According to Kahneman, the flaw in their reasoning was that they had attached a causal interpretation to the inevitable
fluctuations of a random process.
Not exact matches
The choice between these possible futures is made, in a condition
of chemical instability, by stochastic (nondeterministic)
processes, such as
random internal
fluctuations of the system.
Jochem Marotzke and Piers M. Forster have now explained the warming pause in terms
of random fluctuations arising from chaotic
processes in the climate system.
I won't comment further than to say this: it's funny how all the warming is an ongoing
process due to mankind, but any cooling there might be is a
random fluctuation on top
of an overall warming signal.
If individuals are confined to climatically unsuitable areas, the likelihood
of population decline is enhanced, resulting in high likelihood
of extinction if population size falls below critical values, from
processes such as
random fluctuations in population size (Maurer, 1999) or Allee effects (Stephens et al., 1999).
A weakness
of the correlational approach used here is the degree to which this pattern
of results could occur as a result
of random processes such as genetic drift (
fluctuations in allele frequency due to chance; Keinan et al., 2007).