5 deg / century trend accounts for all of the observed trend since 1850, the increase in slope
during the 80s and 90s and the current
flat temperature trend.
Dr. Judith Curry recently compared five data sets of global
temperatures and found that all but one show the warming trend has been essentially
flat for various periods exceeding 10 years in length
during the past 18 years.
AGW is by no means disproven by the last 15 to 18 years of arguably
flat temperatures, just as it was by no means proven by the
temperature rise that occurred
during the ENSO event or since the end of the LIA or the Dalton minimum.
And yet the problem with the uptick is not that it should be
flat, rather it is that their reconstruction does not provide a reasonable constraint on global mean
temperatures during the last few centuries.
«Incidentally, the Nino34
temperature anomaly is absolutely
flat over the period from 1982 to present — there is only apparent atmospheric warming
during this period due to the natural recovery from two major volcanoes — El Chichon and Mt. Pinatubo.»
During this period, when the
temperature started to warm something triggered a fast rise, which you can see in the
flat area of the histogram.
But you also see typical ups and downs:
During the first two decades,
temperatures were fairly
flat, and increases were below the three - decade average.
During the winter months, a
flat rate of $ 12.95 will apply as all orders will need to be shipped express to avoid prolonged exposure to extreme cold
temperatures.